Nadirs和Memecoins的竞标死亡

我已经很久没写了。回顾2024年我的交易想法，我对模因硬币选择的一些看法仍然适用

Of nadirs and bidding death in memecoins

Nadirs和Memecoins的竞标死亡

Having not written anything for a while, I thought I’d jot down some thoughts as we head into the latter half of the year. Some of my views on meme coin selection from 2024 are still applicable, but now we seem to have entered a new "field."

有一段时间没有写任何东西，我想在我们进入下半年的时候，我会记下一些想法。我对2024年的模因硬币选择的一些看法仍然适用，但是现在我们似乎已经进入了一个新的“字段”。

In 2024, we saw the market evolve from pure meme coins > celebrity coins > art tokens > AI/technology/functional tokens. Back then, the replacement of the mainstream hot spots in the market was relatively clear — when and what kind of themes became the market outlets often had clear boundaries and timelines.

在2024年，我们看到市场从纯模因硬币>“名人硬币”> Art Sigkens> AI/技术/功能令牌演变。那时，市场中主流热点的替代相对清楚 - 何时以及哪些主题变成市场的渠道通常具有明确的界限和时间表。

However, fast forward to 2025, and we see a chaotic landscape of tokens: past hot projects are struggling to regain market attention — they were once popular, but now most of them have seen a 70–90% retracement. Unfortunately, the ones who are still holding on are often just some "last receivers" or old players who keep going in and out, hoping to spot the next wave of shipments. Of course, these projects aren’t necessarily scams, but rather a game of "pass the parcel" — the market (or players) will only chase the latest hot spots unless there is a good reason to refocus on past projects.

但是，快进到2025年，我们看到了一个混乱的令牌景观：过去的热门项目正在努力恢复市场的关注 - 它们曾经很受欢迎，但现在大多数人已经看到了70-90％的回收率。不幸的是，仍然坚持不懈的人通常只是一些“最后的接球手”或继续进出的老玩家，希望发现下一波货物。当然，这些项目不一定是骗局，而是“通过包裹”的游戏 - 市场（或玩家）只会追逐最新的热点，除非有充分的理由重新关注过去的项目。

At the same time, new meme tracks and technology concepts are vying fiercely, and the market landscape is more complicated. 2024 saw the laying of the groundwork for the "tokenization of attention" in various industries, and Trump's "official" token has given the green light to the entire market (whether good or bad projects). In this chaos, we are beginning to see multiple tokens with different themes and different life cycles coexist at the same time.

同时，新的模因轨道和技术概念正在激烈争夺，市场格局更加复杂。 2024年，各个行业的“关注令牌”的基础奠定了基础，而特朗普的“官方”令牌已将绿灯赋予了整个市场（无论是好是坏项目）。在这种混乱中，我们开始看到具有不同主题和不同生命周期的多个令牌同时共存。

But it must be realized that market liquidity, like our attention, is cyclical. Today's headline hot spots may be ignored tomorrow, and no one can predict tomorrow's hot spots (laughs).

但是必须意识到，像我们的注意一样，市场流动性是周期性的。今天的标题热点可能明天被忽略，没有人可以预测明天的热点（笑）。

Therefore, tokens of various themes will continue to coexist, and each track will also go through its own liquidity cycle. What does this mean?

因此，各种主题的令牌将继续共存，每个轨道也将经历其自身的流动性周期。这是什么意思？

Remember this picture? Now, imagine this is a price chart of a single token; at the same time, you can also flip it over, and it becomes a chart of another token.

还记得这张照片吗？现在，想象一下这是一个单一令牌的价格图表；同时，您也可以将其翻转过来，并成为另一个令牌的图表。

Go a step further and overlay these graphs in your mind, and realize that there are 112,931,920,482 tokens on the blockchain, each with their own highs and lows; at the same time, the overall trend of each sector is at a different stage — some have just hit bottom (nadir), and some have already reached the top (zenith).

更进一步，在您的脑海中覆盖这些图，并意识到区块链上有112,931,920,482令牌，每个令牌都有自己的高高和低点；同时，每个部门的总体趋势处于不同的阶段 - 有些人刚刚达到底部（Nadir），有些已经达到了顶部（Zenith）。

My core point is that there are always countless trading opportunities in the market; the key is to find those that have not been squeezed. Of course, the vast majority of tokens may end up being nothing, but you can at least put them on your watch list, leave yourself a note, or set a price alert so that you can check back at the right time.

我的核心观点是，市场上总是有无数的交易机会。关键是找到那些尚未被挤压的人。当然，绝大多数代币可能最终什么都没有，但是您至少可以将它们放在手表列表中，给自己留言或设置价格警报，以便您可以在正确的时间进行检查。

We have covered almost all the major tokenized attention tracks in 2024. I mentioned some key categories earlier, let’s expand on them. Some projects didn’t survive a week, and some once-popular projects have already hit bottom.

我们已经涵盖了2024年几乎所有主要的令牌注意事项。我之前提到了一些关键类别，让我们对其进行扩展。有些项目没有生存一周，一些曾经受欢迎的项目已经达到最低点。

* Pure meme coins — These tokens are purely for fun, usually derived from viral trends on X (Twitter)/TikTok, or retro nostalgic memes. The flywheel effect of “Copypasta” gameplay and virality is most prominent here.

*纯模因硬币 - 这些代币纯粹是为了娱乐，通常源自x（Twitter）/tiktok上的病毒趋势，或恢复怀旧的模因。在这里，“复发”游戏玩法和病毒性的飞轮效应在这里是最突出的。

* Celebrity Coins - These tokens are based on an influential person, and the core logic of many projects is to use the fan effect to harvest the market. Although this field is full of "cash machine" projects, it still provides an opportunity window — because they can "guide ordinary users into the currency circle."

*名人硬币 - 这些代币基于一个有影响力的人，许多项目的核心逻辑是利用风扇效应来收获市场。尽管该领域到处都是“现金机”项目，但它仍然提供了一个机会窗口，因为他们可以“引导普通用户进入货币圈”。

* Art Tokens - Tokens supported by art, which can be seen as an evolved version of the NFT community to some extent.

*艺术令牌 - 由艺术支持的代币，在某种程度上可以将其视为NFT社区的进化版本。

* AI / Tech / Utility Tokens - These tokens at least conceptually carry some kind of technology or utility. I once said I would never trade such tokens, but the market environment is constantly changing and we need to adapt. The market often values the "technical prospect" more than the actual technology itself — in other words, the selling point is the "expectation of the news" rather than the technology itself (sell the news / the idea of the news).

* AI / Tech /实用程序令牌 - 这些令牌至少在概念上具有某种技术或实用程序。我曾经说过我永远不会交易这样的代币，但是市场环境在不断变化，我们需要适应。市场通常比实际技术本身更重视“技术前景” - 换句话说，卖点是“对新闻的期望”而不是技术本身（出售新闻 /新闻的想法）。

* Web2 Community Tokens (Communities / Web2) - This category is similar to celebrity coins, but they rely on existing Web2 communities and use the existing fan base to project into the Web3 field.

* Web2社区令牌（社区 / Web2） - 此类别类似于名人硬币，但它们依靠现有的Web2社区，并使用现有的粉丝群将其投影到Web3字段中。

* News/Tweets tokens - These tokens are often quick speculations on a short-term hot topic and can set a "market trend" (meta) in a short period of time. These tokens usually rise very

*新闻/推文令牌 - 这些令牌通常是关于短期热门话题的快速猜测，可以在短时间内设定“市场趋势”（META）。这些代币通常会非常上升