明年加密货币领域可能发生的 7 件大事

总的来说，这些里程碑巩固了 2024 年加密行业证明自己是全球舞台上一股不可阻挡的力量。

This article provides seven predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, based on key developments and trends observed in 2024. These predictions cover various aspects of the crypto ecosystem, including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the performance of major cryptocurrencies.

本文根据 2024 年观察到的主要发展和趋势，对 2025 年加密货币行业提出了七项预测。这些预测涵盖了加密生态系统的各个方面，包括监管变化、技术进步以及主要加密货币的表现。

1. A major country in the G7 or BRICS will establish and announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve

1. G7或金砖国家中的一个主要国家将建立并宣布比特币战略储备

The Trump administration's proposal to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) for the U.S. has sparked much debate and speculation. While adding Bitcoin to the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet would require considerable political will and congressional approval, the mere fact of proposing the initiative has far-reaching implications.

特朗普政府关于为美国建立战略比特币储备（SBR）的提议引发了很多争论和猜测。虽然将比特币添加到美国财政部的资产负债表中需要相当大的政治意愿和国会的批准，但提出这一举措本身就具有深远的影响。

By signaling the possibility of an SBR, the United States is effectively inviting other major countries to consider similar initiatives. Game theory suggests that these countries may be incentivized to take preemptive action, potentially securing a strategic advantage in diversifying their national reserves before the United States does. Bitcoin’s limited supply and its emerging role as a digital store of value may heighten the urgency for countries to act quickly.

通过暗示建立战略商业伙伴关系的可能性，美国实际上是在邀请其他主要国家考虑类似的举措。博弈论表明，这些国家可能会采取先发制人的行动，从而有可能在美国之前获得实现国家储备多元化的战略优势。比特币的供应有限及其作为数字价值储存手段的新兴作用可能会加剧各国迅速采取行动的紧迫性。

Now, a "who is the first" race is underway to see which major country will be the first to include Bitcoin in its national reserves, holding Bitcoin like gold, foreign exchange and government bonds, and diversifying its asset allocation. This move will not only consolidate Bitcoin's position as a global reserve asset, but may also reshape the international financial landscape and have a profound impact on the economic and geopolitical power structure. The establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves by any major economy may mark the beginning of a new era of sovereign wealth management.

现在，一场“谁是第一个”的竞赛正在展开，看哪个大国将第一个将比特币纳入国家储备，像持有黄金、外汇和国债一样持有比特币，实现资产配置多元化。此举不仅将巩固比特币作为全球储备资产的地位，还可能重塑国际金融格局，并对经济和地缘政治权力结构产生深远影响。任何主要经济体建立比特币战略储备都可能标志着主权财富管理新时代的开始。

2. Stablecoins will continue to grow, doubling to over $400 billion

2. 稳定币将继续增长，翻倍至超过 4000 亿美元

Stablecoins have become one of the most successful mainstream use cases for cryptocurrencies, building a bridge between the traditional financial and cryptocurrency ecosystems. Millions of people around the world use stablecoins for remittances, daily transactions, and to hedge against local currency fluctuations by leveraging the relative stability of the U.S. dollar.

稳定币已成为加密货币最成功的主流用例之一，在传统金融和加密货币生态系统之间架起了一座桥梁。全球数百万人使用稳定币进行汇款、日常交易，并利用美元的相对稳定性来对冲本币波动。

Stablecoins in circulation reach an all-time high of $200 billion in 2024, with market leaders Tether and Circle. These digital currencies rely on blockchain networks such as Ethereum, Solana, and Tron to facilitate seamless, borderless transactions.

流通中的稳定币将在 2024 年达到 2000 亿美元的历史新高，市场领先者是 Tether 和 Circle。这些数字货币依赖于以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等区块链网络来促进无缝、无边界的交易。

Looking ahead, stablecoin growth is expected to accelerate by 2025, potentially doubling to over $400 billion. This growth will be fueled by the passage of stablecoin-specific legislation, which could provide much-needed regulatory clarity and foster innovation in the industry. U.S. regulators are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of stablecoins in strengthening the U.S. dollar’s global dominance and cementing its status as the world’s reserve currency.

