德國大選可能會改變比特幣遊戲

至少可以這麼說，歐洲當局對比特幣並不利於比特幣，但是​​德國大選可以改變比賽。

The European authorities are not very favorable to bitcoin, to say the least, but the German election could change the game.

至少可以這麼說，歐洲當局對比特幣並不利於比特幣，但是​​德國大選可以改變比賽。

The Germans punish Olaf Scholz

德國人懲罰奧拉夫·索爾茲

The result of the German election was highly anticipated given the economic difficulties caused by the decision to forgo Russian gas.

鑑於決定放棄俄羅斯天然氣造成的經濟困難，德國大選的結果備受期待。

Initially scheduled for September 28, 2025, the election was brought forward due to the collapse of the government coalition led by the Greens, the SPD socialists, and the liberals of the small FDP party.

最初定於2025年9月28日舉行，由於由綠黨，SPD社會主義者和小型FDP黨的自由黨領導的政府聯盟的崩潰而提出了選舉。

This time, it was the traditional center-right alliance CDU/CSU that prevailed, trailed by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, equivalent to the National Rally in France.

這次，由替代FürDeutschland（AFD）黨的傳統中央聯盟CDU/CSU盛行，相當於法國國家集會。

Whereas the outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD party won 206 seats in 2021, it now holds only 120. Conversely, the AfD goes from 83 to 152 seats. CDU/CSU takes the lead with 208 seats.

即將離任的總理Olaf Scholz的SPD派對在2021年贏得了206個席位，但現在僅持有120個席位。相反，AFD從83個席位到152個席位。 CDU/CSU以208個席位領先。

In the German federal electoral system, a single party or parliamentary group rarely wins an absolute majority in the Bundestag. The CDU/CSU only secured 28.5% of the seats, meaning Germany will once again have to negotiate a coalition government.

在德國聯邦選舉制度中，單個政黨或議會團體在聯邦政府中很少贏得絕對多數席位。 CDU/CSU僅獲得了28.5％的席位，這意味著德國將再次不得不談判聯合政府。

Given the results, the exercise will be difficult due to the “Brandmauer”: the promise of traditional parties not to form a coalition with the AfD. Thus, we should expect many weeks, if not months, of political bargaining.

鑑於結果，由於“ Brandmauer”：傳統各方不與AFD結成聯盟的承諾，這項練習將很困難。因此，我們應該期望政治討價還價數週（即使不是幾個月）。

A pro-bitcoin coalition?

親甲幣聯盟？

Bitcoin was one of the sticking points for Olaf Scholz’s coalition. The president of the Liberal FDP party Christian Lindner harshly criticized the chancellor for having sold more than 50,000 bitcoins at an average price of 57,600 dollars last summer.

比特幣是奧拉夫·索爾茲（Olaf Scholz）聯盟的傑出點之一。自由黨FDP黨的總統克里斯蒂安·林德納（Christian Lindner）嚴厲批評總理，他於去年夏天以57,600美元的平均價格出售了50,000多個比特幣。

The FDP advocates a policy similar to that of the United States. Unfortunately, with less than 5%, the FDP will be absent from the next Bundestag. In contrast, with nearly 21% of the seats, the AfD could have a say, which is potentially good news for bitcoin.

FDP倡導一項與美國類似的政策。不幸的是，下一個聯盟省將缺少FDP的不足5％。相比之下，AFD可能有近21％的席位，這對於比特幣來說是個好消息。

The AfD supports non-draconian regulation, the elimination of capital gains tax, and opposes CBDCs. Knowing that German legislation is already much more favorable than in France since holding bitcoins for more than a year avoids the tax.

AFD支持非多克尼亞法規，消除資本利得稅，並反對CBDC。知道德國立法已經比法國更有利，因為持有比特幣超過一年可以避免稅收。

Given Elon Musk‘s open support for the AfD, it is likely that his position regarding bitcoin will mirror that of the United States. Knowing that Washington has some very good surprises in store on that front.

鑑於埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）對AFD的公開支持，他對比特幣的立場很可能會反映美國的地位。知道華盛頓在這方面有一些非常好的驚喜。

There are rumors that Donald Trump’s government will create a national reserve of bitcoins while abolishing capital gains tax. And this is after already allowing banks to hold bitcoins on behalf of their clients.

有傳言說，唐納德·特朗普的政府將在廢除資本利得稅的同時創建一個國家的比特幣儲備。這是在允許銀行代表其客戶持有比特幣之後。

Another telling sign is that most members of the Trump government own bitcoins. What do they know that we don’t…

另一個有說服力的信號是，特朗普政府的大多數人都擁有比特幣。他們知道我們不知道什麼...

Who will be the next chancellor?

誰將成為下一個總理？

Friedrich Merz, a former business lawyer and multimillionaire banker. His time at BlackRock is encouraging since the giant investment fund is extremely favorable to bitcoin. His membership on the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum is less thrilling.

弗里德里希·梅爾斯（Friedrich Merz）是前商業律師和千萬富翁銀行家。他在貝萊克（Blackrock）的時光令人鼓舞，因為巨頭投資基金對比特幣極為有利。他在世界經濟論壇董事會上的會員資格並不那麼激動。

It will all depend on the colors of the coalition government. Mr. Merz notably sparked controversy two weeks ago after relying on the AfD to pass immigration restrictions. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to protest.

這完全取決於聯合政府的顏色。梅爾斯先生在依靠AFD通過移民限制後，引發了兩週前引發爭議。成千上萬的人上街抗議。

And although he has promised not to form a coalition with the AfD, less than half of German voters believe it according to The Economist. Indeed, allying with the SPD already seems out of the question.

儘管他已承諾不要與AFD結成聯盟，但不到一半的德國選民認為這是經濟學家的說法。確實，與SPD的盟友似乎已經不可能了。

The second option would be to form a large coalition which could prove fragile. Mr. Merz hopes to conclude negotiations by Easter (April 20). The third option would be to enter into an alliance with the AfD.

第二種選擇是組建一個可能證明脆弱的大聯盟。梅爾斯先生希望在復活節之前（4月20日）結束談判。第三種選擇是與AFD結盟。

After all, Mr. Merz stated that he could envision working closely with Giorgia Meloni who is well to the right of the political spectrum. Not to mention that the United States will exert pressure in favor of the AfD.

畢竟，梅爾斯先生說，他可以設想與喬治·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）緊密合作，後者符合政治範圍的權利。更不用說美國會為AFD施加壓力。

As things unfold, all eyes turn to Washington and its strategic reserve of bitcoins. How could Europe remain idle if the Americans embrace bitcoin?

隨著事情的發展，所有人的目光都轉向華盛頓及其戰略性比特幣儲備。如果美國人擁護比特幣，歐洲如何保持閒置？

On the French side, things remain at a standstill, to put it politely. Our article on the subject: Bitcoin: France ridicules itself a little more

在法國方面，一切都停滯不前，以禮貌地說。我們有關該主題的文章：比特幣：法國嘲笑自己

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Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist

比特幣，地緣政治，經濟和能源記者