泵上的Memecoin Frenzy。

“毕业率”是Memecoin Launchpad的代币术语，它可以通过孵化阶段并变得完全可交易

The memecoin frenzy on Pump.fun is apparently hitting a wall, with the platform’s “graduation rate” sinking below 1% for a fourth straight week.

Fum.fun上的Memecoin Frenzy显然正在撞墙，该平台的“毕业率”连续第四周下沉到1％以下。

“Graduation rate” is the memecoin launchpad’s term for tokens that make it through the incubation phase and become fully tradable on a Solana decentralized exchange (DEX). To graduate, a token must meet specific liquidity and trading requirements.

“毕业率”是Memecoin LaunchPad的代币术语，它可以通过孵化阶段，并在Solana Solana分散交易所（DEX）上完全交易。要毕业，代币必须满足特定的流动性和交易要求。

Over the past four weeks, starting Feb. 17, Pump.fun’s graduation rate has remained below 1% for the first time, according to Dune Analytics data.

根据Dune Analytics数据，在过去四个星期（从2月17日开始），Fump.Fun的毕业率首次保持低于1％。

Pump.fun's tanking token success rate. Source: Dune Analytics

泵。资料来源：沙丘分析

Pump.fun’s graduation rate has never been particularly high. The platform’s best-performing week was in November 2024 when 1.67% of memecoins moved on to the open market.

Fump.Fun的毕业率从未如此高。该平台表现最佳的一周是在2024年11月，当时有1.67％的Memecoins转移到公开市场。

However, the sheer volume of tokens launched on the platform at the time made this percentage more significant than it is now. During the week starting Nov. 11, 323,000 tokens were created on Pump.fun, meaning the 1.67% graduation rate translated to roughly 5,400 tokens entering Solana’s DeFi economy in a single week.

但是，当时在平台上推出的庞大的令牌使该百分比比现在更加重要。在11月11日开始的一周中，在Pump.Fun上创建了323,000个令牌，这意味着1.67％的毕业率转化为大约5,400个令牌，在一个星期内进入Solana的Defi经济。

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With token creation volume declining on both Pump.fun and Solana, weekly token graduations have plummeted to a four-week average of around 1,500 tokens at the time of writing, according to Dune.

根据Dune的说法，随着代币的创建量在泵。FUN和SOLANA的下降，每周的代币毕业在写作时的平均为1,500个令牌约为1,500个令牌。

Memecoins are dying, and they’re not responding to positive market signals

Memecoin即将死亡，他们没有回应积极的市场信号

Pump.fun’s dropping graduation rate reflects waning investor appetite for memecoins, which have developed a reputation as degenerate lottery tickets or quick cash grabs for their creators.

Pump.Fun的下降毕业率反映了对Memecoins的兴趣，后者以退化的彩票票或快速的现金抢购而闻名。

Several political figures have launched their own memecoins as well, including US President Donald Trump. His token is down 84% from its all-time high set on Jan. 19, according to CoinGecko.

包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在内的几个政治人物也推出了自己的成员。根据Coingecko的说法，他的代币比1月19日的历史最高点下降了84％。

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Memecoins’ struggles persist despite improving liquidity, according to Matrixport. In February, Matrixport analysts noted that a strengthening US dollar had pressured Bitcoin prices by tightening dollar-denominated liquidity.

根据Matrixport的说法，尽管有提高了流动性，但Memecoins的挣扎仍然存在。 2月，Matrixport分析师指出，加强美元通过收紧了美元计数的流动性来压力比特币价格。

Since then, the US dollar has weakened. Over the past month, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, peaked at 107.61 on Feb. 28 before dropping to 103.95 on March 14.

从那以后，美元削弱了。在过去的一个月中，美元指数（DXY）衡量了一篮子主要货币的美元，在2月28日达到107.61的峰值，然后在3月14日下降至103.95。

DXY performance in the past month shows the US dollar weakening. Source: TradingView

过去一个月的DXY表现显示美元削弱。资料来源：TradingView

“The US dollar has recently weakened, leading to a rebound in liquidity indicators and some marginal improvements in inflation data. Despite these positive shifts, memecoins — previously one of the strongest narratives during this bull market — continue to struggle significantly, with no apparent recovery,” Matrixport said in its report.

“美元最近削弱了，导致流动性指标的反弹和通货膨胀数据的边缘改善。尽管有这些积极的转变，但Memecoins（以前是这个牛市中最强大的叙述之一）仍在持续挣扎，没有明显的恢复。” Matrixport在其报告中说。

Bitcoin caught in memecoins' aftershocks

比特币陷入了Memecoins的余震中

The struggling memecoin market has contributed to a $1 trillion wipeout in crypto market capitalization, according to Matrixport.

根据Matrixport的数据，陷入困境的Memecoin市场在加密市值中造成了1万亿美元的消失。

“This redistribution of wealth may lead investors to remain cautious about deploying further capital, causing rebounds — even those triggered by better-than-expected inflation data — to be limited,” the report noted.

该报告指出：“财富的这种重新分配可能会导致投资者对部署进一步的资本保持谨慎，从而造成篮板，即使是由预期的通货膨胀数据触发的篮板，也受到限制。”

Matrixport analysts warn that this could lead to further Bitcoin declines, with a potential retracement to as low as $73,000 — a level they believe would provide “strong support.”

Matrixport分析师警告说，这可能会导致比特币的进一步下降，潜在的回溯到73,000美元，他们认为这将提供“强大的支持”。