灰度 GBTC 资金外流抑制了比特币的涨势，但预计未来将大幅上涨

灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）的大规模资金外流已成为比特币价格上涨的阻力。 GBTC 曾经是机构比特币敞口的热门工具，现在正在将其产品转换为现货比特币 ETF。这次抛售暂时增加了比特币的供应，减缓了上涨势头，并使价格低于历史高点。

Are Bitcoin Outflows from Grayscale's GBTC Weighing on the Rally?

Grayscale GBTC 的比特币流出是否会影响反弹？

Analysts are pointing the finger at massive outflows from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as a culprit for recent headwinds in Bitcoin's upward trajectory. But how long will this outflow pressure persist?

分析师指出，灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）的大规模资金外流是近期比特币上涨轨迹遇到阻力的罪魁祸首。但这种流出压力会持续多久？

GBTC, once the go-to vehicle for institutions seeking Bitcoin exposure, is currently unwinding and transitioning into a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, this conversion is having unintended consequences for Bitcoin's price momentum.

GBTC 曾经是寻求比特币投资的机构的首选工具，目前正在逐步转型为现货比特币 ETF。然而，这种转换对比特币的价格势头产生了意想不到的影响。

Outflows Stall Bitcoin's Upside

资金外流阻碍了比特币的上涨

As GBTC liquidates more Bitcoin, the upward momentum slows due to a temporary increase in supply. This has kept Bitcoin below its all-time high of around $73,737.

随着 GBTC 清算更多比特币，由于供应量暂时增加，上涨势头放缓。这使得比特币价格低于 73,737 美元左右的历史高点。

Lookonchain data reveals that Friday marked the fourth consecutive day of net negative flows for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with GBTC leading the charge. BlackRock, however, added a substantial $226 million worth of Bitcoin, exacerbating the outflow pressure.

Lookonchain 数据显示，周五是美国上市现货比特币 ETF 连续第四天出现净负流量，其中 GBTC 处于领先地位。然而贝莱德却大量增持了价值2.26亿美元的比特币，加剧了资金外流压力。

BlackRock's Role

贝莱德的角色

Despite continued inflows from BlackRock and other top spot Bitcoin ETF issuers, there has been persistent outflow over the past week. The 7-day net inflow stood at 8,179 BTC, or -$516.7 million, by March 22.

尽管贝莱德和其他顶级比特币 ETF 发行人持续流入资金，但过去一周资金持续流出。截至 3 月 22 日，7 天净流入量为 8,179 BTC，即 5.167 亿美元。

This accelerated redemption has coincided with a drop in Bitcoin's price, reaching a low of $62,300 on Friday before stabilizing over the weekend.

这种加速赎回恰逢比特币价格下跌，周五跌至 62,300 美元的低点，然后在周末稳定下来。

Genesis Liquidation Rumors

Genesis 清算传闻

Coinbase Institutional analysts speculate that Genesis, the bankrupt crypto lender, may be liquidating its GBTC holdings. The exact amount of GBTC held by Genesis remains unknown, but if they are unwinding at spot or over-the-counter exchanges, it could have a ripple effect on Bitcoin's price.

Coinbase 机构分析师推测，破产的加密货币贷款机构 Genesis 可能正在清算其持有的 GBTC。 Genesis 持有的 GBTC 的确切数量仍不清楚，但如果它们在现货或场外交易所平仓，可能会对比特币的价格产生连锁反应。

GBTC's Unwinding: A Double-Edged Sword

GBTC 的解绑：一把双刃剑

For Bitcoin holders, the liquidation of GBTC is a double-edged sword. While it's contributing to the current outflow pressure, it's also reducing GBTC's total Bitcoin holdings.

对于比特币持有者来说，GBTC的清算是一把双刃剑。虽然它加剧了当前的资金外流压力，但也减少了 GBTC 的比特币总持有量。

By Friday, GBTC controlled 355,759 BTC, having liquidated 5,900 BTC from Thursday. This suggests that Grayscale has liquidated roughly half of its total haul from January 2024.

截至周五，GBTC 控制了 355,759 BTC，从周四开始清算了 5,900 BTC。这表明自 2024 年 1 月起，Grayscale 已清算了其总交易量的大约一半。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Buying the Dip

现货比特币 ETF 逢低买入

As GBTC liquidates, other issuers, including BlackRock, have been accelerating their purchases on behalf of clients. This suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs are taking advantage of the dip.

随着 GBTC 清算，包括贝莱德在内的其他发行人一直在加速代表客户购买。这表明现货比特币 ETF 正在利用下跌的机会。

Halving Event and Grayscale's Motivation

减半事件及灰度的动机

Once Grayscale fully unwinds GBTC and converts into a spot Bitcoin ETF, BTC prices are likely to rally even higher, breaking above $74,000. This is especially true considering the impending BTC halving event in April, which will reduce the supply of new BTC by 50%.

一旦灰度完全解约 GBTC 并转换为现货比特币 ETF，BTC 价格可能会进一步上涨，突破 74,000 美元。考虑到 4 月份即将到来的 BTC 减半事件尤其如此，这将使新 BTC 的供应量减少 50%。

Perhaps Grayscale's sudden sell-off is motivated by this upcoming halving event, as the firm seeks to reposition itself as a spot Bitcoin ETF before the supply shock.

也许灰度的突然抛售是由即将到来的减半事件推动的，因为该公司寻求在供应冲击之前将自己重新定位为现货比特币 ETF。

BlackRock: Potential Largest BTC Holder

贝莱德：潜在最大的比特币持有者

If the outflow from GBTC continues at an accelerated pace, BlackRock could emerge as the largest BTC holder among all spot BTC ETFs in the United States.

如果 GBTC 的资金继续加速流出，贝莱德可能会成为美国所有现货 BTC ETF 中最大的 BTC 持有者。