M2貨幣供應：比特幣激增的關鍵因素？

分析師正在密切關注全球M2貨幣供應，該貨幣供應量衡量了金融流動性，包括現金，存款和近貨幣資產。

Bitcoin price analysis: Is a key economic factor fueling BTC's recent surge?

比特幣價格分析：是助長BTC最近激增的關鍵經濟因素嗎？

Bitcoin price has surged to $92,000, rallying nearly 5% in the past 24 hours as excitement builds around Donald Trump’s upcoming crypto summit at the White House.

比特幣的價格已飆升至92,000美元，在過去的24小時內漲幅近5％，因為唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）即將在白宮舉行的加密貨幣峰會周圍興奮。

This sudden rally pushed BTC to a high of $92,760 from a low of $87,500 before stabilizing near $91,500. But something bigger may be at play.

這次突然的集會使BTC從87,500美元的低點升至92,760美元，然後穩定接近$ 91,500。但是更大的事情可能正在發揮作用。

Analysts believe a key economic factor, the global M2 money supply, could be fueling Bitcoin's surge. If history repeats itself, we may be on the verge of a major bull run.

分析師認為，全球M2貨幣供應的一個關鍵經濟因素可能會助長比特幣的激增。如果歷史重演，我們可能正處於大型公牛奔跑的邊緣。

Let’s break it down.

讓我們分解。

M2 Money Supply: A Key Factor Behind Bitcoin's Surge?

M2貨幣供應：比特幣激增的關鍵因素？

Analysts are keeping a close eye on the global M2 money supply, which measures financial liquidity, including cash, deposits, and near-money assets.

分析師密切關注全球M2貨幣供應，該貨幣供應量，包括現金，存款和近貨幣資產。

Historically, Bitcoin's price has moved in sync with M2 expansion, as higher liquidity drives demand for alternative assets like crypto.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格與M2擴展同步，因為更高的流動性驅動了對加密貨幣等替代資產的需求。

Since late 2024, global M2 has been rising sharply, leading experts to predict a major Bitcoin rally from late March to mid-May 2025.

自2024年底以來，全球M2一直在急劇上升，領導專家預測從3月下旬至5月中旬至2025年中期進行的主要比特幣集會。

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto pointed out a significant rise in global M2, calling it a "vertical line" on the charts—an indicator of a potential surge in asset prices. He expects the rally for Bitcoin, stocks, and the broader crypto market to begin on March 25 and last until May 14.

加密分析師Colin Thalks Crypto指出，全球M2的大幅上升，稱其為圖表上的“垂直線”，這是資產價格潛在增加的指標。他預計比特幣，股票和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的集會將於3月25日開始，持續到5月14日。

A Strong Historical Connection

牢固的歷史聯繫

Bitcoin has closely followed M2 trends in past market cycles. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp rise in M2 coincided with one of Bitcoin's strongest bull runs, as governments pumped money into the economy. Investors bought Bitcoin to protect their wealth from inflation.

在過去的市場週期中，比特幣緊隨M2趨勢。在Covid-19的大流行期間，M2的急劇上升與比特幣最強的公牛奔跑之一相吻合，因為政府將資金投入了經濟。投資者購買了比特幣，以保護其財富免受通貨膨脹的侵害。

On the other hand, when M2 growth slows or declines, Bitcoin tends to struggle due to reduced liquidity for high-risk investments.

另一方面，當M2增長速度減慢或下降時，由於高風險投資的流動性降低，比特幣往往會掙扎。

What Experts Are Saying

專家在說什麼

Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, believes that global M2 movements have a direct impact on Bitcoin. He says that when M2 declines, Bitcoin and the crypto market tend to follow about ten weeks later. Despite possible short-term dips, he sees this cycle setting the stage for long-term growth.

黑天鵝資本家的聯合創始人范德爾（Vandell）認為，全球M2運動對比特幣有直接影響。他說，當M2下降時，比特幣和加密貨幣市場往往會在十個星期後跟隨。儘管可能短期下降，但他認為這個週期為長期增長奠定了基礎。

Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, sees M2 expansion as a key factor for an early market recovery. He says that with inflation slowing, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, financial conditions are becoming more favorable for Bitcoin and altcoins.

同時，著名的加密分析師MichaëlVande Poppe將M2擴展視為早期市場恢復的關鍵因素。他說，隨著通貨膨脹率放緩，對美國美聯儲降低利率的期望以及美元削弱，財務狀況變得對比特幣和山寨幣越來越有利。

Historical Patterns and 2025 Projections

歷史模式和2025年預測

Economist Tomas compared the current market setup to previous bull cycles in 2017 and 2020, when rising M2 levels aligned with Bitcoin's strongest years. He suggests that 2025 could follow a similar pattern, depending on how much the U.S. dollar weakens.

經濟學家托馬斯（Tomas）將當前的市場設置與2017年和2020年的牛市週期進行了比較，當時M2水平與比特幣最強的歲月一致。他建議2025可以遵循類似的模式，具體取決於美元削弱的程度。

Macro researcher Yimin Xu predicts that the Federal Reserve may soon end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and could even shift to Quantitative Easing (QE) if economic conditions require it. This would inject more liquidity into financial markets, strengthening Bitcoin's bullish outlook.

宏觀研究人員Yimin XU預測，美聯儲可能很快就會結束其定量收緊（QT）政策，甚至可能會轉移到經濟條件需要的情況下，甚至可以轉移到定量寬鬆（QE）。這將向金融市場注入更多的流動性，從而增強了比特幣的看漲前景。

Bitcoin on the Verge of Another Breakout?

比特幣在另一個突破的邊緣？

With rising liquidity, shifting Federal Reserve policies, and a possible political shift in the U.S., analysts believe that Bitcoin could be on the verge of another major rally. March could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase, making it a crucial period for investors closely watching the crypto market.

隨著流動性的增加，美聯儲政策的轉移以及美國可能發生的政治轉變，分析師認為比特幣可能處於另一個主要集會的邊緣。 3月可以標誌著新的看漲階段的開始，這對於密切關注加密貨幣市場的投資者來說，這是至關重要的時期。

With history as a guide, all signs point to Bitcoin entering a defining moment in its price cycle.

以歷史為指導，所有跡像都表明比特幣在其價格週期中進入定義時刻。