Peter Brandt 警告比特幣 (BTC) 交易者可能會在下次 BTC 修正時見證嚴重損失

著名市場資深人士 Peter Brandt 認為，下一次 BTC 調整時，一些比特幣交易員可能會遭受損失。

Market veteran Peter Brandt believes that several Bitcoin traders could face losses the next time BTC corrects.

市場資深人士 Peter Brandt 認為，下次 BTC 回檔時，一些比特幣交易者可能會面臨損失。

Brandt highlighted this as he warned traders about the dangers of over-leverage and unrealistic expectations, calling attention to the need to prepare for the possibility of severe market corrections.

布蘭特強調了這一點，他警告交易員過度槓桿化和不切實際的預期的危險，提醒人們需要為可能出現的嚴重市場調整做好準備。

Having boasted over five decades of trading experience, Brandt pointed out the risks that many investors face if they fail to account for potential downturns, especially in the highly speculative crypto market.

布蘭特擁有超過 50 年的交易經驗，他指​​出，許多投資者如果未能考慮到潛在的低迷，將面臨風險，尤其是在高度投機的加密貨幣市場。

A Bitcoin 50% Correction is Possible

比特幣可能會出現 50% 的回調

The market veteran noted Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, spotlighting its incredible growth from $0.07 on Jan. 5, 2010, to about $98,000. This marked an astounding 1.4 million-fold increase or a 140,000,000% return.

這位市場資深人士注意到比特幣的快速上漲，並強調其從 2010 年 1 月 5 日的 0.07 美元令人難以置信的增長至約 98,000 美元。這標誌著令人震驚的 140 萬倍增長或 140,000,000% 的回報。

On Jan 5, 2010 Bitcoin was at $.07

2010 年 1 月 5 日，比特幣價格為 0.07 美元

In 15 years, $BTC has advanced 1.4 MILLION-fold

15 年來，$BTC 上漲了 140 萬倍

Yet, many ppl are expecting a repeat

然而，許多人期待重演

And many Zs and Ms expect trash_coins to be their redemption & ticket to riches

許多 Z 和女士希望垃圾幣能夠成為他們的救贖和致富的門票

Go ahead, call me a hater (I own Bitcoin & SOL)

來吧，稱我為仇恨者（我擁有比特幣和 SOL）

But I'm buying Kleenex stock pic.twitter.com/033Jnq4IHz

但我正在購買面巾紙股票 pic.twitter.com/033Jnq4IHz

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 6, 2025

— 彼得·布蘭特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2025 年 1 月 6 日

Despite the impressive run, Brandt warned against assuming that such gains will continue indefinitely. Instead, he stressed that many traders, especially younger investors, are ill-prepared for the possibility of substantial corrections, which could wipe out unprepared participants.

儘管表現令人印象深刻，但布蘭特警告不要假設這種增長將無限期地持續下去。相反，他強調，許多交易者，尤其是年輕投資者，對大幅調整的可能性準備不足，這可能會消除沒有準備的參與者。

Brandt suggested that there is a possibility that Bitcoin could experience a 50% correction at some point, while altcoins and meme tokens might face even harsher downturns, potentially falling 90% and 100%, respectively. For context, a 50% drop would take BTC to around $49,800.

Brandt 表示，比特幣有可能在某個時候經歷 50% 的回調，而山寨幣和 meme 代幣可能面臨更嚴重的低迷，可能分別下跌 90% 和 100%。就背景而言，下跌 50% 將使 BTC 跌至 49,800 美元左右。

I say this having witnessed markets for 50 years. Some will do great from here forward. But too many fools will get too leveraged, miss the top and get blown out in the next 50% correction in BTC, 90% correction in altcoins, 100% correction in memes

我是在見證市場 50 年後才這麼說的。從現在開始，有些人會做得很好。但太多的傻瓜會槓桿過高，錯失頂部，並在接下來的 BTC 50% 調整、山寨幣 90% 調整、模因 100% 調整中被炸毀。

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 6, 2025

— 彼得·布蘭特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2025 年 1 月 6 日

Importantly, he did not predict these collapses but stressed that most traders fail to consider such possibilities in their risk management strategies. Notably, this oversight leaves them vulnerable to being “rekt” if such scenarios eventually unfold.

