4个关键指标表明比特币（BTC）校正可能已经结束

比特币（BTC）在3月11日下降到4个月的76,700美元低点，因为标准普尔500指数每周下降6％。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, following a 6% weekly decline in the S&P 500 index.

3月11日，比特币（BTC）的价格下跌至3月11日的$ 76,700的四个月低点，因为标准普尔500指数每周下降6％。

The stock market correction pushed the index to its lowest level in six months as investors priced in higher odds of a global economic downturn.

股票市场的校正将指数推向了六个月以来的最低水平，因为投资者以更高的全球经济衰退几率定价。

Despite Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,350, four key indicators suggest that the correction may be over.

尽管比特币的历史最高额为109,350美元，但有四个关键指标表明校正可能已经结束。

Bitcoin bear market needs 40% drop, strong USD

比特币熊市场需要40％的跌幅，强劲的美元

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. However, the current price action differs significantly from the November 2021 crash, which started with a 41% drop from $69,000 to $40,560 in just 60 days.

一些分析师认为，比特币已经进入了熊市。但是，目前的价格行动与2021年11月的坠机事件有很大不同，该崩溃最初从60天内从69,000美元下降到40,560美元。

A comparable scenario today would imply a decline to $64,400 by the end of March.

今天的一个可比情况意味着到3月底下降到64,400美元。

Bitcoin/USD in Nov. 2021 vs. Feb. 2025. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

比特币 /美元在2021年11月对2025年2月。来源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The current correction mirrors the 31.5% drop from $71,940 on June 7, 2024, to $49,220 over 60 days.

当前的更正反映了31.5％的下降，从2024年6月7日的71,940美元下降到60天内的$ 49,220。

Additionally, during the late 2021 bear market, the US dollar was strengthening against a basket of foreign currencies, as reflected in the DXY index, which surged from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 by December 2021.

此外，在2021年后期的熊市中，美元在DXY指数中所反映的一篮子外币正在加强，该指数从2021年9月92.4日到2021年12月的96.0飙升。

DXY (left, blue) vs. BTC/USD (right). Nov. 2021 vs. Feb. 2025. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

DXY（左，蓝色）与BTC/USD（右）。 2021年11月对2025年2月。资料来源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

This time, however, the DXY started 2025 at 109.2 and has since declined to 104. Traders argue that Bitcoin maintains an inverse correlation with the DXY index, as it is primarily viewed as a risk-on asset rather than a safe-haven hedge against dollar weakness.

然而，这次DXY于2025年开始为109.2，此后已下降到104。交易者认为，比特币与DXY指数保持逆相关性，因为它主要被视为一种风险资产，而不是避风港的对冲，而不是避风港的对冲。

Overall, current market conditions show no signs of investors moving to cash positions, which supports Bitcoin’s price.

总体而言，当前的市场状况没有表明投资者转向现金头寸的迹象，这支持比特币的价格。

BTC derivatives healthy as investors fear AI bubble

BTC导数健康，因为投资者担心AI泡沫

The Bitcoin derivatives market remains stable, as the current annualized premium on futures stands at 4.5%, despite a 19% price drop between March 2 and 11.

尽管3月2日至11日的价格下跌19％，但目前的期货年度溢价为4.5％，比特币衍生品市场仍保持稳定。

For comparison, on June 18, 2022, this indicator fell below 0% after a sharp 44% decline from $31,350 to $17,585 in just 12 days.

为了进行比较，该指标在2022年6月18日下降到0％以下，因为在短短12天内从31,350美元下降到17,585美元。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

比特币2个月期货年度溢价。资料来源：laevitas.ch

Similarly, the Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate is hovering near zero, signaling balanced leverage demand between longs and shorts. Bearish market conditions typically drive excessive demand for short positions, pushing the funding rate below zero.

同样，比特币永久期货融资率徘徊在零接近零，这表明了渴望和短裤之间的杠杆率平衡。看跌的市场状况通常会导致对短职位的过度需求，将资金率提高到零以下。

Several publicly traded companies with market values exceeding $150 billion have seen sharp declines from their all-time highs, including Tesla (-54%), Palantir (-40%), Nvidia (-34%), Blackstone (-32%), Broadcom (-29%), TSM (-26%), and ServiceNow (-25%). Investor sentiment, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, has turned bearish amid growing recession fears.

市场价值超过1500亿美元的几家公开交易的公司的历史高潮下降，包括特斯拉（-54％），Palantir（-40％），NVIDIA（-34％），Blackstone（-32％），Broadcom（-29％），TSM（-26％）（-26％）和ServiceNow（-25％）（-25％）（-25％）。投资者的情绪，尤其是在人工智能部门中，由于日益增长的衰退恐惧而变成了看跌。

Related: Bitcoin $70K retracement part of ‘macro correction’ in bull market — Analysts

相关：比特币$ 70K回撤位的“宏校正”一部分在牛市中 - 分析师

Traders are concerned about a potential US government shutdown on March 15, as lawmakers must pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling. However, according to Yahoo Finance, the Republican party remains divided.

交易者担心3月15日美国政府可能关闭的可能性，因为立法者必须通过一项法案来提高债务上限。但是，根据雅虎财务，共和党仍然分裂。

The key points of contention in House Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal are increased spending on defense and immigration.

众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）的提议中争论的关键点正在增加国防和移民的支出。

Risk-on markets, including Bitcoin, are likely to react positively if an agreement is reached.

如果达成协议达成协议，包括比特币在内的风险市场，包括比特币。

Real estate crisis is not necessarily negative

房地产危机不一定是负面的

Early signs of a real estate crisis could accelerate capital outflows into other scarce assets. According to Feb. 27 data from the US National Association of Realtors, home contract signings fell to an all-time low in January.

房地产危机的早期迹象可能会加速资本流出到其他稀缺资产中。根据2月27日美国全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，家庭合同签署在一月份的历史最低点。

Additionally, a Feb. 23 opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal revealed that over 7% of Federal Housing Administration-insured loans are at least 90 days past due, surpassing the peak of the 2008 subprime crisis.

此外，《华尔街日报》上的一篇2月23日的意见书显示，超过7％的联邦住房管理贷款至少在到期90天，超过了2008年次级危机的高峰。

In essence, Bitcoin’s path to reclaiming $90,000 is supported by a weaker US dollar, historical evidence that a 30% price correction does not signal a bear market, resilience in BTC derivatives markets, contagion from government shutdown risks, and early signs of a real estate crisis.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment

从本质上讲，比特币收回90,000美元的途径得到了较弱的美元支持，历史证据表明，30％的价格校正并不表示熊市市场，BTC衍生品市场的韧性，政府关闭风险的传染以及不应作为一般信息而不是法律的迹象。