明年加密貨幣領域可能發生的 7 件大事

總的來說，這些里程碑鞏固了 2024 年加密產業證明自己是全球舞台上一股不可阻擋的力量。

This article provides seven predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, based on key developments and trends observed in 2024. These predictions cover various aspects of the crypto ecosystem, including regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the performance of major cryptocurrencies.

本文根據 2024 年觀察到的主要發展和趨勢，對 2025 年加密貨幣產業提出了七項預測。

1. A major country in the G7 or BRICS will establish and announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve

1. G7或金磚國家中的一個主要國家將建立並宣布比特幣戰略儲備

The Trump administration's proposal to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) for the U.S. has sparked much debate and speculation. While adding Bitcoin to the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet would require considerable political will and congressional approval, the mere fact of proposing the initiative has far-reaching implications.

川普政府關於為美國建立戰略比特幣儲備（SBR）的提議引發了許多爭論和猜測。雖然將比特幣添加到美國財政部的資產負債表中需要相當大的政治意願和國會的批准，但提出這項措施本身就具有深遠的影響。

By signaling the possibility of an SBR, the United States is effectively inviting other major countries to consider similar initiatives. Game theory suggests that these countries may be incentivized to take preemptive action, potentially securing a strategic advantage in diversifying their national reserves before the United States does. Bitcoin’s limited supply and its emerging role as a digital store of value may heighten the urgency for countries to act quickly.

透過暗示建立戰略商業夥伴關係的可能性，美國實際上是在邀請其他主要國家考慮類似的舉措。博弈論表明，這些國家可能會採取先發制人的行動，從而有可能在美國之前獲得實現國家儲備多元化的戰略優勢。比特幣的供應有限及其作為數位價值儲存手段的新興作用可能會加劇各國迅速採取行動的緊迫性。

Now, a "who is the first" race is underway to see which major country will be the first to include Bitcoin in its national reserves, holding Bitcoin like gold, foreign exchange and government bonds, and diversifying its asset allocation. This move will not only consolidate Bitcoin's position as a global reserve asset, but may also reshape the international financial landscape and have a profound impact on the economic and geopolitical power structure. The establishment of strategic Bitcoin reserves by any major economy may mark the beginning of a new era of sovereign wealth management.

現在，一場「誰是第一個」的競賽正在展開，看哪個大國將第一個將比特幣納入國家儲備，像持有黃金、外匯和國債一樣持有比特幣，實現資產配置多元化。此舉不僅將鞏固比特幣作為全球儲備資產的地位，還可能重塑國際金融格局，並對經濟和地緣政治權力結構產生深遠影響。任何主要經濟體建立比特幣戰略儲備都可能標誌著主權財富管理新時代的開始。

2. Stablecoins will continue to grow, doubling to over $400 billion

2. 穩定幣將持續成長，翻倍至超過 4,000 億美元

Stablecoins have become one of the most successful mainstream use cases for cryptocurrencies, building a bridge between the traditional financial and cryptocurrency ecosystems. Millions of people around the world use stablecoins for remittances, daily transactions, and to hedge against local currency fluctuations by leveraging the relative stability of the U.S. dollar.

穩定幣已成為加密貨幣最成功的主流用例之一，在傳統金融和加密貨幣生態系統之間架起了一座橋樑。全球數百萬人使用穩定幣進行匯款、日常交易，並利用美元的相對穩定性來對沖本幣波動。

Stablecoins in circulation reach an all-time high of $200 billion in 2024, with market leaders Tether and Circle. These digital currencies rely on blockchain networks such as Ethereum, Solana, and Tron to facilitate seamless, borderless transactions.

流通中的穩定幣將在 2024 年達到 2,000 億美元的歷史新高，市場領導者是 Tether 和 Circle。這些數位貨幣依賴以太坊、Solana 和 Tron 等區塊鏈網路來促進無縫、無邊界的交易。

Looking ahead, stablecoin growth is expected to accelerate by 2025, potentially doubling to over $400 billion. This growth will be fueled by the passage of stablecoin-specific legislation, which could provide much-needed regulatory clarity and foster innovation in the industry. U.S. regulators are increasingly recognizing the strategic importance of stablecoins in strengthening the U.S. dollar’s global dominance and cementing its status as the world’s reserve currency.

