隨著比特幣交易價格接近 95,000 美元，Peter Thiel 的泡沫框架為加密貨幣投資者提供了及時的分析工具

PayPal Holdings Inc. 聯合創始人 Peter Thiel 的識別市場泡沫的框架為加密貨幣投資者提供了及時的分析工具，將歷史狂熱與當前市場動態進行了比較。

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel’s framework for identifying market bubbles could be a useful analytical tool for crypto investors as Bitcoin trades close to $95,000.

隨著比特幣交易價格接近 95,000 美元，PayPal 聯合創始人 Peter Thiel 的識別市場泡沫的框架可能成為加密貨幣投資者的有用分析工具。

Thiel outlined three key bubble indicators during a Yale Political Union talk in October: extreme abstraction, unsustainable exponential growth, and psychosocial mania. His insights become especially relevant in the context of cryptocurrency markets reaching new highs to kick off 2025.

蒂爾在 10 月耶魯大學政治聯盟演講中概述了三個關鍵的泡沫指標：極端抽象、不可持續的指數增長和社會心理狂熱。在加密貨幣市場在 2025 年開始達到新高的背景下，他的見解變得特別重要。

“Bubbles have this aspect where they are incredibly hard to define, they involve these incredible abstractions,” Thiel said at Yale, implicitly drawing a parallel to crypto markets.

「泡沫有一個難以定義的方面，它們涉及這些令人難以置信的抽象，」蒂爾在耶魯大學說，含蓄地將其與加密貨幣市場進行了比較。

This observation comes several months after his August appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, during which he called Bitcoin “a moderately big invention” that was “systematically underestimated for the first 10-11 years.”

這一觀察是在他8 月出現在Joe Rogan Experience 播客中幾個月後發表的，期間他稱比特幣是“一個相當大的發明”，“在最初的10-11 年裡被系統性地低估了」。

Thiel’s second indicator points to exponential growth patterns. “Things that are exponential are extremely powerful but extremely unsustainable,” he explained. This perspective gains significance as Bitcoin’s market capitalization approaches record levels, with the cryptocurrency showing a 47.73% gain in Q4 2024.

蒂爾的第二個指標指向指數成長模式。 「指數級的事物極其強大，但極度不可持續，」他解釋道。隨著比特幣的市值接近創紀錄水平，這種觀點變得越來越重要，該加密貨幣在 2024 年第四季上漲了 47.73%。

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Thiel’s third indicator — psychosocial mania — resonates strongly with cryptocurrency markets. “There is a psychosocial component. It’s a sort of mania — the tulip bubble,” Thiel said, referencing the 17th-century Dutch tulip bubble that many critics have likened to today’s crypto markets.

泰爾的第三個指標——社會心理狂熱——與加密貨幣市場產生了強烈共鳴。 「其中存在心理社會因素。這是一種狂熱——鬱金香泡沫。

Despite these cautionary frameworks, Thiel’s Founders Fund reportedly invested $200 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum in late 2023. However, by July, Thiel expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s further growth potential, telling CNBC in an interview, “I’m not sure it’s going to go up that dramatically from here.”

儘管有這些警示框架，據報道，蒂爾的創始人基金在2023 年末向比特幣和以太坊投資了2 億美元。接受CNBC 採訪時表示，“我不確定它會繼續發展”。

The billionaire’s insights come as PayPal, the company he co-founded, continues to expand its cryptocurrency services, bridging traditional finance with digital assets. This integration reflects Thiel’s observation of Bitcoin’s evolution from a “cypherpunk, crypto-anarchist” tool to a mainstream financial asset.

這位億萬富翁的見解是在他共同創立的 PayPal 不斷擴展其加密貨幣服務、將傳統金融與數位資產聯繫起來之際發表的。這種整合反映了蒂爾對比特幣從「密碼朋克、加密無政府主義」工具演變為主流金融資產的觀察。

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

該內容部分是在人工智慧工具的幫助下製作的，並由 Benzinga 編輯審核和發布。