Matthew Sigel 预测 2025 年加密货币市场：比特币 (BTC) 到 2025 年第一季度可能飙升至 180,000 美元

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 分享了对 2025 年加密货币市场的深入预测。

A head of digital asset research at VanEck has shared an in-depth forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管分享了对 2025 年加密货币市场的深入预测。

According to the analysis by Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could skyrocket to $180,000 by the first quarter of 2025, reaching a new all-time high before undergoing a major correction.

根据 Matthew Sigel 的分析，比特币（BTC-USD）到 2025 年第一季度可能会飙升至 18 万美元，在经历重大调整之前达到历史新高。

Meanwhile, ETH is projected to trade above $6,000. Sigel also anticipates significant growth for other key projects, with Solana (SOL-USD) potentially surpassing $500 and Sui (SUI) exceeding $10.

与此同时，ETH 预计交易价格将超过 6,000 美元。 Sigel 还预计其他关键项目将出现显着增长，其中 Solana (SOL-USD) 可能会超过 500 美元，Sui (SUI) 可能会超过 10 美元。

Following this peak, Sigel predicts a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s value, while altcoins might see even steeper declines—up to 60%, particularly during the summer.

Sigel 预测，在这个峰值之后，比特币的价值将下跌 30%，而山寨币的跌幅可能会更大——高达 60%，尤其是在夏季。

However, several key indicators are crucial for investors to watch, Sigel noted. One such signal is the sustained high funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures. If these rates remain above 10% for three months or more, it might indicate an over-speculative market, hinting at an approaching peak.

然而，西格尔指出，有几个关键指标对于投资者来说至关重要。其中一个信号是比特币永续期货的持续高融资利率。如果这些利率在三个月或更长时间内保持在 10% 以上，则可能表明市场投机过度，暗示峰值即将到来。

Additionally, the proportion of Bitcoin holders with significant unrealized profits—specifically when the profit-to-cost ratio exceeds 70%—is another warning sign of market euphoria.

此外，拥有大量未实现利润的比特币持有者比例——特别是当利润成本比超过 70% 时——是市场兴奋的另一个警告信号。

Bitcoin’s market dominance is also a vital metric; a decline below 40% could suggest that speculative interest has shifted too heavily towards altcoins, which often marks the late stages of a bull market cycle.

比特币的市场主导地位也是一个重要指标。跌幅低于 40% 可能表明投机兴趣已过度转向山寨币，这通常标志着牛市周期的后期阶段。

This shift could be driven by the market’s reaction to political changes, notably Donald Trump’s recent election win and his anticipated crypto-friendly cabinet, including notable figures like JD Vance as Vice President and Paul Atkins leading the SEC. These appointments could shift policy from restrictive to supportive, viewing Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as a strategic one.

这种转变可能是由市场对政治变化的反应推动的，特别是唐纳德·特朗普最近的选举胜利和他预期的对加密货币友好的内阁，其中包括担任副总统的 JD Vance 和领导 SEC 的保罗·阿特金斯等著名人物。这些任命可能会将政策从限制性转变为支持性，不仅将比特币视为一种投机资产，而且将其视为一种战略资产。

Despite the expected correction, Sigel’s forecast includes a recovery phase in the fall of 2020, where major cryptocurrencies are likely to revisit their all-time highs.

尽管出现了预期的修正，Sigel 的预测包括 2020 年秋季的复苏阶段，届时主要加密货币可能会重新触及历史高点。

This recovery is contingent on continued institutional interest and favorable regulatory adjustments under the new administration, which might encourage further adoption of digital assets.

这种复苏取决于新政府的持续机构兴趣和有利的监管调整，这可能会鼓励进一步采用数字资产。

Sigel’s predictions provide a roadmap for investors, balancing optimism with caution. He advises vigilance for signs of market tops and suggests preparing for volatility, particularly through the summer months, yet he holds a generally bullish view on the market’s trajectory, supported by political shifts and institutional investments.

西格尔的预测为投资者提供了平衡乐观与谨慎的路线图。他建议对市场见顶的迹象保持警惕，并建议为波动做好准备，特别是在夏季，但在政治转变和机构投资的支持下，他对市场轨迹总体持乐观态度。

This nuanced approach underscores the complex interplay between market dynamics, political influence, and investor behavior in the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets.

这种微妙的方法强调了在不断变化的加密货币市场格局中，市场动态、政治影响和投资者行为之间复杂的相互作用。