今天，2025年3月24日，预计在加密货币市场上预计波动率是如此，因此，比特币的价格略有上涨。

上升仍然非常有限，这很有趣，因为它发生在事情可能朝着完全相反的方向发展的时候。

Today, March 24, volatility was expected in the crypto markets, and so it was, so much so that the price of Bitcoin slightly increased.

今天，3月24日，预计加密货币市场的波动性是如此之大，以至于比特币的价格略有上涨。

This rise is still very limited, but it is interesting because it occurred at a time when things could have gone in the exact opposite direction.

这种上升仍然非常有限，但是很有趣，因为它发生在事情可能朝着完全相反的方向发展的时候。

The small turn of Friday

星期五的小转弯

Friday the 21st, there were several signals indicating the possibility of a further decline in the markets.

21日星期五，有几个信号表明市场可能进一步下降。

At this moment, everything depends on the US stock markets, under strong stress due to the negative consequences of Trump’s foreign trade policies.

目前，由于特朗普的外交政策的负面影响，一切都取决于美国股票市场。

Taking as a reference the S&P500 index, the most representative of the US markets, the decline had actually started on February 20, and it had a relative low eleven days ago, on March 13.

作为参考，美国市场中最具代表性的标准普尔指数，实际上是在2月20日开始的，并且在3月13日的11天前相对低。

Since then, the decline seems to have stopped, at least temporarily, but on Friday a possible resumption of the bear phase was expected.

从那时起，至少暂时停止了下降，但是在星期五，预计熊阶段可能会恢复。

However, despite various negative signals, this decline has not restarted.

但是，尽管有各种负面信号，但这种下降尚未重新启动。

In fact, after the rebound on March 14, it seems that a phase of lateralization has begun, still ongoing although still too short to be defined as a trend.

实际上，在3月14日的反弹之后，似乎已经开始了一个横向化阶段，尽管仍然太短而无法定义为趋势。

This is a lateralization below the levels of March 7, which is the last positive day before the drop that led to the relative low of the 13th.

这是低于3月7日的水平，这是导致13号相对低点的下降前一天的最后一天。

So the declining phase actually stopped on March 14, but until Friday the risk of its resumption still seemed high. Instead, after Friday’s performance, the situation has calmed down.

因此，下降的阶段实际上在3月14日停止，但直到星期五，其恢复的风险似乎仍然很高。相反，在周五的表现之后，情况已经平静下来。

The price of Bitcoin over the weekend until today’s rebound

周末直到今天反弹的比特币价格

On the weekend, traditional stock exchanges are closed.

周末，传统的证券交易所已关闭。

On Friday, the price of Bitcoin hardly moved, meaning it held steady just like the US stock markets. It also did not move on Saturday.

星期五，比特币的价格几乎没有动摇，这意味着它像美国股市一样保持稳定。它也没有在星期六移动。

However, already yesterday, probably in anticipation of today’s volatility, the crypto markets seemed to want to anticipate the events, and the price of BTC slightly rose from $83,800 to above $85,000.

但是，昨天，可能是由于今天的波动性，加密货币市场似乎想预料到这些事件，而BTC的价格略有从83,800美元上涨到85,000美元以上。

During the night, the increase in volatility brought it back above $87,000, and it might not be over yet, as the US stock markets have yet to reopen.

在夜间，波动率的增加使它恢复了87,000美元以上，而且可能还没有结束，因为美国股票市场尚未重新开放。

Since it cannot have been the traditional markets influencing the price of Bitcoin over the weekend, the reason must be sought in the crypto markets.

由于不可能是在周末影响比特币价格的传统市场，因此必须在加密市场中寻求原因。

In fact, over the weekend the selling pressure of BTC on crypto exchanges decreased, and since it was already low before, it practically reached the absolute minimums of the current cycle, and perhaps even of the previous cycle.

实际上，在周末，BTC在加密货币交易所上的销售压力减少了，由于它已经很低，因此实际上达到了当前周期的绝对最小值，甚至可能是上一个周期的绝对最小值。

The future scenario changes after today’s Bitcoin price increase

今天的比特币价格上涨后，未来的情况会发生变化

In theory, today should mark the end of the short period of slightly higher volatility, and from tomorrow, we might enter a phase of sluggish lateral movement that could continue until the end of April.

从理论上讲，今天应该标志着稍高的波动性的短期结束，从明天开始，我们可能会进入横向运动缓慢的阶段，该阶段可能会持续到4月底。

That said, any significant events could alter this picture, also because with such low buying and selling pressures, it takes little to change it.

也就是说，任何重大事件都可能改变这张图片，也因为买卖压力如此低，几乎不需要改变它。

To tell the truth, much seems to depend on the US stock markets, which may have completed the correction due to fears about the consequences of Trump’s tariffs, and are in feverish anticipation of understanding what will happen from April 2nd.

说实话，似乎很大程度上取决于美国股票市场，这可能已经完成了对特朗普关税后果的担忧，并且对了解4月2日将会发生的情况充满热情。

The key date at this moment seems to be precisely that one, namely the date from which the bulk of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump should come into effect.

目前的关键日期似乎正是一个，即唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）征收的大部分关税的日期。

There is still strong uncertainty regarding the reaction of the markets to the events scheduled for April 2nd, also because no one really knows how they will end up.

市场对计划于4月2日举行的事件的反应仍然存在很大的不确定性，这也是因为没有人真正知道它们将如何结束。

The main doubt lies in the fact that Trump might also use tariffs primarily as a negotiating tool to obtain other things, and therefore in the end he might not impose them, or impose them only partially.

主要疑问是特朗普还可能主要将关税用作获取其他事物的谈判工具，因此最终他可能不会强加于他们，或者仅部分强加了它们。

The medium-term forecasts

中期预测

Starting from the first half of April, the picture should be clearer, and it will be possible to start making forecasts about the evolution in the coming months.

从4月上半年开始，图片应该更清晰，可以开始对未来几个月的演变进行预测。

In recent days, for example, the hypothesis is gaining ground that the markets could restart from the end of April, although often in periods like this the interlocutory phase lasts until June.

例如，在最近几天，该假设越来越基础，即市场可以从4月底重新启动，尽管通常在这样的时期持续到6月。

For Bitcoin, the probabilities that the price could end up collapsing significantly below $75,000 are decreasing more and more, and it is not at all to be excluded that this figure could be approached in relatively short times.

对于比特币而言，价格最终可能会显着崩溃75,000美元的概率越来越下降，并且根本不排除该数字可以在相对较短的时间内接近这个数字。

However, the hypothesis that after June the market could restart is widely shared, even if not by everyone, so much so that the price of Bitcoin might also have the chance to reach new highs by the end of the year.

但是，即使不是每个人，也可以广泛共享市场之后的市场，即使不是每个人都可以重新分享，以至于比特币的价格也可能有机会在年底之前达到新的高点。