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预测网站可以使用代币作为用户验证现实世界事件结果的一种方式
Web3 prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly seeking $50 million in fresh funding, an endeavor that could see investors acquiring token warrants.
据报道,Web3 预测市场平台 Polymarket 正在寻求 5000 万美元的新资金,投资者可能会购买代币认股权证。
The development was reported by The Information on Sept. 23, with the publication adding that investors backing the round would also receive the right to purchase tokens if Polymarket proceeds with the issuance.
The Information 于 9 月 23 日报道了这一进展,并补充说,如果 Polymarket 继续发行,支持该轮融资的投资者还将获得购买代币的权利。
According to The Information’s anonymous sources, the prediction site could use the tokens to enable users to validate the outcome of real-world events.
据 The Information 的匿名消息人士称,预测网站可以使用代币来让用户验证现实世界事件的结果。
Currently, Polymarket leverages UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO), a system used to resolve disputes and validate real-world outcomes. Contracts on Polymarket can request data from the OO, which then supplies an outcome. However, if this result is disputed, the case escalates to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM), through which UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome.
目前,Polymarket 利用 UMA 的 Optimistic Oracle (OO),这是一个用于解决争议和验证现实世界结果的系统。 Polymarket 上的合约可以向 OO 请求数据,然后由 OO 提供结果。然而,如果这一结果存在争议,案件将升级至 UMA 的数据验证机制(DVM),UMA 代币持有者通过该机制投票选出正确的结果。
Should Polymarket proceed with its token launch, the new token could integrate into this process, potentially supplementing or replacing its reliance on UMA by bringing dispute resolution in-house.
如果 Polymarket 继续推出代币,新代币可以整合到这一流程中,通过内部争议解决来补充或取代其对 UMA 的依赖。
As of press time, Polymarket did not respond to The Defiant’s request to comment on the matter.
截至发稿,Polymarket 尚未回应 The Defiant 就此事置评的请求。
The report of Polymarket’s plan to introduce a token comes against the backdrop of an increasing number of disputes between Polymarket and UMA’s event resolution mechanisms.
Polymarket 计划推出代币的报道是在 Polymarket 与 UMA 事件解决机制之间的争议不断增加的背景下发布的。
In June, tensions between Polymarket and UMA erupted when a prediction market regarding Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in the creation of a meme coin called DJT stirred controversy.
6 月,Polymarket 和 UMA 之间的紧张关系爆发,当时有关巴伦·特朗普涉嫌参与创建名为 DJT 的模因币的预测市场引发了争议。
Initially, UMA’s oracle system resolved the market in favor of the "no" side, but Polymarket later overruled this decision, asserting that Barron Trump was involved "in some way." Polymarket said it would refund holders of the "yes" contract, despite UMA’s majority vote favoring the opposite outcome.
最初,UMA 的预言机系统对市场做出了有利于“反对”一方的裁决,但 Polymarket 后来否决了这一决定,声称巴伦·特朗普“以某种方式”参与其中。 Polymarket 表示,尽管 UMA 的多数票支持相反的结果,但它将向“是”合同的持有者退款。
According to the market’s terms, UMA token holders voted multiple times, rejecting the claim that Barron Trump had any involvement with the DJT token. However, Polymarket stepped in, indicating the platform believed the oracle got it wrong.
根据市场条款,UMA 代币持有者多次投票,驳回了巴伦·特朗普与 DJT 代币有任何关系的说法。然而,Polymarket 介入,表明该平台认为预言机弄错了。
A similar incident occurred in May when Polymarket bettors challenged UMA’s resolution regarding a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), which UMA found to have been approved despite the funds remaining under review by the SEC.
5 月份也发生过类似事件,当时 Polymarket 投注者对 UMA 关于以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 现货的决议提出质疑,尽管该基金仍在接受 SEC 的审查,但 UMA 发现该决议已获得批准。
Meanwhile, the news of Polymarket’s funding round comes as the platform is enjoying a surge in activity amid a frenzy of betting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
与此同时,Polymarket 融资的消息传出之际,该平台正因对 2024 年美国总统大选的疯狂押注而活动激增。
As of September, Polymarket users have placed a total of $993.1 million worth of bets on who will win the presidency, alongside $223.6 million on the popular vote market.
截至 9 月份,Polymarket 用户已对谁将赢得总统职位进行了总计 9.931 亿美元的投注,同时在大众投票市场上进行了 2.236 亿美元的投注。
The platform has posted new all-time highs for trade volume and users for the past four consecutive months. In August, the platform hosted $472.9 worth of predictions from 63,616, marking year-over-year volume and user increases of 5,900% and 2,985% according to Dune data compiled by Richard Chen.
该平台的交易量和用户量连续四个月创下历史新高。根据 Richard Chen 编制的 Dune 数据,8 月份,该平台收到了来自 63,616 条预测,价值 472.9 美元,同比增长 5,900% 和 2,985%。
Polymarket’s momentum has continued to grow throughout September, with the platform posting record daily volume of $37.3 million on Sept. 11 and hosting an all-time high of 12,649 daily users on Sept. 18. Over the past seven days, election markets accounted for 86% of volume and 74% of users.
Polymarket 的势头在整个 9 月份持续增长,该平台在 9 月 11 日创下了 3,730 万美元的日交易量纪录,并在 9 月 18 日拥有 12,649 名每日用户,创下历史新高。在过去 7 天里,选举市场占了 86 % 的数量和 74% 的用户。
However, Polymarket’s success is also drawing increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators.
然而,Polymarket 的成功也引起了美国监管机构越来越严格的审查。
On Sept.18, Rostin Behnam, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), raised concerns about Polymarket potentially offering services to U.S. residents without proper registration.
9月18日,美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)主席Rostin Behnam对Polymarket可能在未经适当注册的情况下向美国居民提供服务表示担忧。
“If anyone, Polymarket or otherwise, conducts themselves in a way that breaks the law, we will use our civil enforcement authority to make sure that conduct stops,” Behnam said.
贝纳姆说:“如果有人,无论是 Polymarket 还是其他地方,有违法行为,我们将利用我们的民事执法机构来确保这种行为停止。”
In January 2022, the platform settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million after allegedly offering more than 900 event-based binary options markets without the required registrations. Following the settlement, Polymarket restricted access for users with U.S. IP addresses, though reports indicate that some American traders continue to bypass these restrictions by using VPNs to place bets.
2022 年 1 月,该平台涉嫌在未进行必要注册的情况下提供 900 多个基于事件的二元期权市场,并以 140 万美元与 CFTC 达成和解。和解后,Polymarket 限制了拥有美国 IP 地址的用户的访问,但有报告表明,一些美国交易者继续通过使用 VPN 来绕过这些限制进行投注。
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