Mt. Gox 开始向债权人支付比特币，市场影响不确定

比特币价格继昨天触及 70,600 美元附近的短暂峰值后，今天下跌 1.5%，跌破 68,000 美元大关。

The price of Bitcoin dropped by 1.5% on Sunday, falling below the $68,000 mark after briefly reaching a high of $70,600 the previous day. This decline comes as Mt. Gox, the once-dominant bitcoin exchange that collapsed in 2014, has begun processing payouts to its long-awaiting creditors, according to multiple reports.

比特币价格周日下跌 1.5%，在前一天短暂触及 70,600 美元高点后跌破 68,000 美元大关。据多份报道称，比特币价格下跌之际，曾经占据主导地位的比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 已于 2014 年倒闭，目前已开始向等待已久的债权人支付款项。

This release involves approximately 75,000 Bitcoins, currently valued at over $5.1 billion, sparking concerns about the potential impact on market liquidity and price stability.

此次发行涉及约 75,000 个比特币，目前价值超过 51 亿美元，引发了人们对市场流动性和价格稳定性潜在影响的担忧。

Head of research at Galaxy, a leading firm in the cryptocurrency sector, Alex Thorn provided real-time updates via Twitter on the movements of Bitcoin related to the Mt. Gox payouts. Initially, Thorn reported the transfer of approximately 25,000 BTC.

加密货币领域领先公司 Galaxy 的研究主管 Alex Thorn 通过 Twitter 提供了与 Mt. Gox 支付相关的比特币走势的实时更新。最初，Thorn 报告称转移了约 25,000 BTC。

“About 25K BTC from Mt. Gox has moved in the last hour, likely the beginning of distributions to creditors. […] I personally expect most BTC gets hodl’d, but I can’t say the same for the BCH,” Thorn commented, indicating a differentiated impact on Bitcoin versus Bitcoin Cash.

“过去一小时内，来自 Mt. Gox 的约 25,000 枚 BTC 已转移，这可能是向债权人分配的开始。 […] 我个人预计大多数 BTC 都会被持有，但我不能对 BCH 说同样的话，”Thorn 评论道，这表明对比特币与比特币现金的影响有所不同。

Shortly after, the movements escalated rapidly, with Thorn’s updates continuing: “16.5K BTC just moved, totaling 42.9K BTC so far tonight BTC) Another 32.1k BTC just moved. Total is now 75k BTC so far tonight ($5.1bn). All moved to the 1Jbez…APs6 address. Maybe a consolidation before moving to the creditor custodians (bitgo, kraken, bitstamp).”

不久之后，波动迅速升级，Thorn 继续更新：“16.5K BTC 刚刚移动，今晚到目前为止总计 42.9K BTC BTC）另外 32.1k BTC 刚刚移动。今晚到目前为止，比特币总量已达 75,000 枚（51 亿美元）。全部移至 1Jbez…APs6 地址。也许在转向债权人托管人（bitgo、kraken、bitstamp）之前进行整合。”

The potential market impact of these large bitcoin movements has been a topic of much speculation. General partner at Castle Island VC, Matt Walsh, discussed the strategic purchases of Mt. Gox claims.

这些比特币大幅波动的潜在市场影响一直是人们猜测的话题。 Castle Island VC 的普通合伙人 Matt Walsh 讨论了对 Mt. Gox 债权的战略收购。

“Lot of SPV capital buying claims with the intent on hodling the BTC (in-kind distribution mechanism). Agree with your take on the B-cash. Still, my back of the napkin math still has about 65K BTC set to be delivered to individual creditors,” Walsh stated.

“许多 SPV 资本购买声称旨在持有 BTC（实物分配机制）。同意你对 B-cash 的看法。尽管如此，根据我的计算，仍有大约 65,000 比特币将交付给个人债权人，”沃尔什表示。

Responding to Walsh, Thorn pointed out the speculative nature of these estimates. “Several assumptions in that number though,” he noted, implying the difficulty in predicting exact market outcomes from these distributions.

