加强比特币下降趋势

5个月内下跌低于$ 75000

The downturn in the prices of virtual assets, such as Bitcoin (BTC), is intensifying. Analysis suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market, which has continued since last year, has ended is also gaining traction.

虚拟资产价格的低迷，例如比特币（BTC），正在加剧。分析表明，自去年以来一直持续的比特币牛市也在引起关注。

According to CoinMarketCap, a virtual asset market tracking site, the price of Bitcoin fell below the $75,000 mark at one point on the 7th. This is a sharp drop of about 10% compared to the previous day, and it marks the first time Bitcoin has fallen below $75,000 since November last year. Major altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), recorded a decline of 19–20% in just one day. XRP also showed a decline close to 22%.

根据虚拟资产市场跟踪网站CoinMarketCap的说法，比特币的价格低于75,000美元。与前一天相比，这是大约10％的急剧下降，这标志着比特币自去年11月以来首次下跌低于75,000美元。诸如以太坊（ETH）和Solana（Sol）等主要的Altcoins在一天内的下降了19-20％。 XRP也显示出接近22％的下降。

The main cause of the sharp decline is attributed to the ‘tariff bomb’ triggered by Trump. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a large-scale reciprocal tariff policy on the 2nd (local time) of this month. As a result, nearly $6.6 trillion (about 9,670 trillion won) in market capitalization evaporated from the U.S. stock market alone last week. This week, major stock markets, such as Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, have also plummeted. On this day, due to the sharp decline in the KOSPI, a sidecar (temporary suspension of trading) was triggered for the first time in 8 months since last August.

急剧下降的主要原因归因于特朗普触发的“关税炸弹”。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布了本月第二个（当地时间）的大规模相互关税政策。结果，上周仅美国股票市场就蒸发了近6.6万亿美元（约9,670万韩元）。本周，日本的Nikkei和香港的Hang Seng Index等主要股市也暴跌。在这一天，由于KOSPI的急剧下降，自去年8月以来的8个月内首次触发了边锋（暂时停工）。

Initially, the price of Bitcoin maintained the $82,000 support line until last weekend. It showed a movement contrary to the U.S. stock market, where the coupling (synchronization) phenomenon has recently strengthened. Rather, Bitcoin temporarily rose and held its ground on the 4th and 5th, when the U.S. stock market's sharp decline began, buoyed by analysis that it could be a ‘tariff safe haven’. Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, also raised investors' expectations by stating, "Bitcoin is not subject to tariffs" immediately after the U.S. government's announcement of the reciprocal tariff policy.

最初，直到上周末，比特币的价格维持了82,000美元的支持线。它显示了与美国股票市场相反的运动，美国股票市场最近加强了耦合（同步）现象。相反，比特币在美国股市急剧下降开始时暂时上升并在第4和第5位举行，这可能是“关税避风港”。战略董事长迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）还指出，在美国政府宣布互惠关税政策后，“比特币不缴纳关税”，提高了投资者的期望。

"Entering Bear Market According to Data"

“根据数据进入熊市”

However, as the decline in Bitcoin prices increases, the analysis that the bull market has ended is gaining traction in the market. The signal was fired by Ju Ki-young, CEO of CryptoQuant. Just before the Bitcoin downtrend began in earnest, CEO Ju claimed on the 6th via X that "the Bitcoin bull market is over" and "the possibility of a short-term rebound seems low."

但是，随着比特币价格下跌的下跌，牛市结束的分析正在在市场上受到关注。该信号是由加密量牌首席执行官Ju Ki-Young发射的。在比特币下降趋势开始之前，首席执行官JU在第六次通过X上声称“比特币牛市已经结束了”和“短期反弹的可能性似乎很低”。

CEO Ju said, "In a bull market, prices rise even with small funds, but in a bear market, prices do not rise even with large funds," and "the current data clearly points to the latter (bear market)."

首席执行官JU说：“在牛市中，价格即使有少量资金，价格也会上涨，但是在熊市中，价格也不会上涨，即使大量资金也不会上涨，”和“当前的数据显然指向后者（熊市）。”

This is not the first time CEO Ju has made such an analysis. On the 18th of last month, CEO Ju declared the end of the bull market, stating, "A bear market or sideways market will continue for the next 6 to 12 months." At that time, CEO Ju said, "All on-chain indicators point to a bear market," and "even when indicators were ambiguous over the past two years, I have argued for a bull market, but now it seems clear that we are entering a bear market."

这不是首席执行官JU首次进行这样的分析。上个月18日，首席执行官JU宣布牛市的结束，并指出：“熊市或侧向市场将在接下来的6到12个月内持续。”当时，首席执行官JU说：“所有链链指标都指向熊市”，并且“即使在过去两年中指标都模棱两可，我也为牛市主张，但现在很明显，我们正在进入熊市。”

Growth rate gap between Bitcoin (BTC) market cap and realized market cap.

比特币（BTC）市值与实现市值之间的增长率差距。

What CEO Ju focused on is the ‘Realized Cap’. The realized market cap is a figure measured based on the purchase price and quantity of each Bitcoin holder recorded on the blockchain, and it is an indicator that can more accurately grasp the flow of funds in the market than the ‘Market Cap’.

首席执行官JU专注于“已实现的帽子”。实现的市值是根据区块链记录的每个比特币持有人的购买价格和数量来衡量的数字，它的指标可以比“市值”更准确地掌握市场中的资金流量。

CEO Ju explained, "The realized market cap shows how much actual funds are flowing into the market," and "if the realized market cap is increasing but the market cap is stagnant or declining, it means funds are coming in but prices are not rising." He added, "(Currently) funds are flowing into the market, but prices are not responding," and "this is a phenomenon commonly seen in bear markets."

首席执行官JU解释说：“实现的市值显示了多少实际资金流入市场”和“如果实现的市值正在增加，但市值停滞或下降，这意味着资金正在进来，但价格没有上涨。”他补充说：“（目前）资金正在流入市场，但价格没有回应”，“这是在熊市中通常看到的现象。”

"Possibility of Falling to $70,000"

“跌至70,000美元的可能性”

Given the situation, concerns are growing that the price decline could stiffen. Julia Zhou, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of virtual asset market maker (MM) Caladan, told Bloomberg, "Cryptocurrencies generally serve as a leading indicator of risk assets," and "a more drastic adjustment is expected when the U.S. market opens today (7th)." Virtual asset analyst Michaël van de Poppe also stated on X that "a rollercoaster-like trend will continue over the next 1-2 weeks, testing the bottom of Bitcoin," and "(at the current rate of decline) it could fall to $70,000."

考虑到这种情况，人们一直在担心价格下跌可能会加剧。 Virtual Asset Mlegner（MM）Caladan首席运营官（COO）的首席运营官Julia Zhou告诉彭博社，“加密货币通常是风险资产的主要指标”，“当美国市场在今天（7th）开放时，预计会进行更严重的调整。”虚拟资产分析师Michaëlvan de Poppe还在X上说：“像过山车的趋势将在接下来的1-2周内持续，测试比特币的底部”和“（目前下降速度）可能降至70,000美元。”

However, there are also quite a few experts maintaining a bullish stance. They believe that the U.

但是，也有很多专家保持看涨的立场。他们认为美国