Matthew Sigel 預測 2025 年加密貨幣市場：比特幣 (BTC) 到 2025 年第一季可能飆升至 18 萬美元

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 分享了 2025 年加密貨幣市場的深入預測。

A head of digital asset research at VanEck has shared an in-depth forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管分享了 2025 年加密貨幣市場的深入預測。

According to the analysis by Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) could skyrocket to $180,000 by the first quarter of 2025, reaching a new all-time high before undergoing a major correction.

根據 Matthew Sigel 的分析，比特幣（BTC-USD）到 2025 年第一季可能會飆升至 18 萬美元，在經歷重大調整之前達到歷史新高。

Meanwhile, ETH is projected to trade above $6,000. Sigel also anticipates significant growth for other key projects, with Solana (SOL-USD) potentially surpassing $500 and Sui (SUI) exceeding $10.

同時，ETH 預計交易價格將超過 6,000 美元。 Sigel 也預計其他關鍵項目將顯著成長，其中 Solana (SOL-USD) 可能會超過 500 美元，Sui (SUI) 可能會超過 10 美元。

Following this peak, Sigel predicts a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s value, while altcoins might see even steeper declines—up to 60%, particularly during the summer.

Sigel 預測，在這個高峰之後，比特幣的價值將下跌 30%，而山寨幣的跌幅可能會更大——高達 60%，尤其是在夏季。

However, several key indicators are crucial for investors to watch, Sigel noted. One such signal is the sustained high funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures. If these rates remain above 10% for three months or more, it might indicate an over-speculative market, hinting at an approaching peak.

然而，西格爾指出，有幾個關鍵指標對投資人來說至關重要。其中一個訊號是比特幣永續期貨的持續高融資利率。如果這些利率在三個月或更長時間內保持在 10% 以上，則可能表示市場投機過度，暗示高峰即將到來。

Additionally, the proportion of Bitcoin holders with significant unrealized profits—specifically when the profit-to-cost ratio exceeds 70%—is another warning sign of market euphoria.

此外，擁有大量未實現利潤的比特幣持有者比例——特別是當利潤成本比超過 70% 時——是市場興奮的另一個警訊。

Bitcoin’s market dominance is also a vital metric; a decline below 40% could suggest that speculative interest has shifted too heavily towards altcoins, which often marks the late stages of a bull market cycle.

比特幣的市場主導地位也是一個重要指標。跌幅低於 40% 可能表示投機興趣已過度轉向山寨幣，這通常標誌著牛市週期的後期階段。

This shift could be driven by the market’s reaction to political changes, notably Donald Trump’s recent election win and his anticipated crypto-friendly cabinet, including notable figures like JD Vance as Vice President and Paul Atkins leading the SEC. These appointments could shift policy from restrictive to supportive, viewing Bitcoin not just as a speculative asset but as a strategic one.

這種轉變可能是由市場對政治變化的反應所推動的，特別是唐納德·川普最近的選舉勝利和他預期的對加密貨幣友好的內閣，其中包括擔任副總統的JD Vance 和領導SEC 的保羅·阿特金斯等著名人物。這些任命可能會將政策從限制性轉變為支持性，不僅將比特幣視為一種投機資產，而且將其視為一種戰略資產。

Despite the expected correction, Sigel’s forecast includes a recovery phase in the fall of 2020, where major cryptocurrencies are likely to revisit their all-time highs.

儘管出現了預期的修正，Sigel 的預測包括 2020 年秋季的復甦階段，屆時主要加密貨幣可能會重新觸及歷史高點。

This recovery is contingent on continued institutional interest and favorable regulatory adjustments under the new administration, which might encourage further adoption of digital assets.

這種復甦取決於新政府的持續機構興趣和有利的監管調整，這可能會鼓勵進一步採用數位資產。

Sigel’s predictions provide a roadmap for investors, balancing optimism with caution. He advises vigilance for signs of market tops and suggests preparing for volatility, particularly through the summer months, yet he holds a generally bullish view on the market’s trajectory, supported by political shifts and institutional investments.

西格爾的預測為投資者提供了平衡樂觀與謹慎的路線圖。他建議對市場見頂的跡象保持警惕，並建議為波動做好準備，特別是在夏季，但在政治轉變和機構投資的支持下，他對市場軌跡總體持樂觀態度。

This nuanced approach underscores the complex interplay between market dynamics, political influence, and investor behavior in the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency markets.

這種微妙的方法強調了在不斷變化的加密貨幣市場格局中，市場動態、政治影響和投資者行為之間的複雜相互作用。