Peter Brandt 警告比特币 (BTC) 交易者可能会在下次 BTC 修正时见证严重损失

著名市场资深人士 Peter Brandt 认为，下一次 BTC 调整时，一些比特币交易员可能会遭受损失。

Market veteran Peter Brandt believes that several Bitcoin traders could face losses the next time BTC corrects.

市场资深人士 Peter Brandt 认为，下次 BTC 回调时，一些比特币交易者可能会面临损失。

Brandt highlighted this as he warned traders about the dangers of over-leverage and unrealistic expectations, calling attention to the need to prepare for the possibility of severe market corrections.

布兰特强调了这一点，他警告交易员过度杠杆化和不切实际的预期的危险，提醒人们需要为可能出现的严重市场调整做好准备。

Having boasted over five decades of trading experience, Brandt pointed out the risks that many investors face if they fail to account for potential downturns, especially in the highly speculative crypto market.

布兰特拥有超过 50 年的交易经验，他指出，许多投资者如果未能考虑到潜在的低迷，将面临风险，尤其是在高度投机的加密货币市场。

A Bitcoin 50% Correction is Possible

比特币可能出现 50% 的回调

The market veteran noted Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, spotlighting its incredible growth from $0.07 on Jan. 5, 2010, to about $98,000. This marked an astounding 1.4 million-fold increase or a 140,000,000% return.

这位市场资深人士注意到比特币的飞速上涨，并强调其从 2010 年 1 月 5 日的 0.07 美元令人难以置信的增长至约 98,000 美元。这标志着令人震惊的 140 万倍增长或 140,000,000% 的回报。

On Jan 5, 2010 Bitcoin was at $.07

2010 年 1 月 5 日，比特币价格为 0.07 美元

In 15 years, $BTC has advanced 1.4 MILLION-fold

15 年来，$BTC 上涨了 140 万倍

Yet, many ppl are expecting a repeat

然而，许多人期待重演

And many Zs and Ms expect trash_coins to be their redemption & ticket to riches

许多 Z 和女士希望垃圾币能够成为他们的救赎和致富的门票

Go ahead, call me a hater (I own Bitcoin & SOL)

来吧，称我为仇恨者（我拥有比特币和 SOL）

But I'm buying Kleenex stock pic.twitter.com/033Jnq4IHz

但我正在购买面巾纸股票 pic.twitter.com/033Jnq4IHz

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 6, 2025

— 彼得·勃兰特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2025 年 1 月 6 日

Despite the impressive run, Brandt warned against assuming that such gains will continue indefinitely. Instead, he stressed that many traders, especially younger investors, are ill-prepared for the possibility of substantial corrections, which could wipe out unprepared participants.

尽管表现令人印象深刻，但布兰特警告不要假设这种增长将无限期地持续下去。相反，他强调，许多交易者，尤其是年轻投资者，对大幅调整的可能性准备不足，这可能会消灭没有准备的参与者。

Brandt suggested that there is a possibility that Bitcoin could experience a 50% correction at some point, while altcoins and meme tokens might face even harsher downturns, potentially falling 90% and 100%, respectively. For context, a 50% drop would take BTC to around $49,800.

Brandt 表示，比特币有可能在某个时候经历 50% 的回调，而山寨币和 meme 代币可能面临更严重的低迷，可能分别下跌 90% 和 100%。就背景而言，下跌 50% 将使 BTC 跌至 49,800 美元左右。

I say this having witnessed markets for 50 years. Some will do great from here forward. But too many fools will get too leveraged, miss the top and get blown out in the next 50% correction in BTC, 90% correction in altcoins, 100% correction in memes

我是在见证市场 50 年之后才这么说的。从现在开始，有些人会做得很好。但太多的傻瓜会杠杆过高，错失顶部，并在接下来的 BTC 50% 调整、山寨币 90% 调整、模因 100% 调整中被炸毁。

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 6, 2025

— 彼得·勃兰特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2025 年 1 月 6 日

Importantly, he did not predict these collapses but stressed that most traders fail to consider such possibilities in their risk management strategies. Notably, this oversight leaves them vulnerable to being “rekt” if such scenarios eventually unfold.

