CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，比特币公牛周期已正式结束

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju认为，比特币公牛周期已正式结束。比特币投资者可以期望一段看跌或稳定的价格

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says he thinks the Bitcoin bull cycle has now come to an end.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju说，他认为比特币公牛周期现在已经结束了。

In a recent analysis, Ju predicts that Bitcoin investors can expect a period of bearish or stable price movements for the next six months to twelve months.

在最近的分析中，JU预测，比特币投资者可以期望接下来的六个月至十二个月的看跌或稳定的价格变动。

The analyst says that the key factor driving his prediction is the withdrawal of fresh liquidity, leading to a scenario where whale investors sell their Bitcoin holdings at decreasing prices. To validate his analytical findings, Ju performs principal component analysis (PCA) on different on-chain metrics.

分析师说，推动其预测的关键因素是撤离新的流动性，导致鲸鱼投资者以降低的价格出售其比特币持有量的情况。为了验证他的分析结果，JU对不同的链度指标进行主成分分析（PCA）。

3 Key Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators

3个关键比特币链指标

3个关键比特币链指标

Three key on-chain indicators are used to assess Bitcoin market behavior. These are MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). A 365-day moving average is applied to track any significant changes in Bitcoin price movements.

三个关键的链链指标用于评估比特币市场行为。这些是MVRV（已实现价值的市场价值），SOPR（支出的产出利润率）和NUPL（净未实现的利润/损失）。使用365天的移动平均线来跟踪比特币价格变动的任何重大变化。

From the analysis of this market data, a bearish trend is evident and beginning to take over the market.

从对该市场数据的分析中，看跌趋势是显而易见的，并且开始占领市场。

However, Ju remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects despite his bearish market outlook in the short term.

但是，尽管短期内看跌了市场的前景，JU仍然对比特币的长期前景保持乐观。

Why Is Ju Bearish on Bitcoin?

为什么JU BIREIS在比特币上？

为什么JU BIREIS在比特币上？

According to Ju, several factors contribute to his negative market prediction. The indicators based on realized capital highlight that new investment flows are diminishing.

根据JU的说法，几个因素导致了他的负面市场预测。基于实现资本的指标强调，新的投资流正在减少。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s ability to keep ascending is coming to a halt, and trading volume reached high levels, which is now decreasing. In the past three weeks alone, the market has recorded negative exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.

此外，比特币保持上升的能力正在停止，交易量达到了高水平，现在正在减少。仅在过去的三个星期中，市场就记录了负面交易的基金（ETF）流入。

This accumulation of evidence demonstrates that market buying power is diminishing at present.

这种证据的积累表明目前市场购买力正在减少。

Despite not expecting price decreases, Ju continues to be a Bitcoin holder. He maintains his support for Bitcoin and its enduring value.

尽管没有预期价格下降，但JU仍然是比特币持有人。他维持对比特币及其持久价值的支持。

However, the bearish market indicators are forcing him to acknowledge their presence, even as he retains his Bitcoin ownership.

但是，看跌市场的指标迫使他承认他们的存在，即使他保留了比特币所有权。

As Ju predicts difficulties for Bitcoin in the upcoming months, his analytical data clashes with the continued optimism of some market participants.

正如JU预测了在接下来的几个月中比特币的困难一样，他的分析数据与某些市场参与者的持续乐观态度发生了冲突。

Those interested can follow along with Ju’s analysis on CryptoQuant.com. Market participants are keenly observing for any signs that could herald a return of bullish momentum.

那些有兴趣的人可以跟随JU在Cryptoquant.com上的分析。市场参与者敏锐地观察到可以预示看涨势头的任何迹象。