M2货币供应：比特币激增的关键因素？

分析师正在密切关注全球M2货币供应，该货币供应量衡量了金融流动性，包括现金，存款和近货币资产。

Bitcoin price analysis: Is a key economic factor fueling BTC's recent surge?

比特币价格分析：是助长BTC最近激增的关键经济因素吗？

Bitcoin price has surged to $92,000, rallying nearly 5% in the past 24 hours as excitement builds around Donald Trump’s upcoming crypto summit at the White House.

比特币的价格已飙升至92,000美元，在过去的24小时内涨幅近5％，因为唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）即将在白宫举行的加密货币峰会周围兴奋。

This sudden rally pushed BTC to a high of $92,760 from a low of $87,500 before stabilizing near $91,500. But something bigger may be at play.

这次突然的集会使BTC从87,500美元的低点升至92,760美元，然后稳定接近$ 91,500。但是更大的事情可能正在发挥作用。

Analysts believe a key economic factor, the global M2 money supply, could be fueling Bitcoin's surge. If history repeats itself, we may be on the verge of a major bull run.

分析师认为，全球M2货币供应的一个关键经济因素可能会助长比特币的激增。如果历史重演，我们可能正处于大型公牛奔跑的边缘。

Let’s break it down.

让我们分解。

M2 Money Supply: A Key Factor Behind Bitcoin's Surge?

M2货币供应：比特币激增的关键因素？

Analysts are keeping a close eye on the global M2 money supply, which measures financial liquidity, including cash, deposits, and near-money assets.

分析师密切关注全球M2货币供应，该货币供应量，包括现金，存款和近货币资产。

Historically, Bitcoin's price has moved in sync with M2 expansion, as higher liquidity drives demand for alternative assets like crypto.

从历史上看，比特币的价格与M2扩展同步，因为更高的流动性驱动了对加密货币等替代资产的需求。

Since late 2024, global M2 has been rising sharply, leading experts to predict a major Bitcoin rally from late March to mid-May 2025.

自2024年底以来，全球M2一直在急剧上升，领导专家预测从3月下旬至5月中旬至2025年中期进行的主要比特币集会。

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto pointed out a significant rise in global M2, calling it a "vertical line" on the charts—an indicator of a potential surge in asset prices. He expects the rally for Bitcoin, stocks, and the broader crypto market to begin on March 25 and last until May 14.

加密分析师Colin Thalks Crypto指出，全球M2的大幅上升，称其为图表上的“垂直线”，这是资产价格潜在增加的指标。他预计比特币，股票和更广泛的加密货币市场的集会将于3月25日开始，持续到5月14日。

A Strong Historical Connection

牢固的历史联系

Bitcoin has closely followed M2 trends in past market cycles. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp rise in M2 coincided with one of Bitcoin's strongest bull runs, as governments pumped money into the economy. Investors bought Bitcoin to protect their wealth from inflation.

在过去的市场周期中，比特币紧随M2趋势。在Covid-19的大流行期间，M2的急剧上升与比特币最强的公牛奔跑之一相吻合，因为政府将资金投入了经济。投资者购买了比特币，以保护其财富免受通货膨胀的侵害。

On the other hand, when M2 growth slows or declines, Bitcoin tends to struggle due to reduced liquidity for high-risk investments.

另一方面，当M2增长速度减慢或下降时，由于高风险投资的流动性降低，比特币往往会挣扎。

What Experts Are Saying

专家在说什么

Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, believes that global M2 movements have a direct impact on Bitcoin. He says that when M2 declines, Bitcoin and the crypto market tend to follow about ten weeks later. Despite possible short-term dips, he sees this cycle setting the stage for long-term growth.

黑天鹅资本家的联合创始人范德尔（Vandell）认为，全球M2运动对比特币有直接影响。他说，当M2下降时，比特币和加密货币市场往往会在十个星期后跟随。尽管可能短期下降，但他认为这个周期为长期增长奠定了基础。

Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, sees M2 expansion as a key factor for an early market recovery. He says that with inflation slowing, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, financial conditions are becoming more favorable for Bitcoin and altcoins.

同时，著名的加密分析师MichaëlVande Poppe将M2扩展视为早期市场恢复的关键因素。他说，随着通货膨胀率放缓，对美国美联储降低利率的期望以及美元削弱，财务状况变得对比特币和山寨币越来越有利。

Historical Patterns and 2025 Projections

历史模式和2025年预测

Economist Tomas compared the current market setup to previous bull cycles in 2017 and 2020, when rising M2 levels aligned with Bitcoin's strongest years. He suggests that 2025 could follow a similar pattern, depending on how much the U.S. dollar weakens.

经济学家托马斯（Tomas）将当前的市场设置与2017年和2020年的牛市周期进行了比较，当时M2水平与比特币最强的岁月一致。他建议2025可以遵循类似的模式，具体取决于美元削弱的程度。

Macro researcher Yimin Xu predicts that the Federal Reserve may soon end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and could even shift to Quantitative Easing (QE) if economic conditions require it. This would inject more liquidity into financial markets, strengthening Bitcoin's bullish outlook.

宏观研究人员Yimin XU预测，美联储可能很快就会结束其定量收紧（QT）政策，甚至可能会转移到经济条件需要的情况下，甚至可以转移到定量宽松（QE）。这将向金融市场注入更多的流动性，从而增强了比特币的看涨前景。

Bitcoin on the Verge of Another Breakout?

比特币在另一个突破的边缘？

With rising liquidity, shifting Federal Reserve policies, and a possible political shift in the U.S., analysts believe that Bitcoin could be on the verge of another major rally. March could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase, making it a crucial period for investors closely watching the crypto market.

随着流动性的增加，美联储政策的转移以及美国可能发生的政治转变，分析师认为比特币可能处于另一个主要集会的边缘。 3月可以标志着新的看涨阶段的开始，这对于密切关注加密货币市场的投资者来说，这是至关重要的时期。

With history as a guide, all signs point to Bitcoin entering a defining moment in its price cycle.

以历史为指导，所有迹象都表明比特币在其价格周期中进入定义时刻。