卡巴（KAS）已經被高估了嗎？專家警告$ 1尚未現實 - KAS價格預測

一位加密貨幣分析師現在打破了為什麼Kaspa（KAS）現在可能會被大幅度高估，這使冷水很快就能達到令人垂涎的$ 1大關的夢想。

A cryptocurrency analyst has poured cold water on dreams of Kaspa (KAS) reaching $1 by 2025, as the expert claims the token could be "significantly overvalued."

一位加密貨幣分析師已經在卡巴（Kas）（KAS）的夢想中倒了冷水，到2025年達到1美元，因為專家聲稱，令牌可能被“大大高估”。

The analyst, who is the face behind the YouTube channel Crypto MindSet, is also placing a technical bear market on Kaspa for 2025.

這位分析師是YouTube頻道加密心態背後的面孔，他還在Kaspa上放置了2025年Kaspa的技術熊市。

What Is Kaspa And What Is It Known For?

Kaspa是什麼，它是什麼知名度？

Kaspa is a cryptocurrency that is focused on providing a high throughput blockchain. It uses the PayToInclude (P2I) model for mining, similar to Bitcoin, and aims to offer fast transaction speeds and low fees.

Kaspa是一種加密貨幣，專注於提供高吞吐量區塊鏈。它使用PaytoInclude（P2I）模型進行採礦，類似於比特幣，旨在提供快速交易速度和低費用。

The cryptocurrency is also known for its unique block structure, which is designed to be more efficient than traditional blockchains. It is a PoW cryptocurrency.

加密貨幣也以其獨特的區塊結構而聞名，該結構旨在比傳統區塊鏈更有效。這是POW加密貨幣。

Many crypto traders got to know Kaspa in 2022, as it was one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies last year. The token is still up 28,000% from its 2022 lows on a linear chart.

許多加密貨幣交易者在2022年認識Kaspa，因為它是去年表現最好的加密貨幣之一。在線性圖表上，該令牌仍比其2022低點增長了28,000％。

It’s 280x in terms of return, and it reached a 1,000% gain at its recent peak of around $0.20. But people get it all wrong when they expect Kaspa to go straight up to $5 or $10.

就回報而言，它的收益率為280倍，在最近的高峰期約為0.20美元，達到了1,000％的收益。但是，當人們期望卡巴（Kaspa）直接達到5美元或10美元時，他們就會弄錯一切。

These moon-shot predictions on social media don’t align with market reality. I don’t think Kaspa will hit $1 in 2025.

這些在社交媒體上的月球預測與市場現實不符。我認為卡巴不會在2025年達到1美元。

The analyst is placing a technical bear market on Kaspa as it’s currently trading below both its 50-week moving average and its 200-day moving average. A death cross also formed back in October.

這位分析師正在將技術熊市放置在Kaspa上，因為它目前的交易價格低於其50週的移動平均線和200天的移動平均水平。死亡十字架也在十月形成。

This technical signal typically confirms that a bear market is underway on a broader time frame, which aligns with the long-term chart.

該技術信號通常證實，熊市在更廣泛的時間範圍內正在進行，這與長期圖表保持一致。

Most Likely Scenario For Kaspa In 2025

2025年Kaspa最有可能的情況

"I’ll be placing a technical bear market on Kaspa for 2025. If we continue in the current trends, I think we could slide to around $0.03 by the end of 2025 before finally bottoming out and starting a fresh bull cycle."

“我將在2025年將技術熊市放置在Kaspa上。如果我們繼續趨勢，我認為到2025年底我們可以滑到0.03美元左右，然後最終降低並開始了新的公牛週期。”

"What really matters isn’t the specific price target, but finding the next accumulation range. That’s where smart money is made – buying during consolidation phases rather than chasing a down-trend or buying market tops."

