三個指標確認 2025 年加密貨幣替代季節已於 11 月 9 日開始：加密貨幣總市值（不含）。 BTC和ETH突破，狗狗幣突破50%斐波那契水平，美元維持在107點下方

在本文中，我們回顧了 4 個指標中的 3 個，這些指標表明 2025 年替代季節已經到來。有趣的是，第四個指標正在測試突破

Three indicators are confirming crypto alt season 2025 started on November 9th: crypto total market cap excl. BTC and ETH breaks out, Dogecoin clears its 50% Fibonacci level, the USD remains below 107 points.

三個指標確認 2025 年加密貨幣替代季節已於 11 月 9 日開始：加密貨幣總市值（不含）。 BTC和ETH突破，狗狗幣突破50%斐波那契水平，美元仍低於107點。

In this article, we review 3 out of the 4 indicators that are screaming ALT SEASON 2025 is here.

在本文中，我們回顧了 4 個指標中的 3 個，這些指標表明 2025 年替代季節已經到來。

Interestingly, the 4th indicator is testing a breakout, so it might be a matter of hours or days until all alt season 2025 confirmations are in!

有趣的是，第四個指標正在測試突破，因此可能需要幾個小時或幾天的時間才能確認 2025 年所有山寨幣季節！

Alt season 2025 – total market cap excl. BTC/ETH

2025 年替代季 – 總市值（不含）比特幣/以太坊

First alt season indicator – total crypto market cap excl. leading indicators BTC/ETH.

第一個替代季節指標 – 加密貨幣總市值（不包括在內）領先指標 BTC/ETH。

This indicator matters simply because it excludes Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). That’s because the two largest cryptocurrencies are great leading indicators, but tend to move slower when alts accelerate their move (typically at the start of alt season).

該指標很重要，因為它不包括比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）。這是因為兩種最大的加密貨幣是很好的領先指標，但當山寨幣加速走勢時（通常是在山寨幣季節開始時），其走勢往往會變慢。

As seen below, we accurately predicted the start of alt season 2024 late January 2024, see chart below.

如下圖所示，我們準確預測了 2024 年替代季節的開始時間為 2024 年 1 月下旬，見下圖。

This crypto market breakout has legs. The first two targets are shown on the chart. That’s quite some upside potential before alt season 2025 gets back to its 2021 highs (where the breakout process to ATH will start).

這種加密貨幣市場的突破是有道理的。前兩個目標顯示在圖表上。在 2025 年替代季節回到 2021 年高點（ATH 突破過程將開始）之前，這是相當大的上行潛力。

Alt season 2025 – DOGE clears key Fibonacci level

Alt 季節 2025 – DOGE 清除關鍵斐波那契水平

The second indicator is Dogecoin (DOGE), the ultimate alt season barometer. It is now above its most important Fibonacci level, since Nov 9th, 2024, confirming alt season 2025.

第二個指標是狗狗幣（DOGE），山寨幣季節的終極晴雨表。它現在高於 2024 年 11 月 9 日以來最重要的斐波那契水平，確認了 2025 年替代季節。

We have been repeating the importance of the 50% Fibonacci level throughout all our writings since many years.

多年來，我們一直在所有著作中重複 50% 斐波那契程度的重要性。

Dogecoin is clearing, convincingly, its 50% Fibonacci level, around Nov 9th, 2024.

令人信服的是，狗狗幣將於 2024 年 11 月 9 日左右突破其 50% 斐波那契水準。

The message is loud and clear – Dogecoin, the ultimate bullish momentum barometer among all altcoins, is starting a new bullish wave. This is the most convincing alt season 2025 signal.

這個訊息響亮而明確——狗狗幣，所有山寨幣中的終極看漲動量晴雨表，正在開啟新的看漲浪潮。這是2025年最有說服力的另類季節訊號。

Alt season 2025 – US Dollar below key Fibonacci level

2025 年替代季節 – 美元低於關鍵斐波那契水平

The third indicator is an external one – the US Dollar, inversely correlated to crypto markets, is unable to clear its 50% Fibonacci level (so far, at least) – this raises confidence in the alt season indicators outlined above.

第三個指標是外部指標——與加密貨幣市場呈負相關的美元無法突破 50% 的斐波那契水平（至少到目前為止）——這增強了人們對上述山寨幣季節指標的信心。

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to Bitcoin and altcoins.

美元與比特幣和山寨幣成反比。

The USD chart makes it clear – it may have bounced in October, but the bounce happened from oversold levels.

美元圖表清楚地表明——它可能在 10 月反彈，但反彈發生在超賣水平。

Once the USD clears 107 points, it will turn bullish. Given this current chart setup, it seems a rather low probability for the USD to turn bullish. Until the USD turns bullish, crypto can move much higher.

一旦美元突破107點，就會轉為看漲。鑑於目前的圖表設置，美元轉為看漲的可能性似乎相當低。在美元轉為看漲之前，加密貨幣可能會走得更高。

SHIB – the last indicator testing a breakout

SHIB – 測試突發的最後一個指標

The 4th (and last) indicator confirming a new alt season is Shiba, the 2nd largest meme, which ideally also confirms a breakout.

確認新的另類季節的第四個（也是最後一個）指標是 Shiba，第二大迷因，理想情況下也確認了突破。

Shiba Inu (SHIB) did not breakout yet.

柴犬（SHIB）還沒突破。

It is right now testing its 50% Fibonacci level.

目前正在測試 50% 斐波那契水平。

Arguably, its chart suggests that it’s a matter of time, either hours or days, until SHIB clears THE most important Fibonacci level which is $.00002345.

可以說，它的圖表表明，SHIB 突破最重要的斐波那契水平（即 0.00002345 美元）只是時間問題，無論是幾小時還是幾天。

If and when SHIB moves above this level, it will be the final indicator confirming the new bullish trend in alts.

如果 SHIB 突破這一水平，這將是確認替代品新的看漲趨勢的最終指標。

Conclusion

結論

It’s crystal clear – alts started a new bullish wave.

很明顯——替代品開始了新的看漲浪潮。

This new alt season has legs, and will not peak before June 2025 is our thesis.

我們的論點是，這個新的山寨幣季節是有腿的，並且在 2025 年 6 月之前不會達到頂峰。

Premium crypto members were alerted ahead of the breakout – most of our token tips alts have risen between 30 to 200% since our recommended entries.

高級加密貨幣會員在突破之前就收到了警報——自從我們推薦的條目以來，我們的大多數代幣提示 alt 已經上漲了 30% 至 200%。