三个指标确认 2025 年加密货币替代季节已于 11 月 9 日开始：加密货币总市值（不含）。 BTC和ETH突破，狗狗币突破50%斐波那契水平，美元维持在107点下方

在本文中，我们回顾了 4 个指标中的 3 个，这些指标表明 2025 年替代季节已经到来。有趣的是，第四个指标正在测试突破

Three indicators are confirming crypto alt season 2025 started on November 9th: crypto total market cap excl. BTC and ETH breaks out, Dogecoin clears its 50% Fibonacci level, the USD remains below 107 points.

三个指标确认 2025 年加密货币替代季节已于 11 月 9 日开始：加密货币总市值（不含）。 BTC和ETH突破，狗狗币突破50%斐波那契水平，美元仍低于107点。

In this article, we review 3 out of the 4 indicators that are screaming ALT SEASON 2025 is here.

在本文中，我们回顾了 4 个指标中的 3 个，这些指标表明 2025 年替代季节已经到来。

Interestingly, the 4th indicator is testing a breakout, so it might be a matter of hours or days until all alt season 2025 confirmations are in!

有趣的是，第四个指标正在测试突破，因此可能需要几个小时或几天的时间才能确认 2025 年所有山寨币季节！

Alt season 2025 – total market cap excl. BTC/ETH

2025 年替代季节 – 总市值（不含）比特币/以太币

First alt season indicator – total crypto market cap excl. leading indicators BTC/ETH.

第一个替代季节指标 – 加密货币总市值（不包括在内）领先指标 BTC/ETH。

This indicator matters simply because it excludes Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). That’s because the two largest cryptocurrencies are great leading indicators, but tend to move slower when alts accelerate their move (typically at the start of alt season).

该指标很重要，因为它不包括比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）。这是因为两种最大的加密货币是很好的领先指标，但当山寨币加速走势时（通常是在山寨币季节开始时），其走势往往会变慢。

As seen below, we accurately predicted the start of alt season 2024 late January 2024, see chart below.

如下图所示，我们准确预测了 2024 年替代季节的开始时间为 2024 年 1 月下旬，见下图。

This crypto market breakout has legs. The first two targets are shown on the chart. That’s quite some upside potential before alt season 2025 gets back to its 2021 highs (where the breakout process to ATH will start).

这种加密货币市场的突破是有道理的。前两个目标显示在图表上。在 2025 年替代季节回到 2021 年高点（ATH 突破过程将开始）之前，这是相当大的上行潜力。

Alt season 2025 – DOGE clears key Fibonacci level

Alt 季节 2025 – DOGE 清除关键斐波那契水平

The second indicator is Dogecoin (DOGE), the ultimate alt season barometer. It is now above its most important Fibonacci level, since Nov 9th, 2024, confirming alt season 2025.

第二个指标是狗狗币（DOGE），山寨币季节的终极晴雨表。它现在高于自 2024 年 11 月 9 日以来最重要的斐波那契水平，确认了 2025 年的替代季节。

We have been repeating the importance of the 50% Fibonacci level throughout all our writings since many years.

多年来，我们一直在所有著作中重复 50% 斐波那契水平的重要性。

Dogecoin is clearing, convincingly, its 50% Fibonacci level, around Nov 9th, 2024.

令人信服的是，狗狗币将于 2024 年 11 月 9 日左右突破其 50% 斐波那契水平。

The message is loud and clear – Dogecoin, the ultimate bullish momentum barometer among all altcoins, is starting a new bullish wave. This is the most convincing alt season 2025 signal.

这个信息响亮而明确——狗狗币，所有山寨币中的终极看涨动量晴雨表，正在开启新的看涨浪潮。这是2025年最有说服力的另类季节信号。

Alt season 2025 – US Dollar below key Fibonacci level

2025 年替代季节 – 美元低于关键斐波那契水平

The third indicator is an external one – the US Dollar, inversely correlated to crypto markets, is unable to clear its 50% Fibonacci level (so far, at least) – this raises confidence in the alt season indicators outlined above.

第三个指标是外部指标——与加密货币市场呈负相关的美元无法突破 50% 的斐波那契水平（至少到目前为止）——这增强了人们对上述山寨币季节指标的信心。

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to Bitcoin and altcoins.

美元与比特币和山寨币成反比。

The USD chart makes it clear – it may have bounced in October, but the bounce happened from oversold levels.

美元图表清楚地表明——它可能在 10 月份反弹，但反弹发生在超卖水平。

Once the USD clears 107 points, it will turn bullish. Given this current chart setup, it seems a rather low probability for the USD to turn bullish. Until the USD turns bullish, crypto can move much higher.

一旦美元突破107点，就会转为看涨。鉴于目前的图表设置，美元转为看涨的可能性似乎相当低。在美元转为看涨之前，加密货币可能会走得更高。

SHIB – the last indicator testing a breakout

SHIB – 测试突​​破的最后一个指标

The 4th (and last) indicator confirming a new alt season is Shiba, the 2nd largest meme, which ideally also confirms a breakout.

确认新的另类季节的第四个（也是最后一个）指标是 Shiba，第二大模因，理想情况下也确认了突破。

Shiba Inu (SHIB) did not breakout yet.

柴犬（SHIB）还没有突破。

It is right now testing its 50% Fibonacci level.

目前正在测试 50% 斐波那契水平。

Arguably, its chart suggests that it’s a matter of time, either hours or days, until SHIB clears THE most important Fibonacci level which is $.00002345.

可以说，它的图表表明，SHIB 突破最重要的斐波那契水平（即 0.00002345 美元）只是时间问题，无论是几小时还是几天。

If and when SHIB moves above this level, it will be the final indicator confirming the new bullish trend in alts.

如果 SHIB 突破这一水平，这将是确认替代品新的看涨趋势的最终指标。

Conclusion

结论

It’s crystal clear – alts started a new bullish wave.

很明显——替代品开始了新的看涨浪潮。

This new alt season has legs, and will not peak before June 2025 is our thesis.

我们的论点是，这个新的山寨币季节是有腿的，并且在 2025 年 6 月之前不会达到顶峰。

Premium crypto members were alerted ahead of the breakout – most of our token tips alts have risen between 30 to 200% since our recommended entries.

高级加密货币会员在突破之前就收到了警报——自我们推荐的条目以来，我们的大多数代币提示 alt 已经上涨了 30% 至 200%。