马修·西格尔 (Matthew Sigel) 预测比特币 (BTC) 价格将在美国大选前上涨

加密货币市场正在见证新的乐观情绪，尤其是比特币（BTC）。投资管理公司 VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 最近分享的见解表明，随着选举日的临近，比特币有望呈现积极趋势。

As the U.S. presidential election on November 5 approaches, cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a renewed sense of optimism, particularly regarding Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at investment management firm VanEck, shared his insights, indicating a positive outlook for Bitcoin as the election day nears.

随着 11 月 5 日美国总统大选的临近，加密货币市场正在经历新的乐观情绪，尤其是比特币 (BTC)。近日，投资管理公司 VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 分享了他的见解，表明随着选举日的临近，比特币前景乐观。

With Bitcoin currently hovering around the $70,000 mark, many investors are eager to understand the implications of the upcoming political landscape on cryptocurrency values. Here's a closer look at Sigel's perspectives and the broader context.

由于比特币目前徘徊在 70,000 美元大关附近，许多投资者渴望了解即将到来的政治格局对加密货币价值的影响。以下是对 Sigel 的观点和更广泛背景的更深入的了解。

Insights from VanEck Leadership

VanEck 领导层的见解

In a recent appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, Sigel expressed his bullish perspective on Bitcoin, highlighting the potential implications of a Trump victory in the upcoming elections. He noted that Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance stands in contrast to that of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has not prioritized crypto in her policy discussions.

西格尔最近在 CNBC 的 Squawk Box 节目中表达了他对比特币的看涨观点，强调了特朗普在即将到来的选举中获胜的潜在影响。他指出，特朗普支持加密货币的立场与其民主党竞争对手、副总统卡马拉·哈里斯形成鲜明对比，哈里斯在政策讨论中并未优先考虑加密货币。

“Trump is undoubtedly the candidate for crypto and Bitcoin,” Sigel stated, suggesting that Harris's lack of engagement with cryptocurrency could impact investor sentiment towards the Democratic ticket.

西格尔表示：“特朗普无疑是加密货币和比特币的候选人。”他暗示哈里斯缺乏与加密货币的接触可能会影响投资者对民主党候选人的情绪。

Economic Correlations at Play

经济相关性的发挥

Beyond political affiliations, Sigel also emphasized the economic indicators that often correlate with Bitcoin's price movements. He explained that Bitcoin has historically exhibited a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar and a positive correlation with the M2 money supply. With the current acceleration of the money supply, this could provide a conducive environment for Bitcoin's value to rise.

除了政治立场之外，西格尔还强调了通常与比特币价格走势相关的经济指标。他解释说，比特币历史上与美元呈现负相关性，与M2货币供应量呈正相关性。随着当前货币供应量的加速，这可能为比特币的价值上涨提供有利的环境。

Sigel further mentioned that both the U.S. and German governments have reduced their Bitcoin sales by around $2 billion recently. This reduction could help stabilize the market, making it more favorable for Bitcoin investors, particularly as the elections loom.

Sigel 进一步提到，美国和德国政府最近都将比特币销售额减少了约 20 亿美元。这种减少可能有助于稳定市场，使其对比特币投资者更加有利，尤其是在选举临近之际。

Historical Patterns and Bitcoin's Behavior

历史模式和比特币的行为

Looking back at past election cycles, Sigel identified notable patterns that Bitcoin has followed, particularly during the 2020 presidential elections.

回顾过去的选举周期，Sigel 发现了比特币遵循的显着模式，特别是在 2020 年总统选举期间。

“Our prediction is that Bitcoin may replicate this behavior in the current election cycle,” Sigel explained. “In 2020, we observed Bitcoin lingering in a period of low volatility before experiencing a significant uptick in trading volume and price post-election.”

“我们的预测是，比特币可能会在当前的选举周期中复制这种行为，”西格尔解释道。 “2020 年，我们观察到比特币徘徊在低波动期，然后在选举后经历了交易量和价格的大幅上升。”

This historical perspective adds credibility to Sigel's forecast, suggesting that the current political and economic climate could set the stage for a similar bullish trend in Bitcoin prices.

