2025年市场展望及应对计划

本文是知名分析师和交易员0xKyle对2025年的市场预测和应对计划。

Original author: 0xKyle

原作者：0xKyle

Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily

Odaily星球日报编译

Translator: Azuma

译者：东

Editor's note: This article is a market forecast and response plan for 2025 by well-known analyst and trader 0xKyle.

编者按：本文是知名分析师、交易员0xKyle对2025年的市场预测和应对计划。

In the following article, 0xKyle analyzes and hypothesizes multiple possible scenarios for Bitcoin and altcoins in 2025, and discusses why active portfolio management will outperform passive portfolio management in the new year. 0xKyle also lists his favorite sectors and tracks at the end of the article, which may be helpful for the layout of the new year.

在接下来的文章中，0xKyle 分析并假设了 2025 年比特币和山寨币的多种可能情景，并讨论了为什么主动投资组合管理在新的一年将优于被动投资组合管理。 0xKyle还在文末列出了自己最喜欢的板块和曲目，或许对新一年的布局有帮助。

The following is the original content of 0xKyle, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.

以下为0xKyle原文内容，由Odaily星球日报翻译。

GM.

总经理。

Predicting the future is difficult, but as traders and investors we should have a plan. Like all other plans, this one will change as the underlying scenario changes - the market is constantly evolving. This plan is based solely on my predictions of market developments over the next year. It provides insights into my thinking through 2025, but should not be construed as financial advice.

预测未来很困难，但作为交易者和投资者，我们应该有一个计划。与所有其他计划一样，这一计划也会随着基本情况的变化而变化——市场在不断发展。这个计划完全基于我对明年市场发展的预测。它提供了我对 2025 年想法的见解，但不应被视为财务建议。

Let me first review my plan for 2024 (Odaily Note: Since this part is mainly a review of Kyle’s personal operations, this article chooses to pass it directly).

先回顾一下我2024年的计划（Odaily注：由于这部分主要是对凯尔个人操作的回顾，所以本文选择直接通过）。

Let's jump right in. As usual, I'll start by discussing the macro expectations/scenarios and then move on to the thematic narrative.

让我们开始吧。像往常一样，我将首先讨论宏观预期/情景，然后转向主题叙述。

Scenario Assumptions

情景假设

A new cycle of “2024 - ??” has begun. I personally believe that this cycle began at the end of 2023, but if we look at this cycle in a more rigorous way, the progress so far is:

新一轮的“2024-??”已经开始了。我个人认为这个周期是从2023年底开始的，但如果我们以更严谨的方式看待这个周期，到目前为止的进展是：

→On January 10, Bitcoin ETF was launched;

→1月10日，比特币ETF上线；

→BTC hit a new high, briefly triggering altcoin season;

→BTC创出新高，短暂引发山寨币季节；

→ Then it entered the volatile period of Q2 and Q3, with BTC hovering between $50,000 and $60,000;

→ 随后进入Q2、Q3波动期，BTC在5万-6万美元之间徘徊；

→After the election day, BTC hit a new high, rising all the way to $100,000;

→选举日后，BTC再创新高，一路上涨至10万美元；

→It has not been able to effectively break through the 100,000 mark for the time being and is currently hovering above 90,000 US dollars.

→暂时未能有效突破10万大关，目前徘徊在9万美元上方。

It is important to note that the alt season often begins at the high point of Bitcoin. The first time was when BTC was hitting $69,000 but failed to break through effectively; the second time was when BTC was hitting $100,000.

值得注意的是，山寨币季节通常从比特币的高点开始。第一次是BTC触及6.9万美元但未能有效突破；第二次是 BTC 触及 10 万美元时。

The next altcoin cycle will likely begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can't predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in Q1 2025, it's also possible that we'll see a repeat of the 2024 Q2/Q3 volatility in the coming months — I have to be prepared for that. So here are all the scenarios I drew up.

下一个山寨币周期可能会在 BTC 稳定在 10 万美元以上之后开始。我无法预测未来，虽然我希望这会在 2025 年第一季度发生，但我们也有可能在未来几个月内看到 2024 年第二季度/第三季度的波动重演 - 我必须为此做好准备。这是我拟定的所有场景。

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together

场景一：比特币和山寨币齐涨

In that case, the rise will be the only theme in 2025, and we will enter another round of alt season. As Bitcoin continues to rise, all currencies will perform well, and we will repeat the last two months of 2024, with the entire market "rising, rising, rising".

那么，上涨将是2025年的唯一主题，我们将进入又一轮山寨币季节。随着比特币持续上涨，所有货币都会表现良好，我们将重复2024年的最后两个月，整个市场“上涨、上涨、上涨”。

Likelihood: 30% - 40%

可能性：30% - 40%

Corresponding strategy: Take advantage of the current "panic" to buy and get on board strong altcoins.

相应的策略：利用当前的“恐慌”购买并加入强势的山寨币。

Hypothesis 2: Bitcoin rises, while other currencies rise slightly

假设二：比特币上涨，其他货币小幅上涨

This will be a repeat of 2024, where we will see altcoins oscillating over the next few months, but Bitcoin is more bullish (because only Bitcoin is going up). Some altcoins will also perform well.

这将是 2024 年的重演，我们将看到山寨币在未来几个月内振荡，但比特币更为看涨（因为只有比特币在上涨）。一些山寨币也会表现良好。

Likelihood: 50% - 60%

可能性：50% - 60%

Corresponding strategy: Still buy during the current “panic”, but you need to invest in altcoins in specific sectors. The key is to avoid areas with high attention and look for the next narrative that may rise.

对应策略：当前“恐慌”时期依然买入，但需要投资特定板块的山寨币。关键是避开高度关注的领域，寻找下一个可能崛起的叙事。

Hypothetical Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall

假设场景 3：比特币上涨，山寨币下跌

This means that the top is now in for altcoins, although Bitcoin will continue to perform well.

这意味着山寨币现在已经见顶，尽管比特币将继续表现良好。

Likelihood: 20% - 30%

可能性：20% - 30%

Corresponding strategy: Sell all altcoins. Although we have to bear some retracements, if the altcoins do not rise, we may have to sell them all.

对应策略：出售所有山寨币。虽然我们要承受一些回撤，但如果山寨币不涨，我们可能就得全部卖掉。

Scenario 4: Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall

情景 4：比特币下跌，山寨币下跌

Likelihood: 10% - 20%.

可能性：10% - 20%。

I believe several things will happen. I believe BTC’s next new high will not take as long as 2024 because the backdrop of macro tailwinds is real. In a cycle where the regulatory environment is hell, ETFs have been launched, but TradFi still

我相信将会发生一些事情。我相信 BTC 的下一个新高不会像 2024 年那么久，因为宏观顺风的背景是真实的。在监管环境地狱般的周期里，ETF已经推出，但TradFi仍然