展望未來，穩定幣成長預計將在 2025 年加速，可能翻一番，達到 4,000 億美元以上。這種增長將由穩定幣特定立法的通過推動，這可以提供急需的監管清晰度並促進行業創新。美國監管機構越來越認識到穩定幣在加強美元全球主導地位和鞏固其世界儲備貨幣地位方面的戰略重要性。

3. Bitcoin DeFi supported by L2 will become a major growth trend

3.L2支援的比特幣DeFi將成為主要成長趨勢

Bitcoin is moving beyond its role as a store of value, with Layer 2 (L2) networks such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon, CoreDAO, etc. unlocking the potential of a thriving Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. These L2s enhance Bitcoin’s scalability and programmability, enabling decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to flourish on the most secure and decentralized blockchain.

比特幣正在超越其作為價值儲存手段的角色，Stacks、BOB、Babylon、CoreDAO 等第 2 層 (L2) 網路釋放了蓬勃發展的比特幣 DeFi 生態系統的潛力。這些 L2 增強了比特幣的可擴展性和可編程性，使去中心化金融 (DeFi) 應用程式能夠在最安全和去中心化的區塊鏈上蓬勃發展。

2024 is a year of transformation for Stacks, with the launch of the Nakamoto upgrade and sBTC. The Nakamoto upgrade allows Stacks to inherit 100% Bitcoin certainty and introduces faster block speeds, significantly improving the user experience. At the same time, the trustless Bitcoin-pegged asset sBTC launched in December enables seamless participation in DeFi activities such as lending, swapping, and staking - all based on the security of Bitcoin.

2024 年是 Stacks 轉型的一年，推出了 Nakamoto 升級和 sBTC。中本聰的升級讓Stacks繼承了100%的比特幣確定性，並引入了更快的出塊速度，顯著改善了用戶體驗。同時，去年 12 月推出的與比特幣掛鉤的去信任資產 sBTC 可以無縫參與借貸、交換和質押等 DeFi 活動——所有這些都基於比特幣的安全性。

Previously, Bitcoin holders seeking DeFi opportunities were forced to move their Bitcoin to other networks such as Ethereum. This process relied on centralized custodians such as WBTC (BitGo), BTCB (Binance), and cbBTC (Coinbase), exposing users to centralization and censorship risks. Bitcoin L2 reduces these risks and provides a more decentralized alternative that allows Bitcoin to run natively in its own ecosystem.

此前，尋求 DeFi 機會的比特幣持有者被迫將比特幣轉移到以太坊等其他網路。這個過程依賴 WBTC (BitGo)、BTCB (Binance) 和 cbBTC (Coinbase) 等中心化託管機構，使用戶面臨中心化和審查風險。比特幣 L2 降低了這些風險，並提供了一個更去中心化的替代方案，讓比特幣在自己的生態系統中可以本地運行。

Looking ahead to 2025, Bitcoin DeFi will grow exponentially. I predict that the total value locked (TVL) on Bitcoin L2 will exceed the $24 billion currently represented by wrapped Bitcoin derivatives, which is about 1.2% of the total Bitcoin supply. As Bitcoin's market cap reaches $2 trillion, the L2 network will enable users to unlock this huge potential value more securely and efficiently, solidifying Bitcoin's position as the cornerstone of decentralized finance.

展望 2025 年，比特幣 DeFi 將呈指數級增長。我預測，比特幣 L2 的鎖定總價值 (TVL) 將超過目前打包的比特幣衍生品所代表的 240 億美元，約佔比特幣總供應量的 1.2%。隨著比特幣市值達到2兆美元，L2網路將使用戶能夠更安全、高效地釋放這一巨大的潛在價值，鞏固比特幣作為去中心化金融基石的地位。

4. Bitcoin ETFs will continue to proliferate, and new cryptocurrency-focused ETFs will emerge

4.比特幣ETF將繼續激增，新的以加密貨幣為重點的ETF將出現

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a historic milestone, becoming the most successful ETF debut in history. These ETFs attracted more than $108 billion in assets under management (AUM) in their first year, demonstrating unparalleled demand from retail and institutional investors. Major players such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest have played a key role in bringing regulated

現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出標誌著一個歷史性的里程碑，成為史上最成功的 ETF 首次亮相。這些 ETF 第一年就吸引了超過 1,080 億美元的管理資產 (AUM)，顯示出散戶和機構投資者無與倫比的需求。貝萊德 (BlackRock)、富達 (Fidelity) 和方舟投資 (Ark Invest) 等主要參與者在引入監管方面發揮了關鍵作用。