随着比特币交易价格接近 9.5 万美元，Peter Thiel 的泡沫框架为加密货币投资者提供了及时的分析工具

PayPal Holdings Inc. 联合创始人 Peter Thiel 的识别市场泡沫的框架为加密货币投资者提供了及时的分析工具，将历史狂热与当前市场动态进行了比较。

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel’s framework for identifying market bubbles could be a useful analytical tool for crypto investors as Bitcoin trades close to $95,000.

随着比特币交易价格接近 95,000 美元，PayPal 联合创始人 Peter Thiel 的识别市场泡沫的框架可能成为加密货币投资者的有用分析工具。

Thiel outlined three key bubble indicators during a Yale Political Union talk in October: extreme abstraction, unsustainable exponential growth, and psychosocial mania. His insights become especially relevant in the context of cryptocurrency markets reaching new highs to kick off 2025.

泰尔在 10 月份耶鲁大学政治联盟演讲中概述了三个关键的泡沫指标：极端抽象、不可持续的指数增长和社会心理狂热。在加密货币市场在 2025 年开始达到新高的背景下，他的见解变得尤为重要。

“Bubbles have this aspect where they are incredibly hard to define, they involve these incredible abstractions,” Thiel said at Yale, implicitly drawing a parallel to crypto markets.

“泡沫有一个难以定义的方面，它们涉及这些令人难以置信的抽象，”蒂尔在耶鲁大学说，含蓄地将其与加密货币市场进行了比较。

This observation comes several months after his August appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, during which he called Bitcoin “a moderately big invention” that was “systematically underestimated for the first 10-11 years.”

这一观察是在他 8 月份出现在 Joe Rogan Experience 播客中几个月后发表的，期间他称比特币是“一个相当大的发明”，“在最初的 10-11 年里被系统性地低估了”。

Thiel’s second indicator points to exponential growth patterns. “Things that are exponential are extremely powerful but extremely unsustainable,” he explained. This perspective gains significance as Bitcoin’s market capitalization approaches record levels, with the cryptocurrency showing a 47.73% gain in Q4 2024.

蒂尔的第二个指标指向指数增长模式。 “指数级的事物极其强大，但极其不可持续，”他解释道。随着比特币的市值接近创纪录水平，这种观点变得越来越重要，该加密货币在 2024 年第四季度上涨了 47.73%。

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Thiel’s third indicator — psychosocial mania — resonates strongly with cryptocurrency markets. “There is a psychosocial component. It’s a sort of mania — the tulip bubble,” Thiel said, referencing the 17th-century Dutch tulip bubble that many critics have likened to today’s crypto markets.

泰尔的第三个指标——社会心理狂热——与加密货币市场产生了强烈共鸣。 “其中存在心理社会因素。这是一种狂热——郁金香泡沫。”Thiel 说道，他指的是 17 世纪的荷兰郁金香泡沫，许多评论家将其比作当今的加密货币市场。

Despite these cautionary frameworks, Thiel’s Founders Fund reportedly invested $200 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum in late 2023. However, by July, Thiel expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s further growth potential, telling CNBC in an interview, “I’m not sure it’s going to go up that dramatically from here.”

尽管有这些警示框架，据报道，蒂尔的创始人基金在 2023 年末向比特币和以太坊投资了 2 亿美元。然而，到了 7 月，蒂尔对比特币的进一步增长潜力表示怀疑，他在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，“我不确定它会继续发展”。从这里开始急剧上升。”

The billionaire’s insights come as PayPal, the company he co-founded, continues to expand its cryptocurrency services, bridging traditional finance with digital assets. This integration reflects Thiel’s observation of Bitcoin’s evolution from a “cypherpunk, crypto-anarchist” tool to a mainstream financial asset.

这位亿万富翁的见解是在他共同创立的 PayPal 不断扩展其加密货币服务、将传统金融与数字资产联系起来之际发表的。这种整合反映了蒂尔对比特币从“密码朋克、加密无政府主义”工具演变为主流金融资产的观察。

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

该内容部分是在人工智能工具的帮助下制作的，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。