馬修·西格爾 (Matthew Sigel) 預測比特幣 (BTC) 價格將在美國大選前上漲

加密貨幣市場正在見證新的樂觀情緒，尤其是比特幣（BTC）。投資管理公司 VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 最近分享的見解表明，隨著選舉日的臨近，比特幣有望呈現正面趨勢。

As the U.S. presidential election on November 5 approaches, cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a renewed sense of optimism, particularly regarding Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at investment management firm VanEck, shared his insights, indicating a positive outlook for Bitcoin as the election day nears.

隨著 11 月 5 日美國總統大選的臨近，加密貨幣市場正在經歷新的樂觀情緒，尤其是比特幣 (BTC)。近日，投資管理公司 VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 分享了他的見解，表明隨著選舉日的臨近，比特幣前景樂觀。

With Bitcoin currently hovering around the $70,000 mark, many investors are eager to understand the implications of the upcoming political landscape on cryptocurrency values. Here's a closer look at Sigel's perspectives and the broader context.

由於比特幣目前徘徊在 7 萬美元大關附近，許多投資者渴望了解即將到來的政治格局對加密貨幣價值的影響。以下是對 Sigel 的觀點和更廣泛背景的更深入的了解。

Insights from VanEck Leadership

VanEck 領導層的見解

In a recent appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box, Sigel expressed his bullish perspective on Bitcoin, highlighting the potential implications of a Trump victory in the upcoming elections. He noted that Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance stands in contrast to that of his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, who has not prioritized crypto in her policy discussions.

西格爾最近在 CNBC 的 Squawk Box 節目中表達了他對比特幣的看漲觀點，強調了川普在即將到來的選舉中獲勝的潛在影響。他指出，川普支持加密貨幣的立場與其民主黨競爭對手、副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯形成鮮明對比，哈里斯在政策討論中並未優先考慮加密貨幣。

“Trump is undoubtedly the candidate for crypto and Bitcoin,” Sigel stated, suggesting that Harris's lack of engagement with cryptocurrency could impact investor sentiment towards the Democratic ticket.

西格爾表示：「川普無疑是加密貨幣和比特幣的候選人。」他暗示哈里斯缺乏與加密貨幣的接觸可能會影響投資者對民主黨候選人的情緒。

Economic Correlations at Play

經濟相關性的發揮

Beyond political affiliations, Sigel also emphasized the economic indicators that often correlate with Bitcoin's price movements. He explained that Bitcoin has historically exhibited a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar and a positive correlation with the M2 money supply. With the current acceleration of the money supply, this could provide a conducive environment for Bitcoin's value to rise.

除了政治立場之外，西格爾還強調了通常與比特幣價格走勢相關的經濟指標。他解釋說，比特幣歷史上與美元呈現負相關性，與M2貨幣供應量呈正相關性。隨著當前貨幣供應量的加速，這可能為比特幣的價值上漲提供有利的環境。

Sigel further mentioned that both the U.S. and German governments have reduced their Bitcoin sales by around $2 billion recently. This reduction could help stabilize the market, making it more favorable for Bitcoin investors, particularly as the elections loom.

Sigel 進一步提到，美國和德國政府最近都將比特幣銷售額減少了約 20 億美元。這種減少可能有助於穩定市場，使其對比特幣投資者更加有利，尤其是在選舉臨近之際。

Historical Patterns and Bitcoin's Behavior

歷史模式和比特幣的行為

Looking back at past election cycles, Sigel identified notable patterns that Bitcoin has followed, particularly during the 2020 presidential elections.

回顧過去的選舉週期，Sigel 發現了比特幣遵循的顯著模式，特別是在 2020 年總統選舉期間。

“Our prediction is that Bitcoin may replicate this behavior in the current election cycle,” Sigel explained. “In 2020, we observed Bitcoin lingering in a period of low volatility before experiencing a significant uptick in trading volume and price post-election.”

「我們的預測是，比特幣可能會在當前的選舉週期中複製這種行為，」西格爾解釋道。 “2020 年，我們觀察到比特幣徘徊在低波動期，然後在選舉後經歷了交易量和價格的大幅上升。”

This historical perspective adds credibility to Sigel's forecast, suggesting that the current political and economic climate could set the stage for a similar bullish trend in Bitcoin prices.

