黄金设定在2025年超过3,000美元

通过交易量的全球第二大加密货币交易所Bybit发布了其最新的Bybit Commocity Insight报告。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit has released its latest Commodity Insight Report. The report provides key insights into the macroeconomic and geopolitical trends driving gold’s bullish trajectory, examining the factors that could push the precious metal to new all-time highs.

Bybit通过交易量通过交易量的全球第二大加密货币交易所发布了其最新的商品见解报告。该报告提供了对驱动黄金看涨轨迹的宏观经济和地缘政治趋势的关键见解，研究了可能将贵金属推向新历史高峰的因素。

Despite a stellar run in 2024, which saw gold prices rally to their highest levels since early 2023, some analysts believe that the yellow metal could go even higher in the coming year.

尽管2024年的出色表现，但黄金价格升至自2023年初以来的最高水平，但一些分析师认为，黄金金属在来年可能会更高。

According to Bybit, several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are setting the stage for gold to potentially surge above the $3,000 mark in 2025.

据BYBIT称，几个宏观经济和地缘政治因素为黄金的阶段奠定了基础，使其在2025年的3,000美元以下可能会激增。

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

这是报告的一些关键要点：

Macroeconomic Drivers

宏观经济驱动力

With inflation projected to remain above the 2% throughout 2025, gold continues to serve as a hedge against declining purchasing power. As a result, consumer demand for goods and services remains a key driver of interest in the precious metal. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates during the year, which could further increase demand for gold. Lower real interest rates make gold more attractive than fixed-income assets, leading to increased capital flows into the metal.

由于通货膨胀预计在整个2025年将保持在2％以上，因此黄金继续作为对冲，可抵抗下降的购买力。结果，消费者对商品和服务的需求仍然是贵金属感兴趣的主要驱动力。此外，预计美联储将在这一年中降低利率，这可能会进一步增加对黄金的需求。较低的实际利率使黄金比固定收益资产更具吸引力，从而导致资本流入金属。

"The year started with expectations of two to three Fed rate cuts by year-end, although inflation remaining sticky could lead to slower-than-anticipated rate cuts. Nevertheless, lower real interest rates are expected to render gold more attractive than fixed-income assets, ultimately increasing capital flows into the metal. As a result, we anticipate higher lows in gold prices in 2024, setting the stage for a potential surge above the $3,000 mark," the report said.

“这一年始于年终的两到三个美联储降低的期望，尽管通货膨胀率持续的粘性可能会导致降低的降低速度降低。但是，预计较低的实际利率将使金黄金具有比固定收益资产的吸引力，最终比固定收入的资产更具吸引力，最终将资本增加到金属中，因此，在2024年的金属价格上，我们预计了$ 3的阶段，估计了$ 3的阶段，$ 3级的估计要高于3级的高度衡量范围。

Geopolitical Uncertainty

地缘政治不确定性

Ongoing conflicts and global instability are reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Throughout history, gold has outperformed during periods of geopolitical stress, as investors tend to seek refuge in the precious metal during times of uncertainty.

持续的冲突和全球不稳定正在加强黄金的安全吸引力。在整个历史上，在地缘政治压力期间，黄金在不确定性时期倾向于在贵金属中寻求庇护。

Currently, with the Russia-Ukraine war showing no signs of abating and several geopolitical hotbeds simmering, the environment suggests that this trend will continue in 2025.

目前，由于俄罗斯 - 乌克兰战争没有任何减弱的迹象和几个地缘政治温床的迹象，因此环境表明，这种趋势将在2025年持续。

Central Bank Accumulation

中央银行积累

In 2024, central banks purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold, a trend that is expected to persist in 2025 as countries like China and Russia diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This steady accumulation is supporting gold prices and limiting downside risk.

2024年，中央银行购买了超过1,000公吨的黄金，这一趋势预计将在2025年持续存在，因为中国和俄罗斯等国家从美元上多样化。这种稳定的积累在支持黄金价格和限制下行风险。

"Having largely completed their post-Soviet Union sell-off of gold reserves in the 1990s, central banks are now net purchasers of the metal. In 2024, central banks reportedly purchased a record 1,120 metric tons of gold, continuing a trend that began in 2019. This marks the ninth consecutive year of net purchases by central banks, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Notably, China and Russia, which have been diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, were among the largest purchasers of gold in 2024, buying 198 and 188 metric tons, respectively," the report noted.

"Having largely completed their post-Soviet Union sell-off of gold reserves in the 1990s, central banks are now net purchasers of the metal. In 2024, central banks reportedly purchased a record 1,120 metric tons of gold, continuing a trend that began in 2019. This marks the ninth consecutive year of net purchases by central banks, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Notably, China and Russia, which have been报告指出，分别是2024年最大的黄金购买者之一，分别购买了198吨和188公吨。”

Technical Strength & Market Sentiment

技术实力和市场情绪

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with key resistance levels in focus. A break above the $3,000 psychological barrier could trigger a burst of buying activity and lead to a rally towards the next target at $3,300.

黄金仍然处于强大的上升趋势中，关键阻力水平处于重点。超过3,000美元的心理障碍的突破可能会引发一系列的购买活动，并导致下一个目标的集会，价格为3,300美元。

Moreover, ETF inflows remain healthy, indicating sustained interest from institutional investors, while rising futures positions suggest that traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the metal.

此外，ETF流入仍然健康，表明机构投资者持续了兴趣，而期货的上升职位表明，交易者越来越对金属看涨。

Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank activity, and technical indicators suggest that gold could be poised to move higher in 2025, potentially reaching levels above $3,000. However, it's important to note that this prediction is based on the analysis of available data and trends at the time of writing.

总体而言，宏观经济的背景，地缘政治不确定性，中央银行活动和技术指标表明，黄金可以在2025年提高增长，可能达到3,000美元以上的水平。但是，重要的是要注意，该预测基于对撰写本文时对可用数据和趋势的分析。

For a deeper analysis of these trends, access the full Bybit Commodity Insight Report from Bybit.

要对这些趋势进行更深入的分析，请访问Bybit的完整Bybit商品洞察报告。