Kalshi用戶預計比特幣將再下降27％

預測市場上的用戶卡爾西（Kalshi）似乎對比特幣的大規模縮減比特幣感到擔憂。根據該平台提供的數據，加密社區預計世界上最大的加密貨幣將下降降低。

Users on the prediction market Kalshi seem to be worried by the massive drawdown Bitcoin is suffering now. According to the data provided by this platform, the crypto community expects the world’s largest cryptocurrency to drop even lower.

預測市場上的用戶卡爾西（Kalshi）似乎對比特幣的大規模縮減比特幣感到擔憂。根據該平台提供的數據，加密社區預計世界上最大的加密貨幣將下降降低。

Today, the bellwether cryptocurrency has recovered by 3.25%, rising to $81,740 where it is trading at the time of this writing.

如今，腰底加密貨幣已經恢復了3.25％，在撰寫本文時正在交易的地方上升至81,740美元。

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been printing large declines on a daily basis with attempts to rise after that. Overall, since the end of last week, BTC has faced a staggering 18.4% correction, having fallen from as high as $99,500 zone.

在過去的一周中，比特幣每天都在打印大量下降，此後嘗試上升。總體而言，自上週末以來，BTC面臨著驚人的18.4％更正，從高達99,500美元的區域下降。

According to the prediction trend, users believe that Bitcoin is likely to lose another 27% and decline to the $58,000 price level.

根據預測趨勢，用戶認為比特幣可能會再損失27％，並降至58,000美元的價格水平。

However, if the cryptocurrency manages to rise, traders on Kalshi see the possibility of it climbing to $108,000.

但是，如果加密貨幣設法上升，Kalshi的交易者會發現它可能會攀升至108,000美元。

The probability of Bitcoin dropping to $58,000 is currently assessed at 24%, while the possibility of it reaching $108,000 is indicated at 18%.

目前評估比特幣降至58,000美元的可能性為24％，而其可能達到108,000美元的可能性為18％。

Earlier this week, predictions for Bitcoin dropping to $48,000 were at 42%, whereas possibilities of BTC rallying to $128,000 were at 12%.

本週早些時候，對比特幣降至48,000美元的預測為42％，而BTC集會的可能性為128,000美元，為12％。

Despite the recent rally in the market, driven largely by the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) signals of a slower pace of interest rate hikes, traders on the prediction market are still pessimistic on Bitcoin’s price performance in the short term.

儘管最近在市場上進行集會，這主要是由於美國美聯儲（美聯儲）的利率增長速度較慢的信號，但預測市場上的貿易商在短期內仍然對比特幣的價格績效感到悲觀。

Bitcoin price drops despite Fed signals

儘管有美聯儲信號，比特幣價格下跌

On Wednesday, the Fed increased the benchmark borrowing cost by 25 basis points, as widely expected, and signaled that it might pause the tightening cycle soon to assess the impact of the rapid rate rises on the economy.

週三，美聯儲將基準借貸成本提高了25個基點，正如人們所期望的那樣，並表明它可能很快就會暫停收緊週期，以評估快速利率對經濟的影響。

The U.S. dollar also fell sharply after the Fed statement, rendering crypto less expensive for overseas buyers. In response to the Fed’s decision and the subsequent weakness in the greenback, Bitcoin rose as high as $99,400 on Thursday.

美聯儲聲明後，美元也急劇下降，使海外買家的加密貨幣價格降低。為了回應美聯儲的決定和隨後的綠色弱點，比特幣週四上漲了99,400美元。

However, the cryptocurrency lost more than half of those gains by Friday, as traders booked profits on the recent rally and grew concerned about the possibility of the Fed continuing to hike rates for longer than anticipated.

但是，到週五，加密貨幣在最近的集會上預訂了利潤，並越來越擔心美聯儲繼續持續比預期更長的時間更長的可能性。

According to traders polled by the Wall Street Journal, there is a better-than-even chance that the Fed will pivot to cutting interest rates by the second quarter of 2024.

根據《華爾街日報》報導的貿易商，美聯儲將在2024年第二季度降低利率的機會比降低利率高。

The crypto market tends to perform well when rates are low since borrowing costs are cheaper for startups and other businesses, boosting economic growth and, in turn, risker assets like crypto. But when rates are high, as they have been since early 2022, it usually weighs on crypto prices.

當利率較低時，加密市場往往會表現良好，因為藉貸成本對於初創企業和其他企業便宜，從而提高了經濟增長，進而增加了像加密貨幣這樣的風險資產。但是，當利率很高時，就像2022年初以來一樣，它通常會重視加密價格。

"We're not expecting any rate cuts this year. We're expecting the Fed to keep rates at the peak for the better part of the year and then start cutting in early 2024," said Ben Phelps, a crypto trader at TokenChain. "This anticipation of rate cuts is already priced into crypto, and I think we'll see a range-bound market in the near term."

Tokenchain的加密交易員Ben Phelps說：“我們預計今年的稅率不會降低。我們預計美聯儲在一年中的大部分時間將利率保持在峰值，然後在2024年初開始削減。” “這種對降低降低的期望已經定價為加密貨幣，我認為我們將在短期內看到一個範圍有限的市場。”

According to TokenChain data, Bitcoin has fallen 18.4% since the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrency is down 7.5% over the past week.

根據Tokenchain數據，自年初以來，比特幣下跌了18.4％。在過去一周中，加密貨幣下降了7.5％。