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比特幣(BTC 1.81%)是近年來表現最好的資產之一。在過去的十年裡,這種領先的數位貨幣快速發展
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been one of the best performing assets of all time. Over the past decade, the leading digital currency has risen about 185-fold. Today, it carries a market cap of $1.2 trillion, which rivals some of the world's most valuable companies.
比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)一直是有史以來表現最好的資產之一。過去十年,領先的數位貨幣上漲了約 185 倍。如今,它的市值已達 1.2 兆美元,可與世界上一些最有價值的公司相媲美。
With the cryptocurrency now trading 18% off its record high, you might be ready to buy the dip. But before you do, take the time to understand these five key risks first.
目前該加密貨幣的交易價格較歷史高點低 18%,您可能準備逢低買入。但在此之前,請先花時間了解這五個主要風險。
1. Government intervention Perhaps the most obvious risk is that the U.S., the world's most dominant economy, follows China's footsteps and completely bans Bitcoin within its borders, making it illegal to trade and mine it. Because it provides an entirely new alternative to the government's power over the money supply, the cryptocurrency is a direct competitor to the Federal Reserve.
1.政府乾預 也許最明顯的風險是,世界上最具主導地位的經濟體美國追隨中國的腳步,在其境內全面禁止比特幣,使其交易和開採成為非法。由於加密貨幣為政府控制貨幣供應的權力提供了全新的替代方案,因此它是聯準會的直接競爭對手。
Another adverse action governments could take is via taxation. In an effort to make Bitcoin a less desirable asset to buy and hold, the Internal Revenue Service might raise the capital gains tax on it, which could suppress demand from investors.
政府可以採取的另一項不利行動是透過稅收。為了使比特幣成為不太理想的購買和持有資產,美國國稅局可能會提高對其的資本利得稅,這可能會抑制投資者的需求。
As time passes, though, this risk becomes less of a concern. We've already seen the cryptocurrency receive support on the political front. And it has infiltrated Wall Street, with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
但隨著時間的推移,這種風險不再那麼令人擔憂。我們已經看到加密貨幣在政治方面得到了支持。隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准,它已經滲透到華爾街。
2. Technical issues When compared to other top cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Cardano, or Solana, for example, Bitcoin's software is simple and basic. There isn't a complex upgrade timeline that needs to be executed and implemented flawlessly for it to succeed. But this is purely by design.
2. 技術問題 與其他頂級加密貨幣如以太坊、Cardano 或 Solana 相比,比特幣的軟體簡單且基本。沒有複雜的升級時間表需要完美地執行和實施才能成功。但這純粹是設計使然。
However, its developer community has introduced updates in the past when needed. And this will likely be the case in the future. The risk here is that altering the software could create a technical glitch that causes problems with the cryptocurrency's performance.
然而,其開發者社群過去曾在需要時推出更新。未來很可能也是如此。這裡的風險是,更改軟體可能會造成技術故障,從而導致加密貨幣的效能出現問題。
3. Quantum computing At a high level, quantum computers can handle complicated problems a lot faster than regular computers. This introduces another technical risk.
3. 量子計算 在高水準上,量子計算機可以比普通計算機更快處理複雜問題。這引入了另一個技術風險。
If the field of quantum computing advances far enough, then some fear that it could break Bitcoin's cryptography, exposing everyone's private keys. In this dark scenario, its security would be undermined, which could cause its price to fall precipitously.
如果量子運算領域發展得足夠遠,那麼有些人擔心它可能會破壞比特幣的密碼學,並暴露每個人的私鑰。在這種黑暗的情況下,其安全性將受到損害,這可能會導致其價格急劇下跌。
Bitcoin wouldn't be the only victim, however, as other highly protected institutions, like banks or government agencies, would also be prone to similar hacking. For what it's worth, Bitcoin already has some defenses against quantum computing, and I'm sure the digital coin's developers have long been thinking about further protection against this risk.
然而,比特幣並不是唯一的受害者,因為其他受到高度保護的機構,如銀行或政府機構,也容易遭受類似的駭客攻擊。就其價值而言,比特幣已經具備了一些針對量子運算的防禦措施,而且我確信數位貨幣的開發人員長期以來一直在考慮進一步防範這種風險。
4. Scaling up Bitcoin handles less than seven transactions per second (TPS) currently. That falls way short of payments giant Visa, which can process 65,000 TPS. The bears will say (voicing a concern that is justified) that Bitcoin will never be able to scale up in order to boost its throughput.
4. 擴容比特幣目前每秒處理的交易量 (TPS) 少於 7 筆。這遠低於支付巨頭 Visa 的處理能力,後者的處理速度為 65,000 TPS。看空者會說(表達了合理的擔憂)比特幣永遠無法擴大規模以提高其吞吐量。
The cryptocurrency was invented with security and decentralization as its top priorities. Consequently, it might never be able to process a greater number of transactions. The layer-2 Lightning Network is being developed, but its success is not guaranteed. This just means that Bitcoin's ultimate use could only be as a store of value, not a medium of exchange.
加密貨幣的發明以安全性和去中心化為首要任務。因此,它可能永遠無法處理更多數量的交易。第二層閃電網路正在開發中,但並不能保證其成功。這只是意味著比特幣的最終用途只能是作為價值儲存手段,而不是交換媒介。
5. Volatility Although Bitcoin has crushed the stock market since its launch about 15 years ago, the journey has been anything but smooth. It has registered multiple drawdowns of more than 50%, which can be stomach-churning for even the most mentally strong investors.
5. 波動性 儘管比特幣自大約 15 年前推出以來一直碾壓股市,但這一歷程卻並非一帆風順。它已多次出現超過 50% 的回撤,即使對於精神最強大的投資者來說,這也會令人反胃。
To be fair, the volatility has decreased as this cryptocurrency has matured. But maybe it will always bounce around like a growth tech stock. This can discourage the late adopters from fully embracing Bitcoin, capping its ultimate price potential.
公平地說,隨著這種加密貨幣的成熟,波動性已經下降。但也許它總是會像成長型科技股一樣反彈。這可能會阻止後來的採用者完全接受比特幣,從而限制其最終的價格潛力。
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