Kalshi用户预计比特币将再下降27％

预测市场上的用户卡尔西（Kalshi）似乎对比特币的大规模缩减比特币感到担忧。根据该平台提供的数据，加密社区预计世界上最大的加密货币将下降降低。

Users on the prediction market Kalshi seem to be worried by the massive drawdown Bitcoin is suffering now. According to the data provided by this platform, the crypto community expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency to drop even lower.

预测市场上的用户卡尔西（Kalshi）似乎对比特币的大规模缩减比特币感到担忧。根据该平台提供的数据，加密社区预计世界上最大的加密货币将下降降低。

Today, the bellwether cryptocurrency has recovered by 3.25%, rising to $81,740 where it is trading at the time of this writing.

如今，腰底加密货币已经恢复了3.25％，在撰写本文时正在交易的地方上升至81,740美元。

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been printing large declines on a daily basis with attempts to rise after that. Overall, since the end of last week, BTC has faced a staggering 18.4% correction, having fallen from as high as $99,500 zone.

在过去的一周中，比特币每天都在打印大量下降，此后尝试上升。总体而言，自上周末以来，BTC面临着惊人的18.4％更正，从高达99,500美元的区域下降。

According to the prediction trend, users believe that Bitcoin is likely to lose another 27% and decline to the $58,000 price level.

根据预测趋势，用户认为比特币可能会再损失27％，并降至58,000美元的价格水平。

However, if the cryptocurrency manages to rise, traders on Kalshi see the possibility of it climbing to $108,000.

但是，如果加密货币设法上升，Kalshi的交易者会发现它可能会攀升至108,000美元。

The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $58,000 is currently assessed at 24%, while the possibility of it reaching $108,000 is indicated at 18%.

目前评估比特币降至58,000美元的可能性为24％，而其可能达到108,000美元的可能性为18％。

Earlier this week, predictions for Bitcoin dropping to $48,000 were at 42%, whereas possibilities of BTC rallying to $128,000 were at 12%.

本周早些时候，对比特币降至48,000美元的预测为42％，而BTC集会的可能性为128,000美元，为12％。

Despite the recent rally in the market, driven largely by the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) signals of a slower pace of interest rate hikes, traders on the prediction market are still pessimistic on Bitcoin’s price performance in the short term.

尽管最近在市场上进行集会，这主要是由于美国美联储（美联储）的利率增长速度较慢的信号，但预测市场上的贸易商在短期内仍然对比特币的价格绩效感到悲观。

Bitcoin price drops despite Fed signals

尽管有美联储信号，比特币价格下跌

On Wednesday, the Fed increased the benchmark borrowing cost by 25 basis points, as widely expected, and signaled that it might pause the tightening cycle soon to assess the impact of the rapid rate rises on the economy.

周三，美联储将基准借贷成本提高了25个基点，正如人们所期望的那样，并表明它可能很快就会暂停收紧周期，以评估快速利率对经济的影响。

The U.S. dollar also fell sharply after the Fed statement, rendering crypto less expensive for overseas buyers. In response to the Fed’s decision and the subsequent weakness in the greenback, Bitcoin rose as high as $99,400 on Thursday.

美联储声明后，美元也急剧下降，使海外买家的加密货币价格降低。为了回应美联储的决定和随后的绿色弱点，比特币周四上涨了99,400美元。

However, the cryptocurrency lost more than half of those gains by Friday, as traders booked profits on the recent rally and grew concerned about the possibility of the Fed continuing to hike rates for longer than anticipated.

但是，到周五，加密货币在最近的集会上预订了利润，并越来越担心美联储继续持续比预期更长的时间更长的可能性。

According to traders polled by the Wall Street Journal, there is a better-than-even chance that the Fed will pivot to cutting interest rates by the second quarter of 2024.

根据《华尔街日报》报道的贸易商，美联储将在2024年第二季度降低利率的机会比降低利率高。

The crypto market tends to perform well when rates are low since borrowing costs are cheaper for startups and other businesses, boosting economic growth and, in turn, risker assets like crypto. But when rates are high, as they have been since early 2022, it usually weighs on crypto prices.

当利率较低时，加密市场往往会表现良好，因为借贷成本对于初创企业和其他企业便宜，从而提高了经济增长，进而增加了像加密货币这样的风险资产。但是，当利率很高时，就像2022年初以来一样，它通常会重视加密价格。

"We're not expecting any rate cuts this year. We're expecting the Fed to keep rates at the peak for the better part of the year and then start cutting in early 2024," said Ben Phelps, a crypto trader at TokenChain. "This anticipation of rate cuts is already priced into crypto, and I think we'll see a range-bound market in the near term."

Tokenchain的加密交易员Ben Phelps说：“我们预计今年的税率不会降低。我们预计美联储在一年中的大部分时间将利率保持在峰值，然后在2024年初开始削减。” “这种对降低降低的期望已经定价为加密货币，我认为我们将在短期内看到一个范围有限的市场。”

According to TokenChain data, Bitcoin has fallen 18.4% since the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrency is down 7.5% over the past week.

根据Tokenchain数据，自年初以来，比特币下跌了18.4％。在过去一周中，加密货币下降了7.5％。