重要的是，他並沒有預測這些崩盤，但強調大多數交易者在風險管理策略中沒有考慮到這種可能性。值得注意的是，如果這種情況最終發生，這種疏忽會讓他們很容易受到「指責」。

Bitcoin’s Diminishing Returns

比特幣的收益遞減

Brandt’s recent commentary builds on his earlier observations from December 2024. He has been vocal about the diminishing returns in Bitcoin’s bull cycles over the years, describing the phenomenon as a “degeneration in magnitude.”

Brandt 最近的評論建立在他 2024 年 12 月的早期觀察基礎上。

Although he acknowledged Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, he argued that its bloom as a revolutionary financial asset may be fading. He has consistently warned that Millennials and Gen Z investors harbor overly optimistic expectations about Bitcoin’s potential to create financial freedom.

儘管他承認比特幣作為對沖法定貨幣貶值的價值，但他認為，比特幣作為革命性金融資產的繁榮可能正在消退。他一直警告千禧世代和 Z 世代投資者對比特幣創造財務自由的潛力抱持著過於樂觀的期望。

This X post will not wear well

這個X柱不太好穿

Bitcoin $BTC bull cycles have exponentially degenerated in magnitude

比特幣$BTC牛市週期的規模呈指數級退化

$BTC is likely to remain a great hedge vs. fiat busts

相對於法定貨幣的崩潰，比特幣可能仍然是一個很好的對沖工具

But, the bloom is off the rose

但是，玫瑰已經綻放

Gen M & Zers who view $BTC as the road to financial glory are likely to be very dissappointed pic.twitter.com/kSq1hoW8N4

將 BTC 視為通往金融榮耀之路的 M 世代和 Z 世代可能會非常失望 pic.twitter.com/kSq1hoW8N4

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 30, 2024

— 彼得·布蘭特 (@PeterLBrandt) 2024 年 11 月 30 日

The market analyst argued that many individual stocks are likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next five to ten years, though he acknowledged that there is a challenge in identifying the right stocks.

這位市場分析師認為，在未來五到十年內，許多個股的表現可能會超過比特幣，但他也承認，識別合適的股票有挑戰。

However, Brandt compared Bitcoin’s future prospects with other investments, maintaining that Bitcoin is still a more stable option compared to altcoins or meme tokens. Nonetheless, he reiterated that expecting exponential growth akin to Bitcoin’s early days is unrealistic given its current $1 trillion market capitalization.

然而，布蘭特將比特幣的未來前景與其他投資進行了比較，認為與山寨幣或迷因代幣相比，比特幣仍然是一個更穩定的選擇。儘管如此，他重申，鑑於比特幣目前 1 兆美元的市值，期望比特幣像早期那樣呈指數級增長是不切實際的。

Brandt Remains Bullish on Bitcoin

布蘭特仍然看好比特幣

Despite these concerns, Brandt is bullish on Bitcoin in the mid-term. In December 2024, he noted that Bitcoin’s price relative to gold had reached an all-time high around 40 ounces.

儘管有這些擔憂，布蘭特在中期看好比特幣。 2024 年 12 月，他指出比特幣相對於黃金的價格已達到 40 盎司左右的歷史新高。

Brandt predicted that the Bitcoin/Gold ratio could eventually hit 89:1. If this target is achieved and gold prices remain steady, Bitcoin’s value could rise to $234,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades for $99,712, with the BTC/Gold ratio now at 37.8.

Brandt 預測，比特幣/黃金的比率最終可能達到 89:1。如果這一目標實現並且金價保持穩定，比特幣的價值可能會升至 234,000 美元。目前，比特幣交易價格為 99,712 美元，比特幣/黃金比率為 37.8。