這一歷史視角增加了西格爾預測的可信度，顯示當前的政治和經濟氣候可能為比特幣價格的類似看漲趨勢奠定基礎。

The Current Landscape for Bitcoin

比特幣的當前格局

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $70,045. With the election just days away, many investors are keen to monitor market fluctuations closely. The current state of the cryptocurrency market is characterized by heightened volatility, and the impending election is likely to exacerbate this trend as investors reposition their assets in response to political developments.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 70,045 美元。距離大選僅剩幾天，許多投資者熱衷於密切關注市場波動。加密貨幣市場目前的特點是波動性加劇，而即將到來的選舉可能會加劇這一趨勢，因為投資者會根據政治發展重新配置資產。

Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the cryptocurrency space. The uncertainty that often accompanies elections can lead to increased trading activity, as individuals and institutions alike look to capitalize on potential market movements. Should Trump gain momentum in his election bid, this could further bolster bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.

投資者情緒在加密貨幣領域發揮著至關重要的作用。選舉經常伴隨的不確定性可能會導致交易活動增加，因為個人和機構都希望利用潛在的市場趨勢。如果川普在競選中獲得動力，這可能會進一步提振圍繞比特幣的看漲情緒。

Broader Economic Context

更廣泛的經濟背景

In the wider U.S. economic landscape, factors such as job market stability and inflation rates also influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Recent reports indicate that despite challenges like natural disasters and labor strikes, the U.S. labor market has shown resilience. Initial jobless claims dropped to 227,000 last week, reflecting a stable employment environment that could foster investor confidence.

在更廣泛的美國經濟格局中，就業市場穩定性和通膨率等因素也會影響比特幣的走勢。最近的報告表明，儘管面臨自然災害和勞工罷工等挑戰，美國勞動力市場仍表現出韌性。上週初請失業金人數下降至 227,000 人，反映出穩定的就業環境可以增強投資者信心。

Additionally, the housing market presents a mixed bag of trends, with new home sales rising in September due to lower mortgage rates, while existing home sales have dipped to their lowest levels since 2010. These mixed signals can add layers of complexity to how investors view the overall economic health as the election approaches.

此外，房地產市場呈現出複雜的趨勢，由於抵押貸款利率下降，9 月份新屋銷售量有所上升，而現有房屋銷售量已降至2010 年以來的最低水平。的複雜性隨著選舉的臨近，整體經濟健康。

Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrency

機構對加密貨幣的興趣

The growing interest from institutional investors further underscores the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. Recently, institutions such as Emory University have begun investing in digital assets, signaling a shift towards broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies among traditional financial entities. This trend reflects a growing recognition of the potential for digital assets to provide value in diversified portfolios.

機構投資者日益增長的興趣進一步凸顯了加密貨幣不斷變化的格局。最近，埃默里大學等機構開始投資數位資產，這標誌著傳統金融實體正在轉向更廣泛地接受加密貨幣。這一趨勢反映出人們越來越認識到數位資產在多元化投資組合中提供價值的潛力。

Moreover, discussions around major corporations like Microsoft potentially exploring Bitcoin as a treasury asset indicate that institutional interest in cryptocurrencies is gaining traction. Although the company's board has expressed caution due to Bitcoin's volatility and regulatory concerns, any movement in this direction could enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy in the corporate world.

此外，圍繞微軟等大公司可能探索比特幣作為財務資產的討論表明，機構對加密貨幣的興趣正在增強。儘管該公司董事會因比特幣的波動性和監管問題而表示謹慎，但朝這個方向的任何舉動都可能增強比特幣在企業界的合法性。

Preparing for Market Movements

為市場走勢做好準備

As the election draws closer, Sigel's predictions offer valuable insights for investors navigating the cryptocurrency landscape. Understanding how political events can shape market dynamics is essential for making informed decisions. The interplay between economic indicators, investor sentiment, and political developments could lead to significant price movements in the coming weeks.

隨著選舉的臨近，Sigel 的預測為投資者在加密貨幣領域的發展提供了寶貴的見解。了解政治事件如何影響市場動態對於做出明智的決策至關重要。經濟指標、投資者情緒和政治事態發展之間的相互作用可能會導致未來幾週的價格大幅波動。

For those invested in Bitcoin or considering entering the market, staying informed about both macroeconomic conditions and specific political developments is critical. The upcoming elections may serve as a catalyst for change, creating opportunities as well as risks.

對於那些投資比特幣或考慮進入市場的人來說，了解宏觀經濟狀況和具體政治發展至關重要。即將舉行的選舉可能會成為變革的催化劑，創造機會和風險。

Conclusion

結論

Matthew Sigel's insights into Bitcoin's potential performance ahead of the U.S. presidential elections highlight the intricate connections

馬修·西格爾 (Matthew Sigel) 對美國總統大選前比特幣潛在表現的見解凸顯了其中錯綜複雜的聯繫