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預測網站可以使用代幣作為用戶驗證現實世界事件結果的一種方式
Web3 prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly seeking $50 million in fresh funding, an endeavor that could see investors acquiring token warrants.
據報道,Web3 預測市場平台 Polymarket 正在尋求 5,000 萬美元的新資金,投資者可能會購買代幣認股權證。
The development was reported by The Information on Sept. 23, with the publication adding that investors backing the round would also receive the right to purchase tokens if Polymarket proceeds with the issuance.
The Information 於 9 月 23 日報告了這一進展,並補充說,如果 Polymarket 繼續發行,支持該輪融資的投資者還將獲得購買代幣的權利。
According to The Information’s anonymous sources, the prediction site could use the tokens to enable users to validate the outcome of real-world events.
據 The Information 的匿名消息人士稱,預測網站可以使用代幣來讓用戶驗證現實世界事件的結果。
Currently, Polymarket leverages UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO), a system used to resolve disputes and validate real-world outcomes. Contracts on Polymarket can request data from the OO, which then supplies an outcome. However, if this result is disputed, the case escalates to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM), through which UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome.
目前,Polymarket 利用 UMA 的 Optimistic Oracle (OO),這是一個用於解決爭議和驗證現實世界結果的系統。 Polymarket 上的合約可以向 OO 要求數據,然後由 OO 提供結果。然而,如果這一結果有爭議,案件將升級至 UMA 的數據驗證機制(DVM),UMA 代幣持有者透過該機制投票選出正確的結果。
Should Polymarket proceed with its token launch, the new token could integrate into this process, potentially supplementing or replacing its reliance on UMA by bringing dispute resolution in-house.
如果 Polymarket 繼續推出代幣,新代幣可以整合到此流程中,透過內部爭議解決來補充或取代其對 UMA 的依賴。
As of press time, Polymarket did not respond to The Defiant’s request to comment on the matter.
截至發稿,Polymarket 尚未回應 The Defiant 就此事置評的請求。
The report of Polymarket’s plan to introduce a token comes against the backdrop of an increasing number of disputes between Polymarket and UMA’s event resolution mechanisms.
Polymarket 計劃推出代幣的報告是在 Polymarket 與 UMA 事件解決機制之間的爭議不斷增加的背景下發布的。
In June, tensions between Polymarket and UMA erupted when a prediction market regarding Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in the creation of a meme coin called DJT stirred controversy.
6 月,Polymarket 和 UMA 之間的緊張關係爆發,當時有關巴倫·川普涉嫌參與創建名為 DJT 的模因幣的預測市場引發了爭議。
Initially, UMA’s oracle system resolved the market in favor of the "no" side, but Polymarket later overruled this decision, asserting that Barron Trump was involved "in some way." Polymarket said it would refund holders of the "yes" contract, despite UMA’s majority vote favoring the opposite outcome.
最初,UMA 的預言機系統對市場做出了有利於「反對」一方的裁決,但 Polymarket 後來否決了這一決定,聲稱巴倫·川普「以某種方式」參與其中。 Polymarket 表示,儘管 UMA 的多數票支持相反的結果,但它將向「是」合約的持有者退款。
According to the market’s terms, UMA token holders voted multiple times, rejecting the claim that Barron Trump had any involvement with the DJT token. However, Polymarket stepped in, indicating the platform believed the oracle got it wrong.
根據市場條款,UMA 代幣持有者多次投票,駁回了巴倫·川普與 DJT 代幣有任何關係的說法。然而,Polymarket 介入,顯示該平台認為預言機弄錯了。
A similar incident occurred in May when Polymarket bettors challenged UMA’s resolution regarding a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), which UMA found to have been approved despite the funds remaining under review by the SEC.
5 月也發生類似事件,當時 Polymarket 投注者對 UMA 關於以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 現貨的決議提出質疑,儘管該基金仍在接受 SEC 的審查,但 UMA 發現該決議已獲得批准。
Meanwhile, the news of Polymarket’s funding round comes as the platform is enjoying a surge in activity amid a frenzy of betting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
與此同時,Polymarket 融資的消息傳出之際,該平台正因對 2024 年美國總統大選的瘋狂押注而活動激增。
As of September, Polymarket users have placed a total of $993.1 million worth of bets on who will win the presidency, alongside $223.6 million on the popular vote market.
截至 9 月份,Polymarket 用戶已對誰將贏得總統職位進行了總計 9.931 億美元的投注,同時在大眾投票市場上進行了 2.236 億美元的投注。
The platform has posted new all-time highs for trade volume and users for the past four consecutive months. In August, the platform hosted $472.9 worth of predictions from 63,616, marking year-over-year volume and user increases of 5,900% and 2,985% according to Dune data compiled by Richard Chen.
該平台的交易量和用戶量連續四個月創下歷史新高。根據 Richard Chen 編制的 Dune 數據,8 月份,該平台收到了來自 63,616 條預測,價值 472.9 美元,年增 5,900% 和 2,985%。
Polymarket’s momentum has continued to grow throughout September, with the platform posting record daily volume of $37.3 million on Sept. 11 and hosting an all-time high of 12,649 daily users on Sept. 18. Over the past seven days, election markets accounted for 86% of volume and 74% of users.
Polymarket 的勢頭在整個9 月持續增長,該平台在9 月11 日創下了3,730 萬美元的日交易量紀錄,並在9 月18 日擁有12,649 名每日用戶,創下歷史新高。 ,選舉市場佔了86 % 的數量和 74% 的用戶。
However, Polymarket’s success is also drawing increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators.
然而,Polymarket 的成功也引起了美國監管機構越來越嚴格的審查。
On Sept.18, Rostin Behnam, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), raised concerns about Polymarket potentially offering services to U.S. residents without proper registration.
9月18日,美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)主席Rostin Behnam對Polymarket可能在未經適當註冊的情況下向美國居民提供服務表示擔憂。
“If anyone, Polymarket or otherwise, conducts themselves in a way that breaks the law, we will use our civil enforcement authority to make sure that conduct stops,” Behnam said.
貝納姆說:“如果有人,無論是 Polymarket 還是其他地方,有違法行為,我們將利用我們的民事執法機構來確保這種行為停止。”
In January 2022, the platform settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million after allegedly offering more than 900 event-based binary options markets without the required registrations. Following the settlement, Polymarket restricted access for users with U.S. IP addresses, though reports indicate that some American traders continue to bypass these restrictions by using VPNs to place bets.
2022 年 1 月,該平台涉嫌在未進行必要註冊的情況下提供 900 多個基於事件的二元期權市場,並以 140 萬美元與 CFTC 達成和解。和解後,Polymarket 限制了擁有美國 IP 位址的用戶的訪問,但有報告表明,一些美國交易者繼續透過使用 VPN 來繞過這些限制進行投注。
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