市场分析师引用过去比特币减半的历史数据，确定下一次 XRP 牛市的潜在时间表

这一预测来自两位市场分析师 PharaohX 和 The Block Bull，他们都分析了比特币减半后 XRP 的价格走势。

As the dust settles on the recent Bitcoin halving, market analysts are turning their attention to what the next eight months could hold for XRP.

随着最近比特币减半的尘埃落定，市场分析师将注意力转向 XRP 未来八个月的走势。

Two analysts, PharaohX and The Block Bull, have independently analyzed XRP’s past price movements following Bitcoin halvings and arrived at similar conclusions. Their analyses suggest that XRP could begin its next bullish move around December 2024 to January 2025.

PharaohX 和 The Block Bull 两位分析师独立分析了比特币减半后 XRP 过去的价格走势，并得出了类似的结论。他们的分析表明，XRP 可能会在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 1 月左右开始下一次看涨走势。

PharaohX observed a pattern emerging from the last two major Bitcoin halvings. He noted that XRP tends to begin its upward movement eight months after each halving, a trend that has held steady in both 2016 and 2020.

PharaohX 观察到了最近两次主要的比特币减半中出现的模式。他指出，XRP 往往会在每次减半后八个月开始上涨，这一趋势在 2016 年和 2020 年都保持稳定。

For instance, after the 2016 Bitcoin halving in July, XRP’s bull run began in March 2017, during which it surged from $0.005 to the all-time high above $3. According to PharaohX, XRP witnessed an impressive 68,000% increase within this period.

例如，2016 年 7 月比特币减半后，XRP 的牛市开始于 2017 年 3 月，期间从 0.005 美元飙升至 3 美元以上的历史高点。据 PharaohX 称，XRP 在此期间上涨了 68,000%，令人印象深刻。

The next halving occurred in May 2020, and similarly, XRP’s bullish move began around January 2021. Although XRP’s gains were smaller during this cycle—around 900%—the milder growth was largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit at the time.

下一次减半发生在 2020 年 5 月，同样，XRP 的看涨走势开始于 2021 年 1 月左右。尽管 XRP 在此周期中的涨幅较小（约 900%），但增长较温和主要是由于美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 的不确定性）当时的诉讼。

With the April 2024 Bitcoin halving now behind us, PharaohX suggests that XRP is likely to initiate its next rally by late December 2024 or early January 2025. This would follow the same pattern as the last two previous cycles.

随着 2024 年 4 月比特币减半的过去，PharaohX 表示 XRP 可能会在 2024 年 12 月下旬或 2025 年 1 月初开始下一次反弹。这将遵循与前两个周期相同的模式。

"This current market cycle has similarities to the 2017 bull run. While it may not be realistic to expect XRP to replicate its 68,000% gain from 2017, I am confident that the altcoin could experience a massive increase," PharaohX stated.

PharaohX 表示：“当前的市场周期与 2017 年的牛市有相似之处。虽然期望 XRP 复制 2017 年 68,000% 的涨幅可能不太现实，但我相信山寨币可能会经历大幅上涨。”

He even presented a hypothetical scenario where a similar percentage increase from the $0.28 low could push XRP to $190. Such a rally would bring XRP’s market cap to $10.8 trillion.

他甚至提出了一个假设情景，即从 0.28 美元低点起类似的百分比上涨可能会将 XRP 推至 190 美元。这样的反弹将使 XRP 的市值达到 10.8 万亿美元。

"A push to $190 is possible, but not guaranteed. However, the court’s declaration that XRP is not a security has removed a major barrier, enabling potential growth in institutional interest, especially with the anticipated introduction of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs),“ PharaohX added.

“有可能升至 190 美元，但不能保证。然而，法院宣布 XRP 不是证券已经消除了一个主要障碍，使机构兴趣有可能增长，特别是在预期推出 XRP 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的情况下，” PharaohX 补充道。

On the other hand, The Block Bull, in his analysis, used a weekly chart to identify the optimal entry point for XRP after each Bitcoin halving.

另一方面，The Block Bull 在他的分析中使用每周图表来确定每次比特币减半后 XRP 的最佳切入点。

His analysis showed that if we count 33 weeks after a Bitcoin halving, it tends to be an ideal entry point, coinciding with previous cycle bottoms.

他的分析表明，如果我们计算比特币减半后的 33 周，这往往是一个理想的切入点，与之前的周期底部一致。

On his chart, he marked this optimal entry point, and interestingly, it lines up with the bottom of XRP in the last two Bitcoin halving cycles.

在他的图表上，他标记了这个最佳切入点，有趣的是，它与过去两个比特币减半周期中 XRP 的底部一致。

According to The Block Bull, this optimal entry point comes around December 9 to 16 this year, a month after the US election. This is in line with PharaohX’s projection for XRP’s next upward movement to begin around December 2024.

据 The Block Bull 称，这个最佳切入点出现在今年 12 月 9 日至 16 日左右，即美国大选一个月后。这与 PharaohX 对 XRP 将于 2024 年 12 月左右开始的下一次上涨的预测一致。

At the time of writing, XRP trades for $0.5181, down 0.65% in the last 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，XRP 交易价格为 0.5181 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌 0.65%。