今天，2025年3月24日，預計在加密貨幣市場上預計波動率是如此，因此，比特幣的價格略有上漲。

上升仍然非常有限，這很有趣，因為它發生在事情可能朝著完全相反的方向發展的時候。

Today, March 24, volatility was expected in the crypto markets, and so it was, so much so that the price of Bitcoin slightly increased.

今天，3月24日，預計加密貨幣市場的波動性是如此之大，以至於比特幣的價格略有上漲。

This rise is still very limited, but it is interesting because it occurred at a time when things could have gone in the exact opposite direction.

這種上升仍然非常有限，但是很有趣，因為它發生在事情可能朝著完全相反的方向發展的時候。

The small turn of Friday

星期五的小轉彎

Friday the 21st, there were several signals indicating the possibility of a further decline in the markets.

21日星期五，有幾個信號表明市場可能進一步下降。

At this moment, everything depends on the US stock markets, under strong stress due to the negative consequences of Trump’s foreign trade policies.

目前，由於特朗普的外交政策的負面影響，一切都取決於美國股票市場。

Taking as a reference the S&P500 index, the most representative of the US markets, the decline had actually started on February 20, and it had a relative low eleven days ago, on March 13.

作為參考，美國市場中最具代表性的標準普爾指數，實際上是在2月20日開始的，並且在3月13日的11天前相對低。

Since then, the decline seems to have stopped, at least temporarily, but on Friday a possible resumption of the bear phase was expected.

從那時起，至少暫時停止了下降，但是在星期五，預計熊階段可能會恢復。

However, despite various negative signals, this decline has not restarted.

但是，儘管有各種負面信號，但這種下降尚未重新啟動。

In fact, after the rebound on March 14, it seems that a phase of lateralization has begun, still ongoing although still too short to be defined as a trend.

實際上，在3月14日的反彈之後，似乎已經開始了一個橫向化階段，儘管仍然太短而無法定義為趨勢。

This is a lateralization below the levels of March 7, which is the last positive day before the drop that led to the relative low of the 13th.

這是低於3月7日的水平，這是導致13日相對低點的下降前一天的最後一天。

So the declining phase actually stopped on March 14, but until Friday the risk of its resumption still seemed high. Instead, after Friday’s performance, the situation has calmed down.

因此，下降的階段實際上在3月14日停止，但直到星期五，其恢復的風險似乎仍然很高。相反，在周五的表現之後，情況已經平靜下來。

The price of Bitcoin over the weekend until today’s rebound

週末直到今天反彈的比特幣價格

On the weekend, traditional stock exchanges are closed.

週末，傳統的證券交易所已關閉。

On Friday, the price of Bitcoin hardly moved, meaning it held steady just like the US stock markets. It also did not move on Saturday.

星期五，比特幣的價格幾乎沒有動搖，這意味著它像美國股市一樣保持穩定。它也沒有在星期六移動。

However, already yesterday, probably in anticipation of today’s volatility, the crypto markets seemed to want to anticipate the events, and the price of BTC slightly rose from $83,800 to above $85,000.

但是，昨天，可能是由於今天的波動性，加密貨幣市場似乎想預料到這些事件，而BTC的價格略有從83,800美元上漲到85,000美元以上。

During the night, the increase in volatility brought it back above $87,000, and it might not be over yet, as the US stock markets have yet to reopen.

在夜間，波動率的增加使它恢復了87,000美元以上，而且可能還沒有結束，因為美國股票市場尚未重新開放。

Since it cannot have been the traditional markets influencing the price of Bitcoin over the weekend, the reason must be sought in the crypto markets.

由於不可能是在周末影響比特幣價格的傳統市場，因此必須在加密市場中尋求原因。

In fact, over the weekend the selling pressure of BTC on crypto exchanges decreased, and since it was already low before, it practically reached the absolute minimums of the current cycle, and perhaps even of the previous cycle.

實際上，在周末，BTC在加密貨幣交易所上的銷售壓力減少了，由於它已經很低，因此實際上達到了當前週期的絕對最小值，甚至可能是上一個週期的絕對最小值。

The future scenario changes after today’s Bitcoin price increase

今天的比特幣價格上漲後，未來的情況會發生變化

In theory, today should mark the end of the short period of slightly higher volatility, and from tomorrow, we might enter a phase of sluggish lateral movement that could continue until the end of April.

從理論上講，今天應該標誌著稍高的波動性的短期結束，從明天開始，我們可能會進入橫向運動緩慢的階段，該階段可能會持續到4月底。

That said, any significant events could alter this picture, also because with such low buying and selling pressures, it takes little to change it.

也就是說，任何重大事件都可能改變這張圖片，也因為買賣壓力如此低，幾乎不需要改變它。

To tell the truth, much seems to depend on the US stock markets, which may have completed the correction due to fears about the consequences of Trump’s tariffs, and are in feverish anticipation of understanding what will happen from April 2nd.

說實話，似乎很大程度上取決於美國股票市場，這可能已經完成了對特朗普關稅後果的擔憂，並且對了解4月2日將會發生的情況充滿熱情。

The key date at this moment seems to be precisely that one, namely the date from which the bulk of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump should come into effect.

目前的關鍵日期似乎正是一個，即唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）徵收的大部分關稅的日期。

There is still strong uncertainty regarding the reaction of the markets to the events scheduled for April 2nd, also because no one really knows how they will end up.

市場對計劃於4月2日舉行的事件的反應仍然存在很大的不確定性，這也是因為沒有人真正知道它們將如何結束。

The main doubt lies in the fact that Trump might also use tariffs primarily as a negotiating tool to obtain other things, and therefore in the end he might not impose them, or impose them only partially.

主要疑問是特朗普還可能主要將關稅用作獲取其他事物的談判工具，因此最終他可能不會強加於他們，或者僅部分強加了它們。

The medium-term forecasts

中期預測

Starting from the first half of April, the picture should be clearer, and it will be possible to start making forecasts about the evolution in the coming months.

從4月上半年開始，圖片應該更清晰，可以開始對未來幾個月的演變進行預測。

In recent days, for example, the hypothesis is gaining ground that the markets could restart from the end of April, although often in periods like this the interlocutory phase lasts until June.

例如，在最近幾天，該假設越來越基礎，即市場可以從4月底重新啟動，儘管通常在這樣的時期持續到6月。

For Bitcoin, the probabilities that the price could end up collapsing significantly below $75,000 are decreasing more and more, and it is not at all to be excluded that this figure could be approached in relatively short times.

對於比特幣而言，價格最終可能會顯著崩潰75,000美元的概率越來越下降，並且根本不排除該數字可以在相對較短的時間內接近這個數字。

However, the hypothesis that after June the market could restart is widely shared, even if not by everyone, so much so that the price of Bitcoin might also have the chance to reach new highs by the end of the year.

但是，即使不是每個人，也可以廣泛共享市場之後的市場，即使不是每個人都可以重新分享，以至於比特幣的價格也可能有機會在年底之前達到新的高點。