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比特币(BTC 1.81%)是近年来表现最好的资产之一。在过去的十年里,这种领先的数字货币飞速发展
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been one of the best performing assets of all time. Over the past decade, the leading digital currency has risen about 185-fold. Today, it carries a market cap of $1.2 trillion, which rivals some of the world's most valuable companies.
比特币(加密货币:BTC)一直是有史以来表现最好的资产之一。过去十年,领先的数字货币上涨了约 185 倍。如今,它的市值已达 1.2 万亿美元,可与世界上一些最有价值的公司相媲美。
With the cryptocurrency now trading 18% off its record high, you might be ready to buy the dip. But before you do, take the time to understand these five key risks first.
由于该加密货币目前的交易价格比历史高点低 18%,您可能已经准备好逢低买入。但在此之前,请先花时间了解这五个主要风险。
1. Government intervention Perhaps the most obvious risk is that the U.S., the world's most dominant economy, follows China's footsteps and completely bans Bitcoin within its borders, making it illegal to trade and mine it. Because it provides an entirely new alternative to the government's power over the money supply, the cryptocurrency is a direct competitor to the Federal Reserve.
1.政府干预 也许最明显的风险是,世界上最具主导地位的经济体美国追随中国的脚步,在其境内全面禁止比特币,使其交易和开采成为非法。由于加密货币为政府控制货币供应的权力提供了全新的替代方案,因此它是美联储的直接竞争对手。
Another adverse action governments could take is via taxation. In an effort to make Bitcoin a less desirable asset to buy and hold, the Internal Revenue Service might raise the capital gains tax on it, which could suppress demand from investors.
政府可以采取的另一项不利行动是通过税收。为了使比特币成为不太理想的购买和持有资产,美国国税局可能会提高对其的资本利得税,这可能会抑制投资者的需求。
As time passes, though, this risk becomes less of a concern. We've already seen the cryptocurrency receive support on the political front. And it has infiltrated Wall Street, with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
但随着时间的推移,这种风险不再那么令人担忧。我们已经看到加密货币在政治方面得到了支持。随着现货比特币 ETF 的批准,它已经渗透到华尔街。
2. Technical issues When compared to other top cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Cardano, or Solana, for example, Bitcoin's software is simple and basic. There isn't a complex upgrade timeline that needs to be executed and implemented flawlessly for it to succeed. But this is purely by design.
2. 技术问题 与以太坊、Cardano 或 Solana 等其他顶级加密货币相比,比特币的软件简单且基础。没有复杂的升级时间表需要完美地执行和实施才能成功。但这纯粹是设计使然。
However, its developer community has introduced updates in the past when needed. And this will likely be the case in the future. The risk here is that altering the software could create a technical glitch that causes problems with the cryptocurrency's performance.
然而,其开发者社区过去曾在需要时推出过更新。未来很可能也是如此。这里的风险是,更改软件可能会造成技术故障,从而导致加密货币的性能出现问题。
3. Quantum computing At a high level, quantum computers can handle complicated problems a lot faster than regular computers. This introduces another technical risk.
3. 量子计算 在高水平上,量子计算机可以比普通计算机更快地处理复杂问题。这引入了另一个技术风险。
If the field of quantum computing advances far enough, then some fear that it could break Bitcoin's cryptography, exposing everyone's private keys. In this dark scenario, its security would be undermined, which could cause its price to fall precipitously.
如果量子计算领域发展得足够远,那么一些人担心它可能会破坏比特币的密码学,暴露每个人的私钥。在这种黑暗的情况下,其安全性将受到损害,这可能会导致其价格急剧下跌。
Bitcoin wouldn't be the only victim, however, as other highly protected institutions, like banks or government agencies, would also be prone to similar hacking. For what it's worth, Bitcoin already has some defenses against quantum computing, and I'm sure the digital coin's developers have long been thinking about further protection against this risk.
然而,比特币并不是唯一的受害者,因为其他受到高度保护的机构,如银行或政府机构,也很容易遭受类似的黑客攻击。就其价值而言,比特币已经具备了一些针对量子计算的防御措施,而且我确信数字货币的开发人员长期以来一直在考虑进一步防范这种风险。
4. Scaling up Bitcoin handles less than seven transactions per second (TPS) currently. That falls way short of payments giant Visa, which can process 65,000 TPS. The bears will say (voicing a concern that is justified) that Bitcoin will never be able to scale up in order to boost its throughput.
4. 扩容比特币目前每秒处理的交易量 (TPS) 不足 7 笔。这远远低于支付巨头 Visa 的处理能力,后者的处理速度为 65,000 TPS。看空者会说(表达了合理的担忧)比特币永远无法扩大规模以提高其吞吐量。
The cryptocurrency was invented with security and decentralization as its top priorities. Consequently, it might never be able to process a greater number of transactions. The layer-2 Lightning Network is being developed, but its success is not guaranteed. This just means that Bitcoin's ultimate use could only be as a store of value, not a medium of exchange.
加密货币的发明以安全性和去中心化为首要任务。因此,它可能永远无法处理更多数量的交易。第二层闪电网络正在开发中,但并不能保证其成功。这只是意味着比特币的最终用途只能是作为价值储存手段,而不是交换媒介。
5. Volatility Although Bitcoin has crushed the stock market since its launch about 15 years ago, the journey has been anything but smooth. It has registered multiple drawdowns of more than 50%, which can be stomach-churning for even the most mentally strong investors.
5. 波动性 尽管比特币自大约 15 年前推出以来一直碾压股市,但这一历程却并非一帆风顺。它已多次出现超过 50% 的回撤,即使对于精神最坚强的投资者来说,这也会令人反胃。
To be fair, the volatility has decreased as this cryptocurrency has matured. But maybe it will always bounce around like a growth tech stock. This can discourage the late adopters from fully embracing Bitcoin, capping its ultimate price potential.
公平地说,随着这种加密货币的成熟,波动性已经下降。但也许它总是会像成长型科技股一样反弹。这可能会阻止后来的采用者完全接受比特币,从而限制其最终的价格潜力。
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