黃金設定在2025年超過3,000美元

通過交易量的全球第二大加密貨幣交易所Bybit發布了其最新的Bybit Commocity Insight報告。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit has released its latest Commodity Insight Report. The report provides key insights into the macroeconomic and geopolitical trends driving gold’s bullish trajectory, examining the factors that could push the precious metal to new all-time highs.

Bybit通過交易量通過交易量的全球第二大加密貨幣交易所發布了其最新的商品見解報告。該報告提供了對驅動黃金看漲軌蹟的宏觀經濟和地緣政治趨勢的關鍵見解，研究了可能將貴金屬推向新歷史高峰的因素。

Despite a stellar run in 2024, which saw gold prices rally to their highest levels since early 2023, some analysts believe that the yellow metal could go even higher in the coming year.

儘管2024年的出色表現，但黃金價格升至自2023年初以來的最高水平，但一些分析師認為，黃金金屬在來年可能會更高。

According to Bybit, several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are setting the stage for gold to potentially surge above the $3,000 mark in 2025.

據BYBIT稱，幾個宏觀經濟和地緣政治因素為黃金的階段奠定了基礎，使其在2025年的3,000美元以下可能會激增。

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

這是報告的一些關鍵要點：

Macroeconomic Drivers

宏觀經濟驅動力

With inflation projected to remain above the 2% throughout 2025, gold continues to serve as a hedge against declining purchasing power. As a result, consumer demand for goods and services remains a key driver of interest in the precious metal. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates during the year, which could further increase demand for gold. Lower real interest rates make gold more attractive than fixed-income assets, leading to increased capital flows into the metal.

由於通貨膨脹預計在整個2025年將保持在2％以上，因此黃金繼續作為對沖，可抵抗下降的購買力。結果，消費者對商品和服務的需求仍然是貴金屬感興趣的主要驅動力。此外，預計美聯儲將在這一年中降低利率，這可能會進一步增加對黃金的需求。較低的實際利率使黃金比固定收益資產更具吸引力，從而導致資本流入金屬。

"The year started with expectations of two to three Fed rate cuts by year-end, although inflation remaining sticky could lead to slower-than-anticipated rate cuts. Nevertheless, lower real interest rates are expected to render gold more attractive than fixed-income assets, ultimately increasing capital flows into the metal. As a result, we anticipate higher lows in gold prices in 2024, setting the stage for a potential surge above the $3,000 mark," the report said.

“這一年始於年終的兩到三個美聯儲降低的期望，儘管通貨膨脹率持續的粘性可能會導致降低的降低速度降低。但是，預計較低的實際利率將使金黃金具有比固定收益資產的吸引力，最終比固定收入的資產更具吸引力，最終將資本增加到金屬中，因此，在2024年的金屬價格上，我們預計了$ 3的階段，估計了$ 3的階段，$ 3級的估計要高於3級的高度衡量範圍。

Geopolitical Uncertainty

地緣政治不確定性

Ongoing conflicts and global instability are reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal. Throughout history, gold has outperformed during periods of geopolitical stress, as investors tend to seek refuge in the precious metal during times of uncertainty.

持續的衝突和全球不穩定正在加強黃金的安全吸引力。在整個歷史上，在地緣政治壓力期間，黃金在不確定性時期傾向於在貴金屬中尋求庇護。

Currently, with the Russia-Ukraine war showing no signs of abating and several geopolitical hotbeds simmering, the environment suggests that this trend will continue in 2025.

目前，由於俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭戰爭沒有任何減弱的跡象和幾個地緣政治溫床的跡象，因此環境表明，這種趨勢將在2025年持續。

Central Bank Accumulation

中央銀行積累

In 2024, central banks purchased over 1,000 metric tons of gold, a trend that is expected to persist in 2025 as countries like China and Russia diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This steady accumulation is supporting gold prices and limiting downside risk.

2024年，中央銀行購買了超過1,000公噸的黃金，這一趨勢預計將在2025年持續存在，因為中國和俄羅斯等國家從美元上多樣化。這種穩定的積累在支持黃金價格和限制下行風險。

"Having largely completed their post-Soviet Union sell-off of gold reserves in the 1990s, central banks are now net purchasers of the metal. In 2024, central banks reportedly purchased a record 1,120 metric tons of gold, continuing a trend that began in 2019. This marks the ninth consecutive year of net purchases by central banks, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Notably, China and Russia, which have been diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, were among the largest purchasers of gold in 2024, buying 198 and 188 metric tons, respectively," the report noted.

“在1990年代，中央銀行在很大程度上完成了蘇聯後的黃金儲備，現在是金屬的淨購買者。據報導，央行在2024年購買了創紀錄的1,120公噸黃金，持續了一個趨勢，始於2019年。這標誌著中國銀行連續的紐約市群島及其紐約市的紐約市（Worl Corlsiia），這是世界上的紐約市該報告指出，Dollar是2024年最大的黃金購買者之一，分別購買了198噸和188噸。”

Technical Strength & Market Sentiment

技術實力和市場情緒

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with key resistance levels in focus. A break above the $3,000 psychological barrier could trigger a burst of buying activity and lead to a rally towards the next target at $3,300.

黃金仍然處於強大的上升趨勢中，關鍵阻力水平處於重點。超過3,000美元的心理障礙的突破可能會引發一系列的購買活動，並導致下一個目標的集會，價格為3,300美元。

Moreover, ETF inflows remain healthy, indicating sustained interest from institutional investors, while rising futures positions suggest that traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the metal.

此外，ETF流入仍然健康，表明機構投資者持續了興趣，而期貨的上升職位表明，交易者越來越對金屬看漲。

Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop, geopolitical uncertainty, central bank activity, and technical indicators suggest that gold could be poised to move higher in 2025, potentially reaching levels above $3,000. However, it's important to note that this prediction is based on the analysis of available data and trends at the time of writing.

總體而言，宏觀經濟的背景，地緣政治不確定性，中央銀行活動和技術指標表明，黃金可以在2025年提高增長，可能達到3,000美元以上的水平。但是，重要的是要注意，該預測基於對撰寫本文時對可用數據和趨勢的分析。

For a deeper analysis of these trends, access the full Bybit Commodity Insight Report from Bybit.

要對這些趨勢進行更深入的分析，請訪問Bybit的完整Bybit商品洞察報告。