Jurrien Timmer預測，比特幣將在未來10 - 20年內翻轉黃金的市值

Fidelity全球宏觀主任Jurrien Timmer在比特幣與黃金辯論方面進行了權衡，並指出，總理資產可能很快就會出現。

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, has weighed in on the Bitcoin (BTC) vs. gold debate, stating that the premier asset could come out tops soon enough.

Fidelity全球宏觀局長Jurrien Timmer已對比特幣（BTC）與黃金辯論進行了權衡，並指出，總理資產可能很快就會出現。

Both Bitcoin and gold are considered stores of value due to their scarce nature and have continued to thrive in harsh market circumstances, with Bitcoin outperforming in the last decade.

比特幣和黃金都因其稀缺性而被認為是價值的存儲，並且在嚴酷的市場環境中繼續蓬勃發展，在過去的十年中，比特幣的表現優於表現。

While the difference in valuation between gold and Bitcoin is miles off in the current market, analysts believe the pioneering cryptocurrency will catch up due to its impressive growth pace.

儘管在當前市場上，黃金和比特幣之間的估值差異已經差，但分析師認為，由於其令人印象深刻的增長步伐，開創性的加密貨幣將趕上。

Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, also shares this sentiment as he discussed the topic yesterday.

菲德利（Fidelity）的全球宏觀總監朱雷恩·蒂默（Jurrien Timmer）在昨天討論這個話題時也分享了這種觀點。

In an X post on March 28, Timmer highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin outperforming gold. The Fidelity executive noted that the digital asset could accomplish the daunting feat but admitted it would not happen anytime soon.

在3月28日的X帖子中，Timmer強調了比特幣的可能性優於黃金的可能性。富達高管指出，數字資產可以實現艱鉅的壯舉，但承認這不會很快發生。

“People often ask me if #Bitcoin can 'flip' #gold. It’s possible, but I don't think it will happen quickly,” he said.

他說：“人們經常問我#bitcoin是否可以'翻轉'#gold。這是可能的，但我認為這不會很快發生。”

The post then went on to discuss how quickly the cryptocurrency would have to grow to match the precious metal.

然後，該帖子繼續討論加密貨幣必須成長的速度以與貴金屬相匹配。

As shared by Timmer, the precious metal has been appreciating in value at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% since 1970, already growing 17% this year.

如蒂默（Timmer）所共有的那樣，貴金屬的價值一直以自1970年以來的複合年增長率（CAGR）為8％，今年已經增長了17％。

However, if gold grows at this rate and Bitcoin follows either the power law curve or the internet S-curve model, the cryptocurrency could catch up in ten to twenty years. An accompanying chart shows that following the power curve model would see Bitcoin match gold’s valuation by 2035.

但是，如果黃金以這種速度增長，並且比特幣遵循了電源法曲線或互聯網S-Curve模型，則加密貨幣可能會在十到二十年內趕上。隨附的圖表顯示，遵循功率曲線模型將在2035年看到比特幣匹配金的估值。

But the internet S-curve model, which indicates Bitcoin’s price correlation with its adoption rate, would take much longer, with Timmer suggesting a 20-year timeframe for Bitcoin to match gold using the metric. Nonetheless, the Fidelity executive noted that gold may always be “Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling” if it accelerates its growth past the 8% CAGR.

但是，Internet S-Curve模型表明比特幣與其採用率的價格相關性，將需要更長的時間，而Timmer建議比特幣使用該度量標準符合黃金的時間範圍20年。儘管如此，富達高管指出，如果黃金會加速其超過8％的複合年增長率，那麼黃金可能總是“比特幣更安靜的兄弟姐妹”。

Meanwhile, if gold grows hypothetically at 8% per annum from its current price of $3,085 (leaving behind its 17% rally so far this year), the asset will trade at $6,660 per ounce in 2035. Assuming its above-ground stock remains at approximately 6.7 billion ounces, gold’s market cap would hit $44.62 trillion, nearly 116% up from its current valuation of $20.67 trillion.

同時，如果黃金以每年8％的假設增長，其目前的價格為3,085美元（今年迄今為止落後17％的集會），該資產將以2035年的價格以每盎司6,660美元的價格交易。假設其上方的股票保持在地面上的股票，則在44.62億美元的票房中，其票價約為67億美元，將其售價約67億美元，票價為44.62 $ 116％。

From Timmer’s assertion, Bitcoin would match gold’s valuation in 2035 using the power law projection. This means that the pioneering cryptocurrency would hypothetically hit a market cap of $44.62 trillion a decade from now.

根據蒂默（Timmer）的斷言，比特幣將使用Power Law投影在2035年的估值與戈爾德（Gold）的估值相匹配。這意味著從現在開始，開創性的加密貨幣將假設觸及44.62萬億美元的市值。

Hence, with a hypothetically unchanged Bitcoin supply of 19.84 million and a market cap of $44.62 trillion, the crypto leader would reach $2.25 million per coin by 2035.

因此，到2035年，Crypto領導者假設有未改變的比特幣供應量為1984萬美元，市值為44.62萬億美元，加密貨幣領導人將達到每枚硬幣225萬美元。