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随着市场的摆动和资本逃离风险资产,迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)坚持不懈。战略的创始人,对宏观经济动荡无动于衷
As the markets wobble and capital flees risk assets, Michael Saylor persists. The founder of Strategy, indifferent to macroeconomic turmoil, has just added more than 22,000 bitcoins to his treasury.
随着市场的摆动和资本逃离风险资产,迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)坚持不懈。战略的创始人对宏观经济动荡无动于衷,刚刚在他的财政部增加了22,000多名比特币。
Indeed, the timing raises questions: the BTC correction is intensifying, geopolitical uncertainty is setting in, and overall, the winds of pessimism are swirling in the markets. Yet, Saylor does not waver. For him, bitcoin is not a gamble, it is a conviction—a stark position, counter to the consensus, that sparks lively debate.
的确,时机提出了问题:BTC的校正正在加剧,地缘政治不确定性正在设定,总体而言,悲观的风在市场上旋转。但是,塞勒不会动摇。对他来说,比特币不是一场赌博,这是一种信念 - 一个鲜明的立场,与共识相反,引发了活泼的辩论。
A massive bitcoin buy despite market signals
尽管市场信号
On March 31, Strategy disclosed the acquisition of 22,048 bitcoins, bringing its total portfolio to 528,185 BTC. This decision comes after a brief pause in purchases, breaking a series of several consecutive acquisitions.
3月31日,战略披露了22,048个比特币的收购,将其总投资组合提高到528,185 BTC。这项决定是在购买短暂停顿之后,打破了一系列连续的收购。
The latent valuation of these assets now exceeds 8.6 billion dollars, with an overall return of about 24 % since the company’s initial investments in 2023. This operation is part of a broader strategy to invest up to 40 billion dollars in bitcoin by 2025.
这些资产的潜在估值现在超过86亿美元,自2023年公司初次投资以来,总回报率约为24%。此操作是到2025年在比特币上投资多达400亿美元的更广泛战略的一部分。
This new purchase was executed as bitcoin fell back below 80,000 dollars, in a context of high volatility induced by macroeconomic tensions and a latent threat of a bear market.
在比特币低于80,000美元的情况下,这项新的购买是在宏观经济紧张局势和熊市潜在威胁引起的。
Far from being intimidated by this retreat, Michael Saylor asserts that “bitcoin is the best long-term asset available today,” which justifies the continuation of this accumulation strategy despite market signals.
迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)并没有受到这种务虚会的恐吓,他断言“比特币是当今最佳的长期资产”,这证明了尽管市场信号,但尽管如此,该积累策略的延续是合理的。
Such an approach by Strategy is based on several quantitative observations :
策略的这种方法基于几种定量观察:
This analysis leads Strategy to prefer bitcoin over other assets classes, leading it to gradually sell off its remaining equity securities to channel the proceeds into BTC.
该分析导致策略比比特币相比,而不是其他资产类别,使其逐渐出售其剩余的股票证券,以将收益转移到BTC中。
A growing dependence on an unstable asset
对不稳定资产的依赖日益增长
Strategy’s appetite for bitcoin is not solely fueled by its cash reserves. Thus, the company recently announced plans to raise 21 billion dollars through the issuance of preferred shares, with the explicit goal of financing its BTC purchases.
策略对比特币的需求不仅仅是其现金储备的助长。因此,该公司最近宣布了通过发行优先股的计划筹集210亿美元的计划,其明确的目标是为其BTC购买提供资金。
This approach, unveiled during a presentation to analysts, reinforces a strategy already criticized for its high leverage and almost monolithic exposure to a single asset. In a period where even the smallest price movement can lead to significant fluctuations on the balance sheet, this orientation raises increasing concerns.
这种方法在演讲中揭示了分析师,并加强了一项已经批评的策略,因为它的高杠杆作用和几乎单一的单一资产曝光。在即使最小的价格变动也可能导致资产负债表的显着波动的时期,这种方向引起了人们的关注。
Moreover, Strategy’s stock price has lost more than half its value since the beginning of 2022, partly due to the depreciation of bitcoin and the company’s own valuation difficulties.
此外,自2022年初以来,Strategy的股价损失了其价值的一半以上,部分原因是比特币的贬值和公司自身的估值困难。
According to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, this situation could lead to a perspective of returning to sustained inflation between 10 and 15 % over the next decade. In this context, he believes that bitcoin could “start to compete with gold in its use cases,” which would solidify its position as a safe haven.
据Blockstream首席执行官亚当·Back(Adam Back)称,这种情况可能会导致在未来十年中恢复10%至15%之间的持续通货膨胀的观点。在这种情况下,他认为比特币可以“在用例中开始与黄金竞争”,这将巩固其作为避风港的地位。
However, this hypothesis is not universally accepted, especially since the extreme dependence of a public company on such a volatile asset remains a bold, if not perilous, bet.
但是,这一假设并未被普遍接受,尤其是因为上市公司对这种波动性资产的极端依赖仍然是大胆的,即使不是危险的赌注。
In the event of a prolonged correction or unfavorable regulation, Strategy could find itself in a delicate position, which would affect its stock valuation, as well as its ability to raise new funds. This polarizing positioning, between conviction and speculation, will no doubt receive sustained attention in the months to come, as macroeconomic winds continue to blow. Michael Saylor’s strategy, as visionary as it may be, will still have to prove itself in a rapidly changing global economy.
如果经过长时间的纠正或不利的监管,策略可能会发现自己处于微妙的位置,这将影响其库存估值以及筹集新资金的能力。在定罪和猜测之间,这种两极分化的位置无疑将在未来几个月内受到持续关注,因为宏观经济风继续吹响。迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)的战略,尽管可能是有远见的,但仍必须证明自己在迅速变化的全球经济中。
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