MicroStrategy 的比特币赌博：减半能否推动股价创新高？

MicroStrategy (MSTR) 股价本周暴跌超过 25%，反映了比特币 (BTC) 最近的下跌。尽管比特币购买量强劲，但 MSTR 的表现一直优于 BTC，在最近的调整之前上涨了 150%。分析师仍然乐观，Andrew Harte 将其价格目标提高至 1,800 美元，理由是即将到来的比特币减半事件可能带来上涨，预计这将减少 BTC 的供应并可能提振股价。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bet: Will Halving Propel Stock to New Heights?

MicroStrategy 的比特币押注：减半会将股价推至新高吗？

MicroStrategy (MSTR), the corporate behemoth holding the world's largest Bitcoin stash, has witnessed a precipitous decline in its share price, plummeting over 25% this week. This downturn mirrors the recent slump in Bitcoin (BTC) prices. Despite these fluctuations, MicroStrategy's stock has been on a wild ride, surging three times faster than Bitcoin in the months leading up to this correction.

拥有全球最大比特币储备的企业巨头 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的股价急剧下跌，本周暴跌超过 25%。这种低迷反映了最近比特币（BTC）价格的暴跌。尽管存在这些波动，MicroStrategy 的股价一直在疯狂上涨，在这次调整之前的几个月里，其涨幅是比特币的三倍。

As Bitcoin prices climbed 50%, MSTR shares skyrocketed by an astonishing 150%. However, analyst Andrew Harte remains bullish, raising his price target to $1,800, suggesting a potential 10% upside from current trading levels. This upward revision marks a significant increase from his previous estimate of $780.

随着比特币价格上涨 50%，MSTR 股价飙升了惊人的 150%。然而，分析师安德鲁·哈特（Andrew Harte）仍然看涨，将其价格目标提高至 1,800 美元，这表明该价格较当前交易水平可能上涨 10%。此次上调标志着他之前预估的 780 美元大幅上涨。

Over the past month, MicroStrategy's stock has outperformed Wall Street expectations, mirroring the impressive gains of Bitcoin. With over 214,000 Bitcoins under its belt as of March 18, the company's stock has closely tracked the leading cryptocurrency's ascent, even surpassing its returns.

过去一个月，MicroStrategy 的股票表现超出了华尔街的预期，反映出比特币的惊人涨幅。截至 3 月 18 日，该公司拥有超过 214,000 枚比特币，其股价一直紧随这一领先加密货币的上涨，甚至超过了其回报率。

Despite this surge, the price targets set by Bloomberg-tracked analysts still fall short of MSTR's intraday record high of $1999.99 set in March. According to Harte, investors are willing to pay a premium for MicroStrategy's Bitcoin exposure, a premium that has stabilized above 2x, based on sum-of-the-parts analysis.

尽管价格飙升，但彭博追踪分析师设定的目标价仍低于 MSTR 3 月份创下的盘中历史新高 1999.99 美元。 Harte 表示，投资者愿意为 MicroStrategy 的比特币敞口支付溢价，根据综合分析，溢价已稳定在 2 倍以上。

Harte also predicts that MicroStrategy will benefit from Bitcoin's upcoming halving event, estimated to occur this month. Halving refers to the process where the supply of Bitcoin is reduced by 50%, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block mined.

Harte 还预测，MicroStrategy 将受益于即将于本月发生的比特币减半事件。减半是指比特币供应量减少 50%，从每个开采区块 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC 的过程。

"We expect the company to benefit from Bitcoin catalysts during the coming year, specifically the Bitcoin halving event estimated to take place this month," Harte noted.

哈特指出：“我们预计该公司将在来年受益于比特币催化剂，特别是预计本月发生的比特币减半事件。”

The Bitcoin halving event is widely anticipated to boost the value of the cryptocurrency, as it has historically led to significant price increases. In the year following the three previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin soared by 80x, 4x, and 6x, respectively.

人们普遍预计比特币减半事件将提升加密货币的价值，因为它在历史上曾导致价格大幅上涨。在前三次减半之后的一年里，比特币的价格分别飙升了 80 倍、4 倍和 6 倍。

Harte presents both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for MicroStrategy. Should the premium on the company's Bitcoin holdings diminish and regulatory pressures impact the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin to regress towards $48,000, Harte estimates that shares could decline to $700.

Harte 对 MicroStrategy 提出了乐观和悲观的情景。 Harte 估计，如果该公司持有的比特币溢价减少且监管压力影响加密货币市场，导致比特币回落至 48,000 美元，股价可能会跌至 700 美元。

However, in a more bullish outlook where Bitcoin surpasses $90,000 and the premium on MicroStrategy's holdings increases, Harte predicts a stock price of $2,700, representing a substantial gain of nearly 70% from its current level.

然而，在比特币突破 90,000 美元且 MicroStrategy 持有的溢价增加的更为乐观的前景中，Harte 预测股价为 2,700 美元，较当前水平大幅上涨近 70%。

According to Harte, "Investors view Bitcoin as a safe haven from inflation in the face of fiscal stimulus from central banks, and we expect continued adoption from institutional investors as Bitcoin serves as a disinflationary asset."

哈特表示，“面对央行的财政刺激，投资者将比特币视为抵御通胀的避风港，我们预计机构投资者将继续采用比特币，因为比特币是一种通货紧缩资产。”