重要的是，他并没有预测这些崩盘，但强调大多数交易者在风险管理策略中没有考虑到这种可能性。值得注意的是，如果这种情况最终发生，这种疏忽会让他们很容易受到“指责”。

Bitcoin’s Diminishing Returns

比特币的收益递减

Brandt’s recent commentary builds on his earlier observations from December 2024. He has been vocal about the diminishing returns in Bitcoin’s bull cycles over the years, describing the phenomenon as a “degeneration in magnitude.”

Brandt 最近的评论建立在他 2024 年 12 月的早期观察基础上。多年来，他一直直言不讳地谈论比特币牛市周期中的回报递减，并将这种现象描述为“规模的退化”。

Although he acknowledged Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, he argued that its bloom as a revolutionary financial asset may be fading. He has consistently warned that Millennials and Gen Z investors harbor overly optimistic expectations about Bitcoin’s potential to create financial freedom.

尽管他承认比特币作为对冲法定货币贬值的价值，但他认为，比特币作为一种革命性金融资产的繁荣可能正在消退。他一直警告千禧一代和 Z 世代投资者对比特币创造财务自由的潜力抱有过于乐观的期望。

This X post will not wear well

这个X柱不太好穿

Bitcoin $BTC bull cycles have exponentially degenerated in magnitude

比特币$BTC牛市周期的规模呈指数级退化

$BTC is likely to remain a great hedge vs. fiat busts

相对于法定货币的崩溃，比特币可能仍然是一个很好的对冲工具

But, the bloom is off the rose

但是，玫瑰已经绽放

Gen M & Zers who view $BTC as the road to financial glory are likely to be very dissappointed pic.twitter.com/kSq1hoW8N4

将 BTC 视为通向金融荣耀之路的 M 一代和 Z 一代可能会非常失望 pic.twitter.com/kSq1hoW8N4

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 30, 2024

— 彼得·勃兰特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2024 年 11 月 30 日

The market analyst argued that many individual stocks are likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next five to ten years, though he acknowledged that there is a challenge in identifying the right stocks.

这位市场分析师认为，在未来五到十年内，许多个股的表现可能会超过比特币，但他也承认，识别合适的股票存在挑战。

However, Brandt compared Bitcoin’s future prospects with other investments, maintaining that Bitcoin is still a more stable option compared to altcoins or meme tokens. Nonetheless, he reiterated that expecting exponential growth akin to Bitcoin’s early days is unrealistic given its current $1 trillion market capitalization.

然而，布兰特将比特币的未来前景与其他投资进行了比较，认为与山寨币或模因代币相比，比特币仍然是一个更稳定的选择。尽管如此，他重申，鉴于比特币目前 1 万亿美元的市值，期望比特币像早期那样呈指数级增长是不现实的。

Brandt Remains Bullish on Bitcoin

布兰特仍然看好比特币

Despite these concerns, Brandt is bullish on Bitcoin in the mid-term. In December 2024, he noted that Bitcoin’s price relative to gold had reached an all-time high around 40 ounces.

尽管存在这些担忧，布兰特在中期看好比特币。 2024 年 12 月，他指出比特币相对于黄金的价格已达到 40 盎司左右的历史新高。

Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin/Gold ratio could eventually hit 89:1. If this target is achieved and gold prices remain steady, Bitcoin’s value could rise to $234,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades for $99,712, with the BTC/Gold ratio now at 37.8.

Brandt 预测，比特币/黄金的比率最终可能达到 89:1。如果这一目标实现并且金价保持稳定，比特币的价值可能会升至 234,000 美元。目前，比特币交易价格为 99,712 美元，比特币/黄金比率为 37.8。