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加密货币新闻
2024 年最后一个季度即将到来,人们对大规模牛市的高度期望将让比特币、山寨币和模因币创下历史新高 (ATH)。但我们真的会迎来美好时光吗?还是会面临价格下跌和横盘整理的痛苦?
2024/10/02 22:02
这种价值数万亿美元的加密货币在 2024 年伊始表现出色,第一季度全部三个月都在上涨,整个季度的回报率达到 68.68%
The final quarter of 2024 is here, and with that, traders are looking at the massive bull run that will melt the faces with new all-time highs (ATHs) for Bitcoin, altcoins, and meme coins. But are we really in for a good time ahead or will it be a pain of price drops and sideways action?
2024 年最后一个季度即将到来,交易员们正在关注大规模的牛市,这将使比特币、山寨币和模因币创下历史新高 (ATH)。但我们真的会迎来美好时光吗?还是会面临价格下跌和横盘整理的痛苦?
Well, to determine that, we have to take a deeper look into all that’s going on in the crypto space. So, let’s see!
好吧,为了确定这一点,我们必须更深入地研究加密货币领域正在发生的一切。那么,让我们看看吧!
The Best September for BTC Marks a Green Q3
BTC 最好的九月标志着第三季度的绿色发展
The trillion-dollar cryptocurrency started 2024 on a great note, rising all three months of Q1 to record 68.68% returns in the entire quarter, according to CoinGlass. This was followed by a red Q2, recording 11.92% losses.
根据 CoinGlass 的数据,这种价值数万亿美元的加密货币在 2024 年伊始表现出色,第一季度全部三个月都在上涨,整个季度的回报率达到 68.68%。其次是第二季度的红色,录得 11.92% 的损失。
While Q3 has been green, the gains have been a mere 0.96%. However, it brought us Bitcoin’s strongest September yet.
尽管第三季度表现良好,但涨幅仅为 0.96%。然而,它给我们带来了比特币迄今为止最强劲的九月。
The price of BTC jumped 7.29% last month, the most BTC has ever had in the last 13 September that Bitcoin has had. Of these 12 September, eight have been red, bringing the average returns to the month at negative 3.77%.
上个月,BTC 的价格上涨了 7.29%,这是比特币在 9 月 13 日以来涨幅最大的一次。其中 9 月 12 日有 8 个为红色,使该月的平均回报率为负 3.77%。
But with a green September, BTC/USD is now trading at $64,000, down 13.3% from its peak of $73,740 hit in mid-March. Prior to the weekend, BTC/USD went up to $66,500, amidst monetary easing policies worldwide and institutional investments, before dumping this week just as US equity indexes did.
但随着 9 月份的好转,BTC/美元目前的交易价格为 64,000 美元,较 3 月中旬触及的峰值 73,740 美元下跌了 13.3%。周末之前,在全球货币宽松政策和机构投资的推动下,BTC/美元上涨至 66,500 美元,但本周像美国股指一样出现抛售。
These losses came after Shigeru Ishiba, seen as a monetary policy hawk, was selected as Japan’s new prime minister. However, he is of the view that “monetary policy must remain accommodative as a trend.”
这些损失是在被视为货币政策鹰派的石破茂被选为日本新首相之后发生的。不过,他认为“货币政策必须保持宽松作为趋势”。
Interestingly, late in July, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had a modest rate hike, which triggered an unwinding of the risk-on trades. The global panic in markets, which also saw BTC drop from about $65K to $50K in a matter of a few days, had the central bank reassuring that there won’t be any more hikes this year.
有趣的是,7月底,日本央行(BOJ)小幅加息,引发了风险交易的平仓。全球市场的恐慌导致比特币在几天内从约 6.5 万美元跌至 5 万美元,央行保证今年不会再加息。
The bigger news, however, came from the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, who crashed market expectations that future rate cuts will be as aggressive as the recent 50 basis point cut.
然而,更大的消息来自周一美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔,他打破了市场对未来降息幅度将像最近的 50 个基点一样激进的预期。
A Fresh Wave of Capital Ready to be Injected
新一轮资本注入蓄势待发
The first-rate cut in four years, which sent the BTC price on an uptrend, came from the Fed two weeks ago, which lowered the federal funds rate to the 4.75%-5% range.
美联储两周前将联邦基金利率下调至 4.75%-5% 区间,这是四年来首次降息,导致 BTC 价格上涨。
Lower US rates typically lead to a weakening US Dollar, and with USD being the primary quote asset for BTC, it leads to higher prices for the largest crypto asset. Also, by making holding cash less attractive and stimulating the economy, it moves investors into riskier assets like Bitcoin.
美国利率下降通常会导致美元走软,而美元是比特币的主要报价资产,这会导致最大的加密资产的价格上涨。此外,通过降低持有现金的吸引力并刺激经济,它会将投资者转向比特币等风险较高的资产。
Around the same time, China also announced its biggest monetary and fiscal stimulus since the pandemic to help boost the country's economy and markets. The unveiling of the broader-than-expected package came last week that offers rate cuts and more funding to help the world's second-largest economy achieve its growth target.
大约在同一时间,中国还宣布了自疫情大流行以来最大规模的货币和财政刺激措施,以帮助提振国家经济和市场。上周公布了超出预期的一揽子计划,其中包括降息和提供更多资金,以帮助世界第二大经济体实现其增长目标。
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also introduced new tools to boost the capital market. This includes a swap program the size of an initial 500 billion yuan that will allow brokers, funds, and insurers easier access to funding to buy stocks and as much as 300 bln yuan in cheap loans to banks so that they can fund share purchases and buybacks of other entities.
中国人民银行(PBOC)还推出了新工具来提振资本市场。其中包括一项初始规模为 5000 亿元人民币的掉期计划,该计划将使券商、基金和保险公司更容易获得购买股票的资金,并向银行提供高达 3000 亿元人民币的廉价贷款,以便它们为股票购买和回购提供资金其他实体的。
Given that Chinese traders are known for their high-risk tolerance, increased demand from Chinese traders is expected to send crypto prices higher in the long run.
鉴于中国交易者以高风险承受能力而闻名,从长远来看,中国交易者需求的增加预计将推高加密货币价格。
Meanwhile, in the US, Powell has disappointed the hopes of many investors that the Fed would implement yet another steep half-point rate reduction before the year ends.
与此同时,在美国,鲍威尔令许多投资者失望,他们希望美联储在年底前再次大幅降息半个百分点。
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” said Powell, noting that there’s no preset course and the decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”
鲍威尔表示:“展望未来,如果经济大体按照预期发展,政策将随着时间的推移转向更加中立的立场。”他指出,没有预设路线,决策将“逐次会议”做出。
Rate cuts are still in the pipeline, though, just at a measured pace to support an economy, which Powell says is healthy.
不过,降息仍在酝酿之中,只是以适度的步伐来支持经济,鲍威尔称经济健康。
“Overall, the economy is in solid shape. We intend to use our tools to keep it there.”
“总体而言,经济状况稳健。我们打算使用我们的工具将其保留在那里。”
– Powell
——鲍威尔
The Fed’s next rate decision will be its November policy meeting, which will come right after the presidential election. According to prediction market Polymarket, betters are giving a 25 bps rate cut in November, a 63% chance of happening. CME FedWatch, meanwhile, puts it at almost 40%.
美联储的下一次利率决定将是在总统大选之后召开的 11 月政策会议。据预测市场 Polymarket 预测,11 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性为 63%。与此同时,CME FedWatch 预计该比例接近 40%。
So, Uptober
所以,厄普托伯
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