Jurrien Timmer预测，比特币将在未来10 - 20年内翻转黄金的市值

Fidelity全球宏观主任Jurrien Timmer在比特币与黄金辩论方面进行了权衡，并指出，总理资产可能很快就会出现。

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, has weighed in on the Bitcoin (BTC) vs. gold debate, stating that the premier asset could come out tops soon enough.

Fidelity全球宏观局长Jurrien Timmer已对比特币（BTC）与黄金辩论进行了权衡，并指出，总理资产可能很快就会出现。

Both Bitcoin and gold are considered stores of value due to their scarce nature and have continued to thrive in harsh market circumstances, with Bitcoin outperforming in the last decade.

比特币和黄金都因其稀缺性而被认为是价值的存储，并且在严酷的市场环境中继续蓬勃发展，在过去的十年中，比特币的表现优于表现。

While the difference in valuation between gold and Bitcoin is miles off in the current market, analysts believe the pioneering cryptocurrency will catch up due to its impressive growth pace.

尽管在当前市场上，黄金和比特币之间的估值差异已经差，但分析师认为，由于其令人印象深刻的增长步伐，开创性的加密货币将赶上。

Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, also shares this sentiment as he discussed the topic yesterday.

菲德利（Fidelity）的全球宏观总监朱雷恩·蒂默（Jurrien Timmer）在昨天讨论这个话题时也分享了这种观点。

In an X post on March 28, Timmer highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin outperforming gold. The Fidelity executive noted that the digital asset could accomplish the daunting feat but admitted it would not happen anytime soon.

在3月28日的X帖子中，Timmer强调了比特币的可能性优于黄金的可能性。富达高管指出，数字资产可以实现艰巨的壮举，但承认这不会很快发生。

“People often ask me if #Bitcoin can 'flip' #gold. It’s possible, but I don't think it will happen quickly,” he said.

他说：“人们经常问我#bitcoin是否可以'翻转'#gold。这是可能的，但我认为这不会很快发生。”

The post then went on to discuss how quickly the cryptocurrency would have to grow to match the precious metal.

然后，该帖子继续讨论加密货币必须成长的速度以与贵金属相匹配。

As shared by Timmer, the precious metal has been appreciating in value at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% since 1970, already growing 17% this year.

如蒂默（Timmer）所共有的那样，贵金属的价值一直以自1970年以来的复合年增长率（CAGR）为8％，今年已经增长了17％。

However, if gold grows at this rate and Bitcoin follows either the power law curve or the internet S-curve model, the cryptocurrency could catch up in ten to twenty years. An accompanying chart shows that following the power curve model would see Bitcoin match gold’s valuation by 2035.

但是，如果黄金以这种速度增长，并且比特币遵循了电源法曲线或互联网S-Curve模型，则加密货币可能会在十到二十年内赶上。随附的图表显示，遵循功率曲线模型将在2035年看到比特币匹配金的估值。

But the internet S-curve model, which indicates Bitcoin’s price correlation with its adoption rate, would take much longer, with Timmer suggesting a 20-year timeframe for Bitcoin to match gold using the metric. Nonetheless, the Fidelity executive noted that gold may always be “Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling” if it accelerates its growth past the 8% CAGR.

但是，Internet S-Curve模型表明比特币与其采用率的价格相关性，将需要更长的时间，而Timmer建议比特币使用该度量标准符合黄金的时间范围20年。尽管如此，富达高管指出，如果黄金会加速其超过8％的复合年增长率，那么黄金可能总是“比特币更安静的兄弟姐妹”。

Meanwhile, if gold grows hypothetically at 8% per annum from its current price of $3,085 (leaving behind its 17% rally so far this year), the asset will trade at $6,660 per ounce in 2035. Assuming its above-ground stock remains at approximately 6.7 billion ounces, gold’s market cap would hit $44.62 trillion, nearly 116% up from its current valuation of $20.67 trillion.

同时，如果黄金以每年8％的假设增长，其目前的价格为3,085美元（今年迄今为止落后17％的集会），该资产将以2035年的价格以每盎司6,660美元的价格交易。假设其上方的股票保持在地面上的股票，则在44.62亿美元的票房中，其票价约为67亿美元，将其售价约67亿美元，票价为44.62 $ 116％。

From Timmer’s assertion, Bitcoin would match gold’s valuation in 2035 using the power law projection. This means that the pioneering cryptocurrency would hypothetically hit a market cap of $44.62 trillion a decade from now.

根据蒂默（Timmer）的断言，比特币将使用Power Law投影在2035年的估值与戈尔德（Gold）的估值相匹配。这意味着从现在开始，开创性的加密货币将假设触及44.62万亿美元的市值。

Hence, with a hypothetically unchanged Bitcoin supply of 19.84 million and a market cap of $44.62 trillion, the crypto leader would reach $2.25 million per coin by 2035.

因此，到2035年，Crypto领导者假设有未改变的比特币供应量为1984万美元，市值为44.62万亿美元，加密货币领导人将达到每枚硬币225万美元。