热门分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，卡尔达诺 (ADA) 兑比特币 (BTC) 可能会在 2024 年结束之前再次下跌

备受关注的分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，在 2024 年结束之前，卡尔达诺 (ADA) 兑比特币 (ADA/BTC) 的价格很可能会再次下跌。

Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Cardano (ADA) is likely to experience one more decline against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before 2024 concludes.

受欢迎的加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，在 2024 年结束之前，卡尔达诺 (ADA) 兑比特币 (ADA/BTC) 可能会再次下跌。

In a recent video update shared with his 889,100 followers on the social media platform X, Cowen highlights that historically, ADA has oscillated against BTC within a range of 400 to 4,000 satoshis (sats), making final declines at the end of the halving year.

Cowen 最近在社交媒体平台 X 上与他的 889,100 名粉丝分享了一段视频更新，他强调，从历史上看，ADA 兑 BTC 的波动幅度在 400 到 4,000 聪（sats）之间，并在减半年末最终下跌。

The analyst notes that coinciding with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern is the fact that monetary policy is still relatively restrictive and that the US dollar is rallying – two conditions that are typically bearish for risk assets like crypto.

该分析师指出，与 ADA/BTC 四年期模式相一致的事实是，货币政策仍然相对严格，而且美元正在上涨——这两个条件通常对加密货币等风险资产不利。

“I think ADA/BTC will get one more drop before EOY (end of year) and then go up in 2025.

“我认为 ADA/BTC 将在 EOY（年底）之前再次下跌，然后在 2025 年上涨。

Showing some stats for comparison…

显示一些统计数据以供比较...

Nov 2020 low: 583 sats

2020 年 11 月最低点：583 sats

Nov 2020 high: 995 sats

2020 年 11 月最高点：995 sats

Dec 2020 low: 503 sats

2020 年 12 月最低点：503 sats

Nov 2024 low: 470 sats

2024 年 11 月低点：470 sats

Nov 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)

2024 年 11 月最高点：903 sats（到目前为止）

Dec 2024 low: ???

2024 年 12 月低点：???

If QT (quantitative tightening) were over I would be more inclined to say it does not have to drop again (since BTC dominance already hit 60% and ADA/BTC went to 470 sats (and my multi-year target was 400 sats).

如果 QT（量化紧缩）结束，我更倾向于说它不必再次下降（因为 BTC 主导地位已经达到 60%，ADA/BTC 达到 470 sats（我的多年目标是 400 sats）。

But with QT continuing and DXY (US dollar index) rallying, I don’t think we can dismiss another drop by ADA/BTC before EOY.”

但随着 QT 的持续和 DXY（美元指数）的上涨，我认为我们不能忽视 ADA/BTC 在 EOY 之前再次下跌。”

Cowen has the same general view on altcoins at large. He shares a chart that looks at the TOTAL3-USDT, which measures the total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins.

考恩对整个山寨币也有同样的看法。他分享了一张 TOTAL3-USDT 图表，该图表衡量了不包括比特币、以太坊 (ETH) 和稳定币的加密货币总市值。

The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT versus Bitcoin is struggling to breach a level reached in late 2020, suggesting that altcoins could still get much weaker.

该分析师指出，TOTAL3-USDT 与比特币的价格正在努力突破 2020 年底达到的水平，这表明山寨币仍可能变得更加疲软。

“Imagine now being able to say that BTC dominance (BTC.D) dropped to 60%.

“想象一下现在可以说 BTC 的主导地位 (BTC.D) 下降到 60%。

I am open-minded to the top for dominance being in, but my main concern for that view is that ALT/BTC pairs are still well off their historic lows.

我对高层的主导地位持开放态度，但我对这种观点的主要担忧是 ALT/BTC 货币对仍远低于历史低点。

Additionally, QT continues, DXY and yields are going up, and BTC.D historically goes up in December of halving years.”

此外，QT 仍在继续，DXY 和收益率正在上涨，而 BTC.D 历史上在减半年的 12 月会上涨。”

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