展望未来，稳定币增长预计将在 2025 年加速，可能翻一番，达到 4000 亿美元以上。这种增长将由稳定币特定立法的通过推动，这可以提供急需的监管清晰度并促进行业创新。美国监管机构越来越认识到稳定币在加强美元全球主导地位和巩固其世界储备货币地位方面的战略重要性。

3. Bitcoin DeFi supported by L2 will become a major growth trend

3、L2支持的比特币DeFi将成为主要增长趋势

Bitcoin is moving beyond its role as a store of value, with Layer 2 (L2) networks such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon, CoreDAO, etc. unlocking the potential of a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. These L2s enhance Bitcoin’s scalability and programmability, enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to flourish on the most secure and decentralized blockchain.

比特币正在超越其作为价值储存手段的角色，Stacks、BOB、Babylon、CoreDAO 等第 2 层 (L2) 网络释放了蓬勃发展的比特币 DeFi 生态系统的潜力。这些 L2 增强了比特币的可扩展性和可编程性，使去中心化金融 (DeFi) 应用程序能够在最安全和去中心化的区块链上蓬勃发展。

2024 is a year of transformation for Stacks, with the launch of the Nakamoto upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto upgrade allows Stacks to inherit 100% Bitcoin certainty and introduces faster block speeds, significantly improving the user experience. At the same time, the trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset sBTC launched in December enables seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, swapping, and staking - all based on the security of Bitcoin.

2024 年是 Stacks 转型的一年，推出了 Nakamoto 升级和 sBTC。中本聪的升级让Stacks继承了100%的比特币确定性，并引入了更快的出块速度，显着改善了用户体验。与此同时，去年 12 月推出的与比特币挂钩的去信任资产 sBTC 可以无缝参与借贷、交换和质押等 DeFi 活动——所有这些都基于比特币的安全性。

Previously, Bitcoin holders seeking DeFi opportunities were forced to move their Bitcoin to other networks such as Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians such as WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2 reduces these risks and provides a more decentralized alternative that allows Bitcoin to run natively in its own ecosystem.

此前，寻求 DeFi 机会的比特币持有者被迫将比特币转移到以太坊等其他网络。这一过程依赖于 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化托管机构，使用户面临中心化和审查风险。比特币 L2 降低了这些风险，并提供了一种更加去中心化的替代方案，允许比特币在自己的生态系统中本地运行。

Looking ahead to 2025, Bitcoin DeFi will grow exponentially. I predict that the total value locked (TVL) on Bitcoin L2 will exceed the $24 billion currently represented by wrapped Bitcoin derivatives, which is about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply. As Bitcoin's market cap reaches $2 trillion, the L2 network will enable users to unlock this huge potential value more securely and efficiently, solidifying Bitcoin's position as the cornerstone of decentralized finance.

展望 2025 年，比特币 DeFi 将呈指数级增长。我预测，比特币 L2 的锁定总价值 (TVL) 将超过目前打包的比特币衍生品所代表的 240 亿美元，约占比特币总供应量的 1.2%。随着比特币市值达到2万亿美元，L2网络将使用户能够更安全、高效地释放这一巨大的潜在价值，巩固比特币作为去中心化金融基石的地位。

4. Bitcoin ETFs will continue to proliferate, and new cryptocurrency-focused ETFs will emerge

4.比特币ETF将继续激增，新的以加密货币为重点的ETF将会出现

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a historic milestone, becoming the most successful ETF debut in history. These ETFs attracted more than $108 billion in assets under management (AUM) in their first year, demonstrating unparalleled demand from retail and institutional investors. Major players such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest have played a key role in bringing regulated

现货比特币 ETF 的推出标志着一个历史性的里程碑，成为历史上最成功的 ETF 首次亮相。这些 ETF 第一年就吸引了超过 1080 亿美元的管理资产 (AUM)，显示出散户和机构投资者无与伦比的需求。贝莱德 (BlackRock)、富达 (Fidelity) 和方舟投资 (Ark Invest) 等主要参与者在引入监管方面发挥了关键作用。