这一历史视角增加了西格尔预测的可信度，表明当前的政治和经济气候可能为比特币价格的类似看涨趋势奠定基础。

The Current Landscape for Bitcoin

比特币的当前格局

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $70,045. With the election just days away, many investors are keen to monitor market fluctuations closely. The current state of the cryptocurrency market is characterized by heightened volatility, and the impending election is likely to exacerbate this trend as investors reposition their assets in response to political developments.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 70,045 美元。距离大选仅剩几天，许多投资者热衷于密切关注市场波动。加密货币市场目前的特点是波动性加剧，而即将到来的选举可能会加剧这一趋势，因为投资者会根据政治发展重新配置资产。

Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the cryptocurrency space. The uncertainty that often accompanies elections can lead to increased trading activity, as individuals and institutions alike look to capitalize on potential market movements. Should Trump gain momentum in his election bid, this could further bolster bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.

投资者情绪在加密货币领域发挥着至关重要的作用。选举经常伴随的不确定性可能会导致交易活动增加，因为个人和机构都希望利用潜在的市场走势。如果特朗普在竞选中获得动力，这可能会进一步提振围绕比特币的看涨情绪。

Broader Economic Context

更广泛的经济背景

In the wider U.S. economic landscape, factors such as job market stability and inflation rates also influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Recent reports indicate that despite challenges like natural disasters and labor strikes, the U.S. labor market has shown resilience. Initial jobless claims dropped to 227,000 last week, reflecting a stable employment environment that could foster investor confidence.

在更广泛的美国经济格局中，就业市场稳定性和通胀率等因素也会影响比特币的走势。最近的报告表明，尽管面临自然灾害和劳工罢工等挑战，美国劳动力市场仍表现出韧性。上周初请失业金人数下降至 227,000 人，反映出稳定的就业环境可以增强投资者信心。

Additionally, the housing market presents a mixed bag of trends, with new home sales rising in September due to lower mortgage rates, while existing home sales have dipped to their lowest levels since 2010. These mixed signals can add layers of complexity to how investors view the overall economic health as the election approaches.

此外，房地产市场呈现出复杂的趋势，由于抵押贷款利率下降，9 月份新屋销售量有所上升，而现有房屋销售量已降至 2010 年以来的最低水平。这些混合信号可能会增加投资者看法的复杂性随着选举的临近，整体经济健康状况。

Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrency

机构对加密货币的兴趣

The growing interest from institutional investors further underscores the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. Recently, institutions such as Emory University have begun investing in digital assets, signaling a shift towards broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies among traditional financial entities. This trend reflects a growing recognition of the potential for digital assets to provide value in diversified portfolios.

机构投资者日益增长的兴趣进一步凸显了加密货币不断变化的格局。最近，埃默里大学等机构开始投资数字资产，这标志着传统金融实体正在转向更广泛地接受加密货币。这一趋势反映出人们越来越认识到数字资产在多元化投资组合中提供价值的潜力。

Moreover, discussions around major corporations like Microsoft potentially exploring Bitcoin as a treasury asset indicate that institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is gaining traction. Although the company's board has expressed caution due to Bitcoin's volatility and regulatory concerns, any movement in this direction could enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy in the corporate world.

此外，围绕微软等大公司可能探索比特币作为财务资产的讨论表明，机构对加密货币的兴趣正在增强。尽管该公司董事会因比特币的波动性和监管问题而表示谨慎，但朝这个方向的任何举动都可能增强比特币在企业界的合法性。

Preparing for Market Movements

为市场走势做好准备

As the election draws closer, Sigel's predictions offer valuable insights for investors navigating the cryptocurrency landscape. Understanding how political events can shape market dynamics is essential for making informed decisions. The interplay between economic indicators, investor sentiment, and political developments could lead to significant price movements in the coming weeks.

随着选举的临近，Sigel 的预测为投资者在加密货币领域的发展提供了宝贵的见解。了解政治事件如何影响市场动态对于做出明智的决策至关重要。经济指标、投资者情绪和政治事态发展之间的相互作用可能会导致未来几周的价格大幅波动。

For those invested in Bitcoin or considering entering the market, staying informed about both macroeconomic conditions and specific political developments is critical. The upcoming elections may serve as a catalyst for change, creating opportunities as well as risks.

对于那些投资比特币或考虑进入市场的人来说，了解宏观经济状况和具体政治发展至关重要。即将举行的选举可能会成为变革的催化剂，创造机遇和风险。

Conclusion

结论

Matthew Sigel's insights into Bitcoin's potential performance ahead of the U.S. presidential elections highlight the intricate connections

马修·西格尔 (Matthew Sigel) 对美国总统大选前比特币潜在表现的见解凸显了其中错综复杂的联系