政府没收比特币：投资者在经济衰退中面临迫在眉睫的危机

链上分析师 Willy Woo 对美国陷入衰退时散户比特币投资者的安全表示担忧。他将当前市场与美国政府从公众手中夺取黄金的大萧条时期进行了比较。吴质疑比特币是否会出现类似的情况，从而可能给散户投资者带来严重后果。然而，这一举措的成功很大程度上取决于比特币存储，其中 87% 的比特币存放在自我托管钱包中，提供了一些保护。

Government Bitcoin Confiscation: Implications for Investors in Economic Downturn

政府没收比特币：经济低迷时期对投资者的影响

As the United States grapples with economic uncertainty, concerns have emerged regarding the fate of Bitcoin investors if the government initiates a confiscation of the cryptocurrency.

随着美国应对经济不确定性，人们开始担心如果政府没收比特币，比特币投资者的命运将会如何。

Analyst Willy Woo, citing historical precedents, warns that while institutional investors, known as "whales," possess significant resilience due to their control over private keys, retail investors face a potentially dire situation.

分析师 Willy Woo 援引历史先例警告说，虽然被称为“鲸鱼”的机构投资者由于对私钥的控制而拥有巨大的弹性，但散户投资者却面临着潜在的可怕局面。

Historical Analogies and Government Actions

历史类比和政府行为

Woo draws parallels to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the U.S. government seized gold from the public to replenish national reserves. This event, he suggests, could foreshadow a similar scenario with Bitcoin in the event of a severe economic downturn.

Woo 将其与 1930 年代的大萧条进行了比较，当时美国政府从公众手中夺取黄金以补充国家储备。他认为，这一事件可能预示着在经济严重衰退时比特币也会出现类似的情况。

The potential consequences for retail investors could be profound, as their ability to access and control their assets may be severely curtailed.

对于散户投资者来说，潜在的后果可能是深远的，因为他们获取和控制资产的能力可能会被严重削弱。

Bitcoin Storage and Custody

比特币存储和托管

The location of Bitcoin holdings is a critical factor in determining the potential impact of government confiscation. According to Woo, an overwhelming majority (87%) of Bitcoin is held in self-custody wallets, giving individuals sole control over private keys and transaction signing.

比特币持有地点是确定政府没收潜在影响的关键因素。 Woo 表示，绝大多数（87%）的比特币都存放在自我托管钱包中，使个人能够完全控制私钥和交易签名。

This self-custody model provides a degree of protection against government seizure, as private keys are not held by a third party.

这种自我托管模式提供了一定程度的保护，防止政府扣押，因为私钥不由第三方持有。

By contrast, approximately 1% of Bitcoin is held by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers, primarily in the United States. These issuers actively acquire BTC from exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) markets to satisfy investor demand.

相比之下，大约 1% 的比特币由现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 发行人持有，主要是在美国。这些发行人积极从交易所和场外交易（OTC）市场收购比特币，以满足投资者的需求。

While spot ETF issuers offer competitive rates, they retain custody of the underlying Bitcoin, potentially exposing investors to seizure risk in the event of government intervention.

虽然现货 ETF 发行人提供具有竞争力的利率，但他们保留了基础比特币的托管权，这可能会让投资者在政府干预的情况下面临扣押风险。

Centralized Exchanges and Active Trading

中心化交易所，交易活跃

Another 12% of Bitcoin is held on centralized exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken. These holdings typically belong to active traders or investors who require frequent liquidity.

另外 12% 的比特币存放在 Binance、Coinbase 和 Kraken 等中心化交易所上。这些资产通常属于需要频繁流动性的活跃交易者或投资者。

Centralized exchanges do not provide users with direct control over private keys, allowing for the possibility of government seizure or freezing of accounts. However, active traders may be able to liquidate their Bitcoin holdings for alternative assets, such as fiat currencies or stablecoins, mitigating the impact of confiscation.

中心化交易所不为用户提供对私钥的直接控制，从而导致政府可能扣押或冻结账户。然而，活跃的交易者可能能够将其持有的比特币变现为替代资产，例如法定货币或稳定币，从而减轻没收的影响。

Whale Concentration and Retail Investor Vulnerability

鲸鱼集中度和散户投资者的脆弱性

Despite the prevalence of self-custody wallets, Woo cautions that whales, with their immense holdings, disproportionately utilize this storage method. Consequently, retail investors, who constitute the majority of BTC holders (over 65%), tend to keep their assets on centralized exchanges.

尽管自我托管钱包很流行，但吴警告说，拥有大量资产的鲸鱼不成比例地使用这种存储方法。因此，占 BTC 持有者大多数（超过 65%）的散户投资者倾向于将资产存放在中心化交易所。

This disparity creates a significant vulnerability for retail investors in the event of government confiscation, as their centralized holdings could be easily targeted.

如果政府没收，这种差异会给散户投资者带来很大的脆弱性，因为他们的集中持有的资产很容易成为目标。

Impact of Economic Downturn

经济衰退的影响

The rising inflation and declining GDP data in the United States have raised concerns about a potential recession. Such an economic downturn could exacerbate the risks associated with government Bitcoin confiscation.

美国通胀上升和GDP数据下降引发了人们对潜在衰退的担忧。这种经济衰退可能会加剧与政府没收比特币相关的风险。

With the Federal Reserve set to announce interest rate decisions this week, investors will be closely monitoring the economic outlook and its implications for the cryptocurrency market.

随着美联储将于本周宣布利率决定，投资者将密切关注经济前景及其对加密货币市场的影响。

Conclusion

结论

The potential for government Bitcoin confiscation poses a significant threat to retail investors, particularly those holding their assets on centralized exchanges. While self-custody wallets provide a degree of protection, whales dominate this storage method, leaving retail investors disproportionately vulnerable.

政府没收比特币的可能性对散户投资者，特别是那些在中心化交易所持有资产的投资者构成了重大威胁。虽然自我托管钱包提供了一定程度的保护，但鲸鱼在这种存储方法中占据主导地位，使散户投资者异常脆弱。

As economic uncertainty persists, it remains essential for investors to carefully consider their storage options and the potential risks associated with government intervention.

由于经济不确定性持续存在，投资者仍然必须仔细考虑其存储选择以及与政府干预相关的潜在风险。