Nadirs和Memecoins的競標死亡

我已經很久沒寫了。回顧2024年我的交易想法，我對模因硬幣選擇的一些看法仍然適用

Of nadirs and bidding death in memecoins

Nadirs和Memecoins的競標死亡

Having not written anything for a while, I thought I’d jot down some thoughts as we head into the latter half of the year. Some of my views on meme coin selection from 2024 are still applicable, but now we seem to have entered a new "field."

有一段時間沒有寫任何東西，我想在我們進入下半年的時候，我會記下一些想法。我對2024年的模因硬幣選擇的一些看法仍然適用，但是現在我們似乎已經進入了一個新的“字段”。

In 2024, we saw the market evolve from pure meme coins > celebrity coins > art tokens > AI/technology/functional tokens. Back then, the replacement of the mainstream hot spots in the market was relatively clear — when and what kind of themes became the market outlets often had clear boundaries and timelines.

在2024年，我們看到市場從純模因硬幣>“名人硬幣”> Art Sigkens> AI/技術/功能令牌演變。那時，市場中主流熱點的替代相對清楚 - 何時以及哪些主題變成市場的渠道通常具有明確的界限和時間表。

However, fast forward to 2025, and we see a chaotic landscape of tokens: past hot projects are struggling to regain market attention — they were once popular, but now most of them have seen a 70–90% retracement. Unfortunately, the ones who are still holding on are often just some "last receivers" or old players who keep going in and out, hoping to spot the next wave of shipments. Of course, these projects aren’t necessarily scams, but rather a game of "pass the parcel" — the market (or players) will only chase the latest hot spots unless there is a good reason to refocus on past projects.

但是，快進到2025年，我們看到了一個混亂的令牌景觀：過去的熱門項目正在努力恢復市場的關注 - 它們曾經很受歡迎，但現在大多數人已經看到了70-90％的回收率。不幸的是，仍然堅持不懈的人通常只是一些“最後的接球手”或繼續進出的老玩家，希望發現下一波貨物。當然，這些項目不一定是騙局，而是“通過包裹”的遊戲 - 市場（或玩家）只會追逐最新的熱點，除非有充分的理由重新關注過去的項目。

At the same time, new meme tracks and technology concepts are vying fiercely, and the market landscape is more complicated. 2024 saw the laying of the groundwork for the "tokenization of attention" in various industries, and Trump's "official" token has given the green light to the entire market (whether good or bad projects). In this chaos, we are beginning to see multiple tokens with different themes and different life cycles coexist at the same time.

同時，新的模因軌道和技術概念正在激烈爭奪，市場格局更加複雜。 2024年，各個行業的“關注令牌”的基礎奠定了基礎，而特朗普的“官方”令牌已將綠燈賦予了整個市場（無論是好是壞項目）。在這種混亂中，我們開始看到具有不同主題和不同生命週期的多個令牌同時共存。

But it must be realized that market liquidity, like our attention, is cyclical. Today's headline hot spots may be ignored tomorrow, and no one can predict tomorrow's hot spots (laughs).

但是必須意識到，像我們的注意一樣，市場流動性是周期性的。今天的標題熱點可能明天被忽略，沒有人可以預測明天的熱點（笑）。

Therefore, tokens of various themes will continue to coexist, and each track will also go through its own liquidity cycle. What does this mean?

因此，各種主題的令牌將繼續共存，每個軌道也將經歷其自身的流動性週期。這是什麼意思？

Remember this picture? Now, imagine this is a price chart of a single token; at the same time, you can also flip it over, and it becomes a chart of another token.

還記得這張照片嗎？現在，想像一下這是一個單一令牌的價格圖表；同時，您也可以將其翻轉過來，並成為另一個令牌的圖表。

Go a step further and overlay these graphs in your mind, and realize that there are 112,931,920,482 tokens on the blockchain, each with their own highs and lows; at the same time, the overall trend of each sector is at a different stage — some have just hit bottom (nadir), and some have already reached the top (zenith).

