PlanB 的比特币重磅炸弹：到 2024 年将空前飙升至 10 万美元

基于 Stock-to-Flow (S2F) 模型，这一广泛使用的模型背后的创建者 PlanB 认为，比特币正处于显着增长的边缘，有可能在 2024 年达到 10 万美元的价值。

PlanB's Bold Prediction: Bitcoin Poised for Unprecedented Surge, Surpassing $100,000 in 2024

PlanB 大胆预测：比特币将迎来前所未有的飙升，2024 年突破 10 万美元

In a highly anticipated announcement, PlanB, the creator of the renowned Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has issued a groundbreaking prediction: Bitcoin is on the cusp of an extraordinary surge, with a potential value exceeding $100,000 by 2024. This bold forecast has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, stirring both excitement and intrigue.

在备受期待的公告中，著名的 Stock-to-Flow (S2F) 模型的创建者 PlanB 发布了一项开创性的预测：比特币正处于非凡飙升的风口浪尖，到 2024 年其潜在价值将超过 100,000 美元。预测在加密货币社区引起了震动，激起了人们的兴奋和好奇。

PlanB, renowned for his remarkable market accuracy, anchors his prediction firmly on the Stock-to-Flow model, a widely embraced metric that correlates Bitcoin's scarcity with its price. Despite Bitcoin's recent closing value slightly below $60,000, PlanB underscores its resilience, boasting a remarkable 36% year-over-year growth. He places immense significance on the current month, the last "Blue Dot" before the next halving, aligning with historical data that has consistently shown Bitcoin's price in sync with the Stock-to-Flow model at this pivotal juncture.

PlanB 以其卓越的市场准确性而闻名，他的预测牢牢地基于库存流量模型，这是一种广泛接受的指标，将比特币的稀缺性与其价格联系起来。尽管比特币近期收盘价略低于 60,000 美元，但 PlanB 仍强调其韧性，同比增长 36%。他对当前月份（下一次减半前的最后一个“蓝点”）给予了巨大的重视，并与历史数据保持一致，这些数据始终显示比特币的价格与库存流量模型在这个关键时刻保持同步。

While acknowledging that Bitcoin's average price currently falls short of the initial projection of $55,000, PlanB maintains that it remains within the same order of magnitude. His analysis further reveals that Bitcoin's value could soar to unprecedented heights, potentially surpassing $100,000 and reaching as high as $500,000 by 2028. This forecast stems from the projected necessity for mining revenue to rebound within four to eight months after halving. With Bitcoin currently valued at $60,000, PlanB posits that $100,000 is entirely achievable within this year.

尽管承认比特币的平均价格目前低于最初预测的 55,000 美元，但 PlanB 坚称其仍保持在同一数量级内。他的分析进一步表明，比特币的价值可能飙升至前所未有的高度，有可能超过 10 万美元，到 2028 年最高可达 50 万美元。这一预测源于预计挖矿收入在减半后四到八个月内反弹的必要性。鉴于比特币目前的价值为 60,000 美元，PlanB 认为今年内完全可以实现 100,000 美元的目标。

PlanB's predictions extend beyond 2024, envisioning a bull market peak in 2025. He meticulously examines diminishing returns to determine whether Bitcoin's price will exhibit a gradual or exponential trajectory. Amidst varying perspectives, PlanB staunchly upholds the accuracy of the Stock-to-Flow model, suggesting exponential returns, particularly given Bitcoin's nascent adoption rate.

PlanB 的预测持续到 2024 年之后，预计牛市将在 2025 年达到顶峰。他仔细研究了收益递减，以确定比特币的价格是否会呈现渐进或指数轨迹。尽管有不同的观点，PlanB 坚定地维护 Stock-to-Flow 模型的准确性，表明指数回报，特别是考虑到比特币的新生采用率。

Beyond the Stock-to-Flow model, PlanB draws upon a comprehensive array of technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 200-week moving average. The RSI has normalized, falling from a previous peak of 77 to 66, indicating potential for further price increases, especially as the "Blue Dots" transition to "Red Dots" in the coming months. The 200-week moving average serves as a conservative floor, providing potential support levels during bull markets.

除了 Stock-to-Flow 模型之外，PlanB 还利用了一系列全面的技术指标，包括相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和 200 周移动平均线。 RSI 已正常化，从之前的峰值 77 降至 66，表明价格有进一步上涨的潜力，特别是在未来几个月从“蓝点”过渡到“红点”时。 200 周移动平均线作为保守的下限，在牛市期间提供潜在的支撑位。

Despite short-term fluctuations, with potential 20-30% dips, analysts like PlanB advocate for patience and a long-term perspective for investors. They suggest that the peak may not fully materialize until 2025. The stage is set, and the anticipation is palpable as Bitcoin embarks on a thrilling journey ahead.

尽管存在短期波动，可能会下跌 20-30%，但 PlanB 等分析师仍主张投资者保持耐心并保持长远眼光。他们认为，峰值可能要到 2025 年才会完全实现。随着比特币即将踏上激动人心的旅程，舞台已经搭建好，人们的期待也显而易见。