熱門分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，卡爾達諾 (ADA) 兌比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在 2024 年結束之前再次下跌

備受關注的分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，在 2024 年結束之前，卡爾達諾 (ADA) 兌比特幣 (ADA/BTC) 的價格很可能會再次下跌。

Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Cardano (ADA) is likely to experience one more decline against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) before 2024 concludes.

受歡迎的加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，在 2024 年結束之前，卡爾達諾 (ADA) 兌比特幣 (ADA/BTC) 可能會再次下跌。

In a recent video update shared with his 889,100 followers on the social media platform X, Cowen highlights that historically, ADA has oscillated against BTC within a range of 400 to 4,000 satoshis (sats), making final declines at the end of the halving year.

Cowen 最近在社群媒體平台X 上與他的889,100 名粉絲分享了一段影片更新，他強調，從歷史上看，ADA 兌BTC 的波動幅度在400 到4,000 聰（sats）之間，並在減半年末最終下跌。

The analyst notes that coinciding with the four-year ADA/BTC pattern is the fact that monetary policy is still relatively restrictive and that the US dollar is rallying – two conditions that are typically bearish for risk assets like crypto.

該分析師指出，與 ADA/BTC 四年期模式一致的事實是，貨幣政策仍然相對嚴格，而且美元正在上漲——這兩個條件通常對加密貨幣等風險資產不利。

“I think ADA/BTC will get one more drop before EOY (end of year) and then go up in 2025.

「我認為 ADA/BTC 將在 EOY（年底）之前再次下跌，然後在 2025 年上漲。

Showing some stats for comparison…

顯示一些統計數據以供比較...

Nov 2020 low: 583 sats

2020 年 11 月最低點：583 sats

Nov 2020 high: 995 sats

2020 年 11 月最高點：995 年 sats

Dec 2020 low: 503 sats

2020 年 12 月最低點：503 sats

Nov 2024 low: 470 sats

2024 年 11 月低點：470 sats

Nov 2024 high: 903 sats (so far)

2024 年 11 月最高點：903 sats（到目前為止）

Dec 2024 low: ???

2024 年 12 月低點：???

If QT (quantitative tightening) were over I would be more inclined to say it does not have to drop again (since BTC dominance already hit 60% and ADA/BTC went to 470 sats (and my multi-year target was 400 sats).

如果 QT（量化緊縮）結束，我更傾向於說它不必再次下降（因為 BTC 主導地位已經達到 60%，ADA/BTC 達到 470 sats（我的多年目標是 400 sats）。

But with QT continuing and DXY (US dollar index) rallying, I don’t think we can dismiss another drop by ADA/BTC before EOY.”

但隨著 QT 的持續和 DXY（美元指數）的上漲，我認為我們不能忽視 ADA/BTC 在 EOY 之前再次下跌。

Cowen has the same general view on altcoins at large. He shares a chart that looks at the TOTAL3-USDT, which measures the total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins.

考恩對整個山寨幣也有同樣的看法。他分享了一張 TOTAL3-USDT 圖表，該圖表衡量了不包括比特幣、以太坊 (ETH) 和穩定幣的加密貨幣總市值。

The analyst notes that TOTAL3-USDT versus Bitcoin is struggling to breach a level reached in late 2020, suggesting that altcoins could still get much weaker.

該分析師指出，TOTAL3-USDT 與比特幣的價格正在努力突破 2020 年底達到的水平，這表明山寨幣仍可能變得更加疲軟。

“Imagine now being able to say that BTC dominance (BTC.D) dropped to 60%.

「想像一下現在可以說 BTC 的主導地位 (BTC.D) 下降到 60%。

I am open-minded to the top for dominance being in, but my main concern for that view is that ALT/BTC pairs are still well off their historic lows.

我對高層的主導地位持開放態度，但我對這種觀點的主要擔憂是 ALT/BTC 貨幣對仍遠低於歷史低點。

Additionally, QT continues, DXY and yields are going up, and BTC.D historically goes up in December of halving years.”

此外，QT 仍在繼續，DXY 和收益率正在上漲，而 BTC.D 歷史上在減半年的 12 月會上漲。

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