索恩在回应沃尔什时指出了这些估计的推测性质。他指出：“尽管这个数字有几个假设，”这意味着很难从这些分布中预测准确的市场结果。

The behavior of creditors receiving these payouts is also under scrutiny. X user Dickie Emerson argued against the assumption that most would hold onto their Bitcoin.

接受这些付款的债权人的行为也受到审查。 X 用户 Dickie Emerson 反对大多数人会持有比特币的假设。

“No clue why you think most BTC gets held. These were forced hodlers. They will get a major payday that they would have likely not received had it never been locked (they would have sold by now).”

“不知道为什么你认为大多数比特币都被持有。这些人是被迫持有者。他们将获得一个重要的发薪日，如果它从未被锁定，他们可能不会收到（他们现在已经卖掉了）。”

In defense of his earlier statement, Thorn elaborated on why some creditors might choose not to sell their bitcoins immediately.

为了捍卫他之前的声明，索恩详细解释了为什么一些债权人可能选择不立即出售他们的比特币。

“There are some reasons to believe they will hodl. Noteworthy long termers make up a lot of creditors. Getting a huge payday in dollar terms (cap gains) but also only a 15% recovery in BTC terms.”

“有一些理由相信他们会持有。值得注意的长期投资者构成了很多债权人。以美元计算获得巨额收益（上限收益），但以 BTC 计算也仅实现 15% 的复苏。”

Thorn also remarked that many creditors were offered to sell their claims and refused, signaling their intent to hodl these coins instead.

索恩还表示，许多债权人被提议出售其债权，但遭到拒绝，这表明他们打算转而持有这些代币。

“And average individual creditor only getting back about 3.23 BTC. Would you dump 3 BTC now? Or hodl for higher? Lots of speculation here on my part no doubt. Even a small percentage of it selling could move the market also,” Thorn added.

“平均个人债权人只能拿回约 3.23 BTC。您现在愿意抛售 3 BTC 吗？或者持有更高的价格？毫无疑问，我这里有很多猜测。即使是一小部分的销售也可能会影响市场，”索恩补充道。

Confirmation From On-Chain Analysis

链上分析的确认

Supporting the observations of large-scale movements, James “Checkmatey” Check, a highly regarded on-chain analyst, confirmed the unfolding events.

备受推崇的链上分析师 James “Checkmatey” Check 证实了正在发生的事件，这支持了对大规模运动的观察。

“Finally, Mt Gox distributions appear to be underway. Around 42.9k BTC on the move as we speak, worth around $2.94B. Congrats to the creditors, it must be a relief and a half to get these coins back. What a saga.”

“最后，Mt Gox 的分发似乎正在进行中。正如我们所说，大约 42.9k BTC 正在流动，价值约为 $2.94B。恭喜债主了，能把这些币拿回来，一定是松了一口气。多么传奇啊。”

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, also verified these transfers. “Outflows from Mt. Gox addresses continue: Now a total of 42,829 Bitcoin have moved out from Mt. Gox addresses in the last few hours. All coins have been transferred to a new address: 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6.”

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 也验证了这些转账。 “Mt.Gox 地址的流出仍在继续：现在，过去几个小时内共有 42,829 个比特币从 Mt.Gox 地址流出。所有硬币已转移到新地址：1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6。”

The recent developments mark a significant milestone in the long saga of Mt. Gox, which once handled 70% of all Bitcoin transactions before its collapse in 2014. The exchange’s downfall began when it halted withdrawals due to security breaches that led to the loss of approximately 800,000 bitcoins.

最近的事态发展标志着 Mt. Gox 漫长传奇中的一个重要里程碑，在 2014 年倒闭之前，Mt. Gox 曾处理过 70% 的比特币交易。该交易所的垮台始于因安全漏洞而停止提款，导致约 100 亿美元的损失。 80万比特币。

Following a protracted legal and administrative process, the recent movements suggest a closure is finally within sight for creditors, albeit introducing fresh variables into the volatile market.

经过旷日持久的法律和行政程序，最近的动向表明债权人终于可以看到关闭，尽管给动荡的市场带来了新的变数。

At press time, BTC trades at $67,865.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 67,865 美元。