由宏观经济驱动的乐观视力

Cardano区块链背后的创建者查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）做出了大胆的预测：到2025年底，比特币（BTC）可以达到25万美元

Charles Hoskinson, the creator of the Cardano blockchain, has made a bold prediction: Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, or even 2026.

Cardano区块链的创建者查尔斯·霍斯金森（Charles Hoskinson）做出了大胆的预测：到2025年底，甚至2026年，比特币（BTC）可以达到25万美元。

His prediction is based on several pillars. Firstly, Hoskinson anticipates monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Interest rate cuts would make capital more accessible, leading to a massive influx into risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

他的预测是基于几支支柱。首先，霍斯金森预计美联储将享受货币宽松。降低利率将使资本更容易获得，从而大量涌入加入加密货币等风险资产。

“The markets will stabilize, adapt to the new norm, and cheap money will flow into crypto,” he recently stated.

他最近说：“市场将稳定，适应新的规范，而便宜的钱将流入加密货币。”

Secondly, he is betting on increasing institutional adoption driven by tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, or Amazon. These “Magnificent Seven” could integrate stablecoins or blockchain solutions, strengthening the sector’s legitimacy and appeal.

其次，他押注在苹果，微软或亚马逊等科技巨头驱动的机构采用上增加机构采用。这些“壮丽的七人”可以整合稳定的解决方案或区块链解决方案，从而增强该行业的合法性和吸引力。

Thirdly, Hoskinson sees global adoption on the rise, with a crypto user base growing by 13% in 2024 to reach 659 million individuals.

第三，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）认为全球采用率正在上升，2024年的加密用户群增长了13％，达到了6.59亿个人。

Lastly, he is counting on regulatory clarity in the United States, particularly through legislation on stablecoins and digital asset structures. These reforms could address uncertainties holding back institutional investors, paving the way for a speculative surge by August or September 2025.

最后，他指望美国的监管清晰度，尤其是通过有关稳定币和数字资产结构的立法。这些改革可能会解决阻碍机构投资者的不确定性，为投机性激增铺平了道路，到2025年8月或9月。

However, current data tempers enthusiasm. Network activity dropped by 22% in the first quarter of 2025, with a decline in daily active users from 101,000 to 78,000.

但是，当前的数据脾气热情。网络活动在2025年第一季度下降了22％，每日活跃用户从101,000下降到78,000。

This weakness reflects a subdued demand, contrasting with the frenzy needed to justify a surge to $250,000. For Hodkinson’s prediction to come true, the network must show clear signs of recovery, with an increase in transactions and new holders.

这种弱点反映了需求柔和的需求，这与使浪潮降至250,000美元所需的狂热形成了鲜明对比。为了使霍德金森的预测实现，网络必须显示出清晰的恢复迹象，交易和新持有人的增加。

Technically, BTC remains stuck below the $100,000 mark, far from its January peak. After a 26% correction from that high, the price is testing resistance around $85,000. A clear breakout, supported by strong buying volume, would be crucial to reignite the bullish momentum. Conversely, a rejection could bring BTC back to the $74,000 support level, extending the consolidation.

从技术上讲，BTC仍然在100,000美元的范围内停留，远离其1月的山峰。在从该高点进行26％的纠正之后，价格是在85,000美元左右测试阻力。在强劲的购买量的支持下，明确的突破对于重新点燃看涨势头至关重要。相反，拒绝可能会将BTC恢复到74,000美元的支持水平，从而扩大合并。

Recently, there has been a focus on macroeconomic trends. U.S. President Biden announced tariffs on solar panels from China, an action that could escalate trade tensions and impact markets.

最近，人们一直关注宏观经济趋势。美国总统拜登（Biden）宣布对中国太阳能电池板的关税，这一行动可能会升级贸易紧张局势和影响市场。

However, Hoskinson downplays the impact of tariffs. He believes that these measures, far from triggering a global trade war, will be limited to a U.S.-China showdown, with subsequent negotiations to appease the markets.

但是，霍斯金森淡化了关税的影响。他认为，这些措施远​​非引发全球贸易战争，将仅限于美中国摊牌，随后进行谈判以安抚市场。

Still, recent volatility, largely driven by these announcements, shows that investors remain skittish. An unexpected escalation could redirect capital from risky assets like BTC.

尽管如此，最近在这些公告的推动下，最近的波动表明投资者仍然很糟糕。出乎意料的升级可能会从BTC等风险资产中将资本重新定向。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s dependence on the overall crypto market sentiment poses a risk. If altcoins like Ethereum or Cardano struggle to keep up, the momentum could wane, limiting the impact of the catalysts mentioned by Hoskinson.

此外，比特币对整个加密市场情绪的依赖会带来风险。如果像以太坊或卡尔达诺这样的山寨币难以跟上，势头可能会消失，限制了霍斯金森提到的催化剂的影响。

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin retains major strengths. Its position as a “digital store of value” remains unmatched, with increasing adoption in institutional portfolios and alternative payment systems. The scarcity embedded in its protocol, recently reinforced by the halving to reduce new BTC issuance, supports long-term bullish pressure.

尽管面临这些挑战，但比特币仍保留了主要优势。它作为“价值数字存储”的地位仍然无与伦比，在机构投资组合和替代支付系统中的采用量增加。在其协议中嵌入的稀缺性，最近由于减少新的BTC发行而加强了稀缺性，支持长期看涨压力。

Furthermore, Hoskinson highlights Bitcoin’s role in a world facing geopolitical instability. As tensions between major powers escalate, decentralized systems like BTC offer an alternative to traditional financial networks, often vulnerable to sanctions or crises.

此外，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）强调了比特币在面对地缘政治不稳定的世界中的作用。随着主要大国之间的紧张局势升级，像BTC这样的分散系统为传统金融网络提供了替代，通常容易受到制裁或危机。

In conclusion, Hoskinson’s prediction of $250,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2025 hinges on several factors converging: accommodating monetary policy, mass adoption, and regulatory clarity. If these conditions materialize, a speculative wave by mid-2025 could propel BTC to such heights.

总之，霍斯金森（Hoskinson）在2025年底之前预测了$ 250,000比特币，这些比特币对几个因素的融合：适应货币政策，大规模采用和监管清晰度。如果这些条件实现，则2025年中期的投机波可以将BTC推向这样的高度。

However, in the short term, network weakness and macroeconomic uncertainties call for caution. Only time will tell if the optimistic vision presented by Hoskinson will unfold in the crypto market.

但是，在短期内，网络弱点和宏观经济不确定性需要谨慎。只有时间才能证明霍斯金森提出的乐观愿景是否会在加密市场中展开。