4個關鍵指標表明比特幣（BTC）校正可能已經結束

比特幣（BTC）在3月11日下降到4個月的76,700美元低點，因為標準普爾500指數每週下降6％。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, following a 6% weekly decline in the S&P 500 index.

3月11日，比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌至3月11日的$ 76,700的四個月低點，因為標準普爾500指數每週下降6％。

The stock market correction pushed the index to its lowest level in six months as investors priced in higher odds of a global economic downturn.

股票市場的校正將指數推向了六個月以來的最低水平，因為投資者以更高的全球經濟衰退機率定價。

Despite Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,350, four key indicators suggest that the correction may be over.

儘管比特幣的歷史最高額為109,350美元，但有四個關鍵指標表明校正可能已經結束。

Bitcoin bear market needs 40% drop, strong USD

比特幣熊市場需要40％的跌幅，強勁的美元

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. However, the current price action differs significantly from the November 2021 crash, which started with a 41% drop from $69,000 to $40,560 in just 60 days.

一些分析師認為，比特幣已經進入了熊市。但是，目前的價格行動與2021年11月的墜機事件有很大不同，該崩潰最初從60天內從69,000美元下降到40,560美元。

A comparable scenario today would imply a decline to $64,400 by the end of March.

今天的一個可比情況意味著到3月底下降到64,400美元。

Bitcoin/USD in Nov. 2021 vs. Feb. 2025. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

比特幣 /美元在2021年11月對2025年2月。來源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The current correction mirrors the 31.5% drop from $71,940 on June 7, 2024, to $49,220 over 60 days.

當前的更正反映了31.5％的下降，從2024年6月7日的71,940美元下降到60天內的$ 49,220。

Additionally, during the late 2021 bear market, the US dollar was strengthening against a basket of foreign currencies, as reflected in the DXY index, which surged from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 by December 2021.

此外，在2021年後期的熊市中，美元在DXY指數中所反映的一籃子外幣正在加強，該指數從2021年9月92.4日到2021年12月的96.0飆升。

DXY (left, blue) vs. BTC/USD (right). Nov. 2021 vs. Feb. 2025. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

DXY（左，藍色）與BTC/USD（右）。 2021年11月對2025年2月。資料來源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

This time, however, the DXY started 2025 at 109.2 and has since declined to 104. Traders argue that Bitcoin maintains an inverse correlation with the DXY index, as it is primarily viewed as a risk-on asset rather than a safe-haven hedge against dollar weakness.

然而，這次DXY於2025年開始為109.2，此後已下降到104。交易者認為，比特幣與DXY指數保持逆相關性，因為它主要被視為一種風險資產，而不是避風港的對沖，而不是避風港的對沖。

Overall, current market conditions show no signs of investors moving to cash positions, which supports Bitcoin’s price.

總體而言，當前的市場狀況沒有表明投資者轉向現金頭寸的跡象，這支持比特幣的價格。

BTC derivatives healthy as investors fear AI bubble

BTC導數健康，因為投資者擔心AI泡沫

The Bitcoin derivatives market remains stable, as the current annualized premium on futures stands at 4.5%, despite a 19% price drop between March 2 and 11.

儘管3月2日至11日的價格下跌19％，但目前的期貨年度溢價為4.5％，比特幣衍生品市場仍保持穩定。

For comparison, on June 18, 2022, this indicator fell below 0% after a sharp 44% decline from $31,350 to $17,585 in just 12 days.

為了進行比較，該指標在2022年6月18日下降到0％以下，因為在短短12天內從31,350美元下降到17,585美元。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch

比特幣2個月期貨年度溢價。資料來源：laevitas.ch

Similarly, the Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate is hovering near zero, signaling balanced leverage demand between longs and shorts. Bearish market conditions typically drive excessive demand for short positions, pushing the funding rate below zero.

同樣，比特幣永久期貨融資率徘徊在零接近零，這表明了渴望和短褲之間的槓桿率平衡。看跌的市場狀況通常會導致對短職位的過度需求，將資金率提高到零以下。

Several publicly traded companies with market values exceeding $150 billion have seen sharp declines from their all-time highs, including Tesla (-54%), Palantir (-40%), Nvidia (-34%), Blackstone (-32%), Broadcom (-29%), TSM (-26%), and ServiceNow (-25%). Investor sentiment, especially in the artificial intelligence sector, has turned bearish amid growing recession fears.

市場價值超過1500億美元的幾家公開交易的公司的歷史高潮下降，包括特斯拉（-54％），Palantir（-40％），NVIDIA（-34％），Blackstone（-32％），Broadcom（-29％），TSM（-26％）（-26％）和ServiceNow（-25％）（-25％）（-25％）。投資者的情緒，尤其是在人工智能部門中，由於日益增長的衰退恐懼而變成了看跌。

Related: Bitcoin $70K retracement part of ‘macro correction’ in bull market — Analysts

相關：比特幣$ 70K回撤位的“宏校正”一部分在牛市中 - 分析師

Traders are concerned about a potential US government shutdown on March 15, as lawmakers must pass a bill to raise the debt ceiling. However, according to Yahoo Finance, the Republican party remains divided.

交易者擔心3月15日美國政府可能關閉的可能性，因為立法者必須通過一項法案來提高債務上限。但是，根據雅虎財務，共和黨仍然分裂。

The key points of contention in House Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal are increased spending on defense and immigration.

眾議院議長邁克·約翰遜（Mike Johnson）的提議中爭論的關鍵點正在增加國防和移民的支出。

Risk-on markets, including Bitcoin, are likely to react positively if an agreement is reached.

如果達成協議達成協議，包括比特幣在內的風險市場，包括比特幣。

Real estate crisis is not necessarily negative

房地產危機不一定是負面的

Early signs of a real estate crisis could accelerate capital outflows into other scarce assets. According to Feb. 27 data from the US National Association of Realtors, home contract signings fell to an all-time low in January.

房地產危機的早期跡象可能會加速資本流出到其他稀缺資產中。根據2月27日美國全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，家庭合同簽署在一月份的歷史最低點。

Additionally, a Feb. 23 opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal revealed that over 7% of Federal Housing Administration-insured loans are at least 90 days past due, surpassing the peak of the 2008 subprime crisis.

此外，《華爾街日報》上的一篇2月23日的意見書顯示，超過7％的聯邦住房管理貸款至少在到期90天，超過了2008年次級危機的高峰。

In essence, Bitcoin’s path to reclaiming $90,000 is supported by a weaker US dollar, historical evidence that a 30% price correction does not signal a bear market, resilience in BTC derivatives markets, contagion from government shutdown risks, and early signs of a real estate crisis.This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment

從本質上講，比特幣收回90,000美元的途徑得到了較弱的美元支持，歷史證據表明，30％的價格校正並不表示熊市市場，BTC衍生品市場的韌性，政府關閉風險的傳染以及不應作為一般信息而不是法律的跡象。