CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju認為，比特幣公牛週期已正式結束

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju認為，比特幣公牛週期已正式結束。比特幣投資者可以期望一段看跌或穩定的價格

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says he thinks the Bitcoin bull cycle has now come to an end.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju說，他認為比特幣公牛週期現在已經結束了。

In a recent analysis, Ju predicts that Bitcoin investors can expect a period of bearish or stable price movements for the next six months to twelve months.

在最近的分析中，JU預測，比特幣投資者可以期望接下來的六個月至十二個月的看跌或穩定的價格變動。

The analyst says that the key factor driving his prediction is the withdrawal of fresh liquidity, leading to a scenario where whale investors sell their Bitcoin holdings at decreasing prices. To validate his analytical findings, Ju performs principal component analysis (PCA) on different on-chain metrics.

分析師說，推動其預測的關鍵因素是撤離新的流動性，導致鯨魚投資者以降低的價格出售其比特幣持有量的情況。為了驗證他的分析結果，JU對不同的鏈度指標進行主成分分析（PCA）。

3 Key Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators

3個關鍵比特幣鏈指標

3個關鍵比特幣鏈指標

Three key on-chain indicators are used to assess Bitcoin market behavior. These are MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). A 365-day moving average is applied to track any significant changes in Bitcoin price movements.

三個關鍵的鍊鍊指標用於評估比特幣市場行為。這些是MVRV（已實現價值的市場價值），SOPR（支出的產出利潤率）和NUPL（淨未實現的利潤/損失）。使用365天的移動平均線來跟踪比特幣價格變動的任何重大變化。

From the analysis of this market data, a bearish trend is evident and beginning to take over the market.

從對該市場數據的分析中，看跌趨勢是顯而易見的，並且開始佔領市場。

However, Ju remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects despite his bearish market outlook in the short term.

但是，儘管短期內看跌了市場的前景，JU仍然對比特幣的長期前景保持樂觀。

Why Is Ju Bearish on Bitcoin?

為什麼JU BIREIS在比特幣上？

為什麼JU BIREIS在比特幣上？

According to Ju, several factors contribute to his negative market prediction. The indicators based on realized capital highlight that new investment flows are diminishing.

根據JU的說法，幾個因素導致了他的負面市場預測。基於實現資本的指標強調，新的投資流正在減少。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s ability to keep ascending is coming to a halt, and trading volume reached high levels, which is now decreasing. In the past three weeks alone, the market has recorded negative exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.

此外，比特幣保持上升的能力正在停止，交易量達到了高水平，現在正在減少。僅在過去的三個星期中，市場就記錄了負面交易的基金（ETF）流入。

This accumulation of evidence demonstrates that market buying power is diminishing at present.

這種證據的積累表明目前市場購買力正在減少。

Despite not expecting price decreases, Ju continues to be a Bitcoin holder. He maintains his support for Bitcoin and its enduring value.

儘管沒有預期價格下降，但JU仍然是比特幣持有人。他維持對比特幣及其持久價值的支持。

However, the bearish market indicators are forcing him to acknowledge their presence, even as he retains his Bitcoin ownership.

但是，看跌市場的指標迫使他承認他們的存在，即使他保留了比特幣所有權。

As Ju predicts difficulties for Bitcoin in the upcoming months, his analytical data clashes with the continued optimism of some market participants.

正如JU預測了在接下來的幾個月中比特幣的困難一樣，他的分析數據與某些市場參與者的持續樂觀態度發生了衝突。

Those interested can follow along with Ju’s analysis on CryptoQuant.com. Market participants are keenly observing for any signs that could herald a return of bullish momentum.

那些有興趣的人可以跟隨JU在Cryptoquant.com上的分析。市場參與者敏銳地觀察到可以預示看漲勢頭的任何跡象。