卡巴（KAS）已经被高估了吗？专家警告$ 1尚未现实 - KAS价格预测

一位加密货币分析师现在打破了为什么Kaspa（KAS）现在可能会被大幅度高估，这使冷水很快就能达到令人垂涎的$ 1大关的梦想。

A cryptocurrency analyst has poured cold water on dreams of Kaspa (KAS) reaching $1 by 2025, as the expert claims the token could be "significantly overvalued."

一位加密货币分析师已经在卡巴（Kas）（KAS）的梦想中倒了冷水，到2025年达到1美元，因为专家声称，令牌可能被“大大高估”。

The analyst, who is the face behind the YouTube channel Crypto MindSet, is also placing a technical bear market on Kaspa for 2025.

这位分析师是YouTube频道加密心态背后的面孔，他还在Kaspa上放置了2025年Kaspa的技术熊市。

What Is Kaspa And What Is It Known For?

Kaspa是什么，它是什么知名度？

Kaspa is a cryptocurrency that is focused on providing a high throughput blockchain. It uses the PayToInclude (P2I) model for mining, similar to Bitcoin, and aims to offer fast transaction speeds and low fees.

Kaspa是一种加密货币，专注于提供高吞吐量区块链。它使用PaytoInclude（P2I）模型进行采矿，类似于比特币，旨在提供快速交易速度和低费用。

The cryptocurrency is also known for its unique block structure, which is designed to be more efficient than traditional blockchains. It is a PoW cryptocurrency.

加密货币也以其独特的区块结构而闻名，该结构旨在比传统区块链更有效。这是POW加密货币。

Many crypto traders got to know Kaspa in 2022, as it was one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies last year. The token is still up 28,000% from its 2022 lows on a linear chart.

许多加密货币交易者在2022年认识Kaspa，因为它是去年表现最好的加密货币之一。在线性图表上，该令牌仍比其2022低点增长了28,000％。

It’s 280x in terms of return, and it reached a 1,000% gain at its recent peak of around $0.20. But people get it all wrong when they expect Kaspa to go straight up to $5 or $10.

就回报而言，它的收益率为280倍，在最近的高峰期约为0.20美元，达到了1,000％的收益。但是，当人们期望卡巴（Kaspa）直接达到5美元或10美元时，他们就会弄错一切。

These moon-shot predictions on social media don’t align with market reality. I don’t think Kaspa will hit $1 in 2025.

这些在社交媒体上的月球预测与市场现实不符。我认为卡巴不会在2025年达到1美元。

The analyst is placing a technical bear market on Kaspa as it’s currently trading below both its 50-week moving average and its 200-day moving average. A death cross also formed back in October.

这位分析师正在将技术熊市放置在Kaspa上，因为它目前的交易价格低于其50周的移动平均线和200天的移动平均水平。死亡十字架也在十月形成。

This technical signal typically confirms that a bear market is underway on a broader time frame, which aligns with the long-term chart.

该技术信号通常证实，熊市在更广泛的时间范围内正在进行，这与长期图表保持一致。

Most Likely Scenario For Kaspa In 2025

2025年Kaspa最有可能的情况

"I’ll be placing a technical bear market on Kaspa for 2025. If we continue in the current trends, I think we could slide to around $0.03 by the end of 2025 before finally bottoming out and starting a fresh bull cycle."

“我将在2025年将技术熊市放置在Kaspa上。如果我们继续趋势，我认为到2025年底我们可以滑到0.03美元左右，然后最终降低并开始了新的公牛周期。”

"What really matters isn’t the specific price target, but finding the next accumulation range. That’s where smart money is made – buying during consolidation phases rather than chasing a down-trend or buying market tops."

“真正重要的不是特定的目标目标，而是找到下一个累积范围。这是智能货币的目标 - 在合并阶段购买，而不是追求下降趋势或购买市场上涨。”

"Patient investors who accumulate during sideways price action tend to reap the biggest rewards. But people are getting impatient and they want to see immediate gains, which isn’t how these markets usually work."

“在侧向价格行动中积累的耐心投资者往往会获得最大的回报。但是人们越来越不耐烦，他们希望立即获得收益，这不是这些市场通常的运作方式。”

This isn’t your typical crypto top formation. What makes Kaspa particularly interesting is its unusual topping pattern.

这不是您典型的加密顶层。使卡巴特别有趣的是其不寻常的浇头模式。

We're still in February and Kaspa already formed a top over approximately 15 months, from November 2021 to February 2023. Having traded eight years in crypto markets, I can say this is one of the most beautiful but nastiest and longer tops I’ve ever witnessed in cryptocurrency.

我们仍在2月，从2021年11月至2023年2月，卡巴已经在大约15个月内占据了顶峰。在加密货币市场上了八年的交易，我可以说这是我在加密货币中目睹的最美丽但最较长，最长的顶级之一。

Based on historical patterns and this extended topping phase, I'd estimate a minimum of one year of further downside or sideways action from this peak.

基于历史模式和这个扩展的浇头阶段，我估计该峰至少要有一年的进一步下行或侧向行动。

But we could even see this correction last for a greater period. I’ve been warning my followers about Kaspa’s downside risks for months.

但是我们甚至可以看到这种纠正持续更大的时期。几个月来，我一直在警告我的追随者有关卡巴的下行风险。

I spotted several red flags that ultimately coincided with price declines, including the upcoming death cross, issues with the KRC token, and even the much-anticipated Kraken listing.

我发现了几个危险信号，最终与价格下降相吻合，包括即将到来的死亡十字架，与KRC令牌的问题，甚至备受期待的Kraken上市。

But despite my warnings, many viewers remained optimistic, placing price targets of $1 to $5 by 2025, which I personally see as significantly overvalued.

但是，尽管有我的警告，但许多观众仍然乐观，到2025年的价格目标为1至5美元，我个人认为这被高估了。

Now, let's consider a more bullish scenario. If Bitcoin manages to bottom out in 2025 and begin another bull run to new all-time highs, we might see Kaspa follow suit.

现在，让我们考虑一个更看涨的情况。如果比特币在2025年设法降低，并开始另一个新的牛市历史最高点，我们可能会看到卡巴效仿。

However, I see this possibility as less likely given the extended top formation we’ve just witnessed. Instead of focusing on specific price predictions, I'll be watching for a sustained sideways trading range.

但是，考虑到我们刚刚目睹的最高顶层的扩展，我认为这种可能性较小。我没有专注于特定的价格预测，而是关注持续的侧向交易范围。

This range could form between $0.01-$0.02, $0.03-$0.05, or at another level entirely. Once price action stabilizes into this pattern, that’s when I plan to start accumulating for a multi-year hold.

此范围可能形成$ 0.01- $ 0.02，$ 0.03- $ 0.05，或完全在另一个级别上。一旦价格动作稳定在这种模式中，那是我计划开始积累多年的时间。

For traders seeking more immediate signals, we can look at a break above the 200-day moving average, which would suggest a potential bottom is forming. Only then would I begin to reconsider my bearish stance on Kaspa in 2025.

对于寻求更直接信号的交易者，我们可以考虑超过200天移动平均线的突破，这将表明潜在的底层正在形成。只有这样，我才能在2025年开始重新考虑我对卡巴的看跌姿态。

But until we see this technical breakout or a reversal in the broader market trends, I'm sticking with my bearish outlook. So, those $1 predictions might need to be put on ice for now.

但是，直到我们看到这种技术突破或在更广泛的市场趋势中的逆转之前，我一直坚持看不见的前景。因此，目前可能需要将这些1美元的预测放在冰上。