更進一步，在您的腦海中覆蓋這些圖，並意識到區塊鏈上有112,931,920,482令牌，每個令牌都有自己的高高和低點；同時，每個部門的總體趨勢處於不同的階段 - 有些人剛剛達到底部（Nadir），有些已經達到了頂部（Zenith）。

My core point is that there are always countless trading opportunities in the market; the key is to find those that have not been squeezed. Of course, the vast majority of tokens may end up being nothing, but you can at least put them on your watch list, leave yourself a note, or set a price alert so that you can check back at the right time.

我的核心觀點是，市場上總是有無數的交易機會。關鍵是找到那些尚未被擠壓的人。當然，絕大多數代幣可能最終什麼都沒有，但是您至少可以將它們放在手錶列表中，給自己留言或設置價格警報，以便您可以在正確的時間進行檢查。

We have covered almost all the major tokenized attention tracks in 2024. I mentioned some key categories earlier, let’s expand on them. Some projects didn’t survive a week, and some once-popular projects have already hit bottom.

我們已經涵蓋了2024年幾乎所有主要的令牌注意事項。我之前提到了一些關鍵類別，讓我們對其進行擴展。有些項目沒有生存一周，一些曾經受歡迎的項目已經達到最低點。

* Pure meme coins — These tokens are purely for fun, usually derived from viral trends on X (Twitter)/TikTok, or retro nostalgic memes. The flywheel effect of “Copypasta” gameplay and virality is most prominent here.

*純模因硬幣 - 這些代幣純粹是為了娛樂，通常源自x（Twitter）/tiktok上的病毒趨勢，或恢復懷舊的模因。在這裡，“復發”遊戲玩法和病毒性的飛輪效應在這裡是最突出的。

* Celebrity Coins - These tokens are based on an influential person, and the core logic of many projects is to use the fan effect to harvest the market. Although this field is full of "cash machine" projects, it still provides an opportunity window — because they can "guide ordinary users into the currency circle."

*名人硬幣 - 這些代幣基於一個有影響力的人，許多項目的核心邏輯是利用風扇效應來收穫市場。儘管該領域到處都是“現金機”項目，但它仍然提供了一個機會窗口，因為他們可以“引導普通用戶進入貨幣圈”。

* Art Tokens - Tokens supported by art, which can be seen as an evolved version of the NFT community to some extent.

*藝術令牌 - 由藝術支持的代幣，在某種程度上可以將其視為NFT社區的進化版本。

* AI / Tech / Utility Tokens - These tokens at least conceptually carry some kind of technology or utility. I once said I would never trade such tokens, but the market environment is constantly changing and we need to adapt. The market often values the "technical prospect" more than the actual technology itself — in other words, the selling point is the "expectation of the news" rather than the technology itself (sell the news / the idea of the news).

* AI / Tech /實用程序令牌 - 這些令牌至少在概念上具有某種技術或實用程序。我曾經說過我永遠不會交易這樣的代幣，但是市場環境在不斷變化，我們需要適應。市場通常比實際技術本身更重視“技術前景” - 換句話說，賣點是“對新聞的期望”而不是技術本身（出售新聞 /新聞的想法）。

* Web2 Community Tokens (Communities / Web2) - This category is similar to celebrity coins, but they rely on existing Web2 communities and use the existing fan base to project into the Web3 field.

* Web2社區令牌（社區 / Web2） - 此類別類似於名人硬幣，但它們依靠現有的Web2社區，並使用現有的粉絲群將其投影到Web3字段中。

* News/Tweets tokens - These tokens are often quick speculations on a short-term hot topic and can set a "market trend" (meta) in a short period of time. These tokens usually rise very

*新聞/推文令牌 - 這些令牌通常是關於短期熱門話題的快速猜測，可以在短時間內設定“市場趨勢”（META）。這些代幣通常會非常上升