德国大选可能会改变比特币游戏

至少可以这么说，欧洲当局对比特币并不利于比特币，但是​​德国大选可以改变比赛。

The European authorities are not very favorable to bitcoin, to say the least, but the German election could change the game.

至少可以这么说，欧洲当局对比特币并不利于比特币，但是​​德国大选可以改变比赛。

The Germans punish Olaf Scholz

德国人惩罚奥拉夫·索尔兹

The result of the German election was highly anticipated given the economic difficulties caused by the decision to forgo Russian gas.

鉴于决定放弃俄罗斯天然气造成的经济困难，德国大选的结果备受期待。

Initially scheduled for September 28, 2025, the election was brought forward due to the collapse of the government coalition led by the Greens, the SPD socialists, and the liberals of the small FDP party.

最初定于2025年9月28日举行，由于由绿党，SPD社会主义者和小型FDP党的自由党领导的政府联盟的崩溃而提出了选举。

This time, it was the traditional center-right alliance CDU/CSU that prevailed, trailed by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, equivalent to the National Rally in France.

这次，由替代FürDeutschland（AFD）党的传统中央联盟CDU/CSU盛行，相当于法国国家集会。

Whereas the outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD party won 206 seats in 2021, it now holds only 120. Conversely, the AfD goes from 83 to 152 seats. CDU/CSU takes the lead with 208 seats.

即将离任的总理Olaf Scholz的SPD派对在2021年赢得了206个席位，但现在仅持有120个席位。相反，AFD从83个席位到152个席位。 CDU/CSU以208个席位领先。

In the German federal electoral system, a single party or parliamentary group rarely wins an absolute majority in the Bundestag. The CDU/CSU only secured 28.5% of the seats, meaning Germany will once again have to negotiate a coalition government.

在德国联邦选举制度中，单个政党或议会团体在联邦政府中很少赢得绝对多数席位。 CDU/CSU仅获得了28.5％的席位，这意味着德国将再次不得不谈判联合政府。

Given the results, the exercise will be difficult due to the “Brandmauer”: the promise of traditional parties not to form a coalition with the AfD. Thus, we should expect many weeks, if not months, of political bargaining.

鉴于结果，由于“ Brandmauer”：传统各方不与AFD结成联盟的承诺，这项练习将很困难。因此，我们应该期望政治讨价还价数周（即使不是几个月）。

A pro-bitcoin coalition?

亲甲币联盟？

Bitcoin was one of the sticking points for Olaf Scholz’s coalition. The president of the Liberal FDP party Christian Lindner harshly criticized the chancellor for having sold more than 50,000 bitcoins at an average price of 57,600 dollars last summer.

比特币是奥拉夫·索尔兹（Olaf Scholz）联盟的杰出点之一。自由党FDP党的总统克里斯蒂安·林德纳（Christian Lindner）严厉批评总理，他于去年夏天以57,600美元的平均价格出售了50,000多个比特币。

The FDP advocates a policy similar to that of the United States. Unfortunately, with less than 5%, the FDP will be absent from the next Bundestag. In contrast, with nearly 21% of the seats, the AfD could have a say, which is potentially good news for bitcoin.

FDP倡导一项与美国类似的政策。不幸的是，下一个联盟省将缺少FDP的不足5％。相比之下，AFD可能有近21％的席位，这对于比特币来说是个好消息。

The AfD supports non-draconian regulation, the elimination of capital gains tax, and opposes CBDCs. Knowing that German legislation is already much more favorable than in France since holding bitcoins for more than a year avoids the tax.

AFD支持非多克尼亚法规，消除资本利得税，并反对CBDC。知道德国立法已经比法国更有利，因为持有比特币超过一年可以避免税收。

Given Elon Musk‘s open support for the AfD, it is likely that his position regarding bitcoin will mirror that of the United States. Knowing that Washington has some very good surprises in store on that front.

鉴于埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对AFD的公开支持，他对比特币的立场很可能会反映美国的地位。知道华盛顿在这方面有一些非常好的惊喜。

There are rumors that Donald Trump’s government will create a national reserve of bitcoins while abolishing capital gains tax. And this is after already allowing banks to hold bitcoins on behalf of their clients.

有传言说，唐纳德·特朗普的政府将在废除资本利得税的同时创建一个国家的比特币储备。这是在允许银行代表其客户持有比特币之后。

Another telling sign is that most members of the Trump government own bitcoins. What do they know that we don’t…

另一个有说服力的信号是，特朗普政府的大多数人都拥有比特币。他们知道我们不知道什么...

Who will be the next chancellor?

谁将成为下一个总理？

Friedrich Merz, a former business lawyer and multimillionaire banker. His time at BlackRock is encouraging since the giant investment fund is extremely favorable to bitcoin. His membership on the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum is less thrilling.

弗里德里希·梅尔斯（Friedrich Merz）是前商业律师和千万富翁银行家。他在贝莱克（Blackrock）的时光令人鼓舞，因为巨头投资基金对比特币极为有利。他在世界经济论坛董事会上的会员资格并不那么激动。

It will all depend on the colors of the coalition government. Mr. Merz notably sparked controversy two weeks ago after relying on the AfD to pass immigration restrictions. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to protest.

这完全取决于联合政府的颜色。梅尔斯先生在依靠AFD通过移民限制后，引发了两周前引发争议。成千上万的人上街抗议。

And although he has promised not to form a coalition with the AfD, less than half of German voters believe it according to The Economist. Indeed, allying with the SPD already seems out of the question.

尽管他已承诺不要与AFD结成联盟，但不到一半的德国选民认为这是经济学家的说法。确实，与SPD的盟友似乎已经不可能了。

The second option would be to form a large coalition which could prove fragile. Mr. Merz hopes to conclude negotiations by Easter (April 20). The third option would be to enter into an alliance with the AfD.

第二种选择是组建一个可能证明脆弱的大联盟。梅尔斯先生希望在复活节之前（4月20日）结束谈判。第三种选择是与AFD结盟。

After all, Mr. Merz stated that he could envision working closely with Giorgia Meloni who is well to the right of the political spectrum. Not to mention that the United States will exert pressure in favor of the AfD.

毕竟，梅尔斯先生说，他可以设想与乔治·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）紧密合作，后者符合政治范围的权利。更不用说美国会为AFD施加压力。

As things unfold, all eyes turn to Washington and its strategic reserve of bitcoins. How could Europe remain idle if the Americans embrace bitcoin?

随着事情的发展，所有人的目光都转向华盛顿及其战略性比特币储备。如果美国人拥护比特币，欧洲如何保持闲置？

On the French side, things remain at a standstill, to put it politely. Our article on the subject: Bitcoin: France ridicules itself a little more

在法国方面，一切都停滞不前，以礼貌地说。我们有关该主题的文章：比特币：法国嘲笑自己

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Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist

比特币，地缘政治，经济和能源记者