“真正重要的不是特定的目標目標，而是找到下一個累積範圍。這是智能貨幣的目標 - 在合併階段購買，而不是追求下降趨勢或購買市場上漲。”

"Patient investors who accumulate during sideways price action tend to reap the biggest rewards. But people are getting impatient and they want to see immediate gains, which isn’t how these markets usually work."

“在側向價格行動中積累的耐心投資者往往會獲得最大的回報。但是人們越來越不耐煩，他們希望立即獲得收益，這不是這些市場通常的運作方式。”

This isn’t your typical crypto top formation. What makes Kaspa particularly interesting is its unusual topping pattern.

這不是您典型的加密頂層。使卡巴特別有趣的是其不尋常的澆頭模式。

We're still in February and Kaspa already formed a top over approximately 15 months, from November 2021 to February 2023. Having traded eight years in crypto markets, I can say this is one of the most beautiful but nastiest and longer tops I’ve ever witnessed in cryptocurrency.

我們仍在2月，從2021年11月至2023年2月，卡巴已經在大約15個月內佔據了頂峰。在加密貨幣市場上了八年的交易，我可以說這是我在加密貨幣中目睹的最美麗但最較長，最長的頂級之一。

Based on historical patterns and this extended topping phase, I'd estimate a minimum of one year of further downside or sideways action from this peak.

基於歷史模式和這個擴展的澆頭階段，我估計該峰至少要有一年的進一步下行或側向行動。

But we could even see this correction last for a greater period. I’ve been warning my followers about Kaspa’s downside risks for months.

但是我們甚至可以看到這種糾正持續更大的時期。幾個月來，我一直在警告我的追隨者有關卡巴的下行風險。

I spotted several red flags that ultimately coincided with price declines, including the upcoming death cross, issues with the KRC token, and even the much-anticipated Kraken listing.

我發現了幾個危險信號，最終與價格下降相吻合，包括即將到來的死亡十字架，與KRC令牌的問題，甚至備受期待的Kraken上市。

But despite my warnings, many viewers remained optimistic, placing price targets of $1 to $5 by 2025, which I personally see as significantly overvalued.

但是，儘管有我的警告，但許多觀眾仍然樂觀，到2025年的價格目標為1至5美元，我個人認為這被高估了。

Now, let's consider a more bullish scenario. If Bitcoin manages to bottom out in 2025 and begin another bull run to new all-time highs, we might see Kaspa follow suit.

現在，讓我們考慮一個更看漲的情況。如果比特幣在2025年設法降低，並開始另一個新的牛市歷史最高點，我們可能會看到卡巴效仿。

However, I see this possibility as less likely given the extended top formation we’ve just witnessed. Instead of focusing on specific price predictions, I'll be watching for a sustained sideways trading range.

但是，考慮到我們剛剛目睹的最高頂層的擴展，我認為這種可能性較小。我沒有專注於特定的價格預測，而是關注持續的側向交易範圍。

This range could form between $0.01-$0.02, $0.03-$0.05, or at another level entirely. Once price action stabilizes into this pattern, that’s when I plan to start accumulating for a multi-year hold.

此範圍可能形成$ 0.01- $ 0.02，$ 0.03- $ 0.05，或完全在另一個級別上。一旦價格動作穩定在這種模式中，那是我計劃開始積累多年的時間。

For traders seeking more immediate signals, we can look at a break above the 200-day moving average, which would suggest a potential bottom is forming. Only then would I begin to reconsider my bearish stance on Kaspa in 2025.

對於尋求更直接信號的交易者，我們可以考慮超過200天移動平均線的突破，這將表明潛在的底層正在形成。只有這樣，我才能在2025年開始重新考慮我對卡巴的看跌姿態。

But until we see this technical breakout or a reversal in the broader market trends, I'm sticking with my bearish outlook. So, those $1 predictions might need to be put on ice for now.

但是，直到我們看到這種技術突破或在更廣泛的市場趨勢中的逆轉之前，我一直堅持看不見的前景。因此，目前可能需要將這些1美元